As the newest College Football Playoff rankings settle in, no storyline looms larger than the possibility of a historic outcome: the Group of 5 landing not one, but two playoff teams. Tulane, North Texas, and James Madison, each ranked inside the Top 25, now sit on the doorstep of breaking the system open.
How the Group of 5 Can Get Two Teams In
Under the CFP structure, the five highest-ranked conference champions earn automatic bids. With Tulane, North Texas, and James Madison all ranked ahead of Duke entering championship weekend, the door swings open if the right combination occurs.
The path looks like this:
- Winner of Tulane vs. North Texas (AAC Championship): Auto-bid secured.
- James Madison wins the Sun Belt Championship: Second G5 contender locked.
- Duke upsets Virginia in the ACC Championship: Opens the ACC’s slot for another G5 team.
With Tulane, North Texas, and James Madison all earning top 25 rankings this week, unprecedented possibilities emerge (percentages via PFSN’s Playoff Meter):
- Tulane: 61.2% CFP chance
- James Madison: 30.3% CFP chance
- North Texas: 8.5% CFP chance
That last point is the entire hinge of the scenario.
Why Duke Is the Key to CFP Chaos
Duke enters at 7–5, outside the Top 25, and far behind all three G5 contenders. Jumping three ranked teams with stronger résumés isn’t realistic. Meanwhile, a 10–2 Virginia would immediately secure a playoff spot as a higher-ranked conference champion. So the breakdown is simple:
- If Virginia wins: ACC secures its playoff spot; only one G5 team gets in.
- If Duke wins: ACC collapses, giving the Group of 5 a path to two bids.
- Virginia (10–2, 7–1): CFP chance 64% (according to PFSN Playoff Meter)
- Duke (7–5, 6–2): CFP chance 36%
This would be an unprecedented moment. Duke’s win would remove the ACC champion from the ranking tier needed to earn an auto-bid, leaving the committee little choice but to award spots to both the AAC champion and James Madison (assuming they win).
Why James Madison Matters Most
James Madison already enters conference championship weekend inside the Top 25. Combined with an AAC champion already ranked, the G5 has the strongest collective résumé it has ever had at this stage of the season.
If JMU wins the Sun Belt and Duke beats Virginia, the G5’s path becomes nearly airtight.
The ACC’s Nightmare Scenario
An ACC without a playoff participant in the second year of the 12-team format would be catastrophic. Duke, a 7–5 team with three nonconference losses, is not positioned to jump into the playoff field even with a conference title.
The ACC’s playoff hopes now rest entirely on Virginia. A Duke victory would leave the conference champion outside the Top 25, guarantee the AAC champion an automatic bid, and likely open a second automatic bid or at-large path for James Madison.
This would make the ACC the first Power 5 conference ever left out of the 12-team playoff.
A Historic Moment for the Group of 5
If Duke pulls off the upset and James Madison wins its championship game, the Group of 5 could achieve something once thought impossible: two teams in the College Football Playoff.
After years of being overlooked for national relevance, the G5 finally has the ranking strength, résumé support, and structural opportunity to break through.
For Tulane, North Texas, and James Madison, championship weekend isn’t just about winning titles; it’s about changing the playoff landscape forever.
