The Alabama Crimson Tide were projected to have a reasonably strong chance of making the 12-team CFB Playoff field — but a disastrous 28-7 loss to Georgia, both in scope and magnitude, has shifted their outlook in dramatic fashion. Where do they stand now?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Alabama’s updated chances of playing in the CFB Playoff, as well as Georgia’s likely landing spot.
What are Alabama’s CFB Playoff Chances After SEC Championship Collapse vs. Georgia?
Ahead of the SEC Championship, the PFSN College FPM had given Alabama a 55.8% chance of making the CFB Playoffs, and a 55.8% chance of coming out on top over Georgia and earning the automatic bid.
Now, after the catastrophe that was the SEC Championship game, Alabama has a 0% chance of making the CFB Playoff, according to the PFSN College FPM’s calculations. And any last-second entry to the 12-team CFB Playoff field would take a controversial level of coping and capitulation from the CFB Playoff committee.
This wasn’t the same Georgia team that stumbled to a 24-21 defeat at the hands of the Crimson Tide back in September, however — or perhaps it wasn’t the same Crimson Tide team that controlled the previous conference matchup from the very start.
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On offense, Alabama looked out-of-sync, and quarterback Ty Simpson struggled to find a rhythm or consistently string together drives. And on defense, Georgia kept things quick and efficient, forced Alabama to patrol the flats and pursue to the boundary, and controlled the tempo of the game.
The second-worst thing that could’ve happened to Alabama on Saturday was losing the SEC Championship to Georgia. The worst thing was looking as pathetic as they did while doing it.
As it stood, the Crimson Tide could scarcely afford one more loss on their track record, after losing to Florida State and Oklahoma in the regular season.
The PFSN College FPM gave Alabama a 0% chance of earning an At-Large spot pre-title game — only because relying on an At-Large bid would dictate that Alabama did not get the automatic bid, and instead got a third loss at Mercedez-Benz Stadium.
Had Alabama remained 10-2, with one SEC loss and a win against Georgia, they would stand more of a chance against Notre Dame and Miami in the At-Large tiebreaker.
But a third loss — and a lopsided one at that — sets Alabama back in At-Large positioning, simultaneously steals away their chance at an automatic bid, and leaves a very, very sour taste in the mouths of Committee members — the same Committee members who have ruled before that recent performance and where a team stands ahead of the postseason matters.
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The CFB Playoff Committee has displayed deference to Alabama before; they chose 12-1 Alabama over 13-0 Florida State for the final spot in the 2023 CFB Playoffs. However, now that Alabama has shown themselves in such a state of dysfunction in the SEC title game, and now that their record is worse, the arguments for their inclusion are wavering.
As for Georgia, the Bulldogs are locked into the 2-seed with the SEC Championship victory at just one loss on the year. They’ll play the winner of the 7-seed and 10-seed matchup — a matchup that is projected to feature Texas A&M and either Virginia or Miami.
Alabama, after anticipating a CFB Playoff bid for most of the year, now has only a bowl game to look forward to. For the second year in two seasons under Kalen DeBoer’s watch, the Crimson Tide are likely to miss the CFB Playoffs, and the pressure is ramping up for DeBoer to keep the Crimson Tide in contention in 2026.
