The Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are locked into a heated competition for the division title, with two matchups against each other in the final three weeks of the season. The first contest comes this Sunday in Charlotte, NC. Three pivotal areas of the game could ultimately determine the outcome.
‘Twas the day before Week 16, as the Panthers battle for the NFC South. Here are three things to watch for, from the seat of your couch.
The Carolina Panthers’ Passing Game vs. Buccaneers’ Secondary
The Carolina Panthers’ offensive identity is tough, run-first football. The duo of Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard, combined with the physicality of the offensive line, drives the offense. However, as Carolina (7-7) takes to the field against Tampa Bay (7-7) on Sunday, they could look to rev up the passing game more than they typically do.
This potential shift comes as the Buccaneers’ passing defense ranks 30th in the NFL, allowing an average of 246.9 yards per game through the air. Conversely, the Panthers’ passing offense ranks 25th overall, averaging 183.4 yards per game.
The last time Carolina and Tampa Bay played (Week 13 last season) in Charlotte, the Bucs came away with the overtime victory, but Bryce Young threw for a season-high 298 yards. Over the last four games this season, Young is averaging 8.2 yards per attempt compared to his season-long mark of 6.5.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Young’s four games with at least three touchdowns thrown tie for fourth-most in the league this season. That’s double the amount of such games that Young had in his combined first two seasons, and the most by a Carolina quarterback in a single season since Cam Newton in 2017.
Jalen Coker has had a 30+ yard touchdown reception in back-to-back games, as he’s found a groove and an integral role in the offense over the last few weeks. If Coker sees most of his action from the slot, he’s likely to often matchup against Tampa Bay’s rookie nickel Jacob Parrish. Parrish ranks 106th overall in qualified cornerbacks, per PFSN CBi, with a 64.3 score.
Tetairoa McMillan has found a lot of his success aligned on the left side of the formation. Per Next Gen Stats, four out of six of his touchdowns and 38 receptions for 618 yards have come from the left side. His 22 receptions of 10+ air yards on the left side are the second-most in the NFL.
On the defensive side, Buccaneers’ Jamel Dean has aligned as the outside cornerback on the right side for 95.1% of his snaps this season, allowing just seven completions on downfield targets (10+ air yards). He’s yet to surrender a touchdown on those types of targets.
Can Carolina Knock the Chip Off Baker Mayfield’s Shoulder?
When defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero spoke to the media on Thursday, he was asked about last season’s matchups against Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He recalled not getting enough pressure on Mayfield in critical moments for the Week 13 home loss, and mentioned the same in the road loss as well.
“As you can see”, Evero noted, “the common theme is that to affect this quarterback, we’re [Panthers] going to have to get him [Mayfield] off his spot. We’re going to have to get some pressure on him.” That’s going to be a significant challenge for this Panthers’ defensive unit.
Carolina currently ranks dead last in quarterback pressure rate (25.7%) in the league. Tampa Bay is allowing QBP at a 33.3% rate (15th). Mayfield has had a good season, although perhaps not as exemplary as his 2024 performance.
His 61.2% completion rate ranks 26th among qualified quarterbacks, according to Next Gen Stats. One of the Panthers’ best defensive metrics this season has been their effectiveness against play-action passes, where they allow the second-fewest yards per attempt (5.9) and the fifth-lowest completion percentage (60.4%). Tampa Bay only executes play-action on 22% of its passes (tied for the sixth-lowest rate).
Mayfield loves to bend an ear about how he has had to overcome doubters and multiple obstacles throughout his career. Carolina will look to bend the arc and collapse the pocket, to avoid being the subject of another one of Mayfield’s bulletin board soliloquies.
“The challenge is, he’s one of the great competitors in this league for certain”, Evero says of Mayfield, “and so he’s going to fight, he’s going to will, his teammates are going to follow him because of just the competitive nature that he displays.”
Panthers’ Offensive Line vs. Buccaneers’ Pressure and Run Defense
Tampa Bay has sent extra defenders on 34.6% of opponents’ backs in 2025, good for the fourth-highest blitz rate across the league, while producing pressure on 52.6% of those opportunities, per Next Gen Stats. The Buccaneers have amassed 66 unblocked pressures this season — a league-best number that’s ten more than the closest team.
Left tackle Ikem Ekwonu (knee) is questionable for the contest. If he can’t go on Sunday, Yosh Nijman is in line to get the start. Nijman has started one game at left tackle for Carolina this season in the season-opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He allowed six pressures on 43 pass blocking reps in that game.
The Buccaneers have one of the best interior defensive linemen in the league on their roster in Vita Vea. He’s accumulated 28 total tackles (six TFL) and 4.5 sacks this season. Vea penetrates the line of scrimmage as a pass rusher and run defender, placing a high level of urgency on the interior offensive line for Carolina.
Tampa Bay has the tenth-best rushing defense, allowing opponents 101.4 yards on the ground per game. Carolina will look to counter that facet with its No. 9 rushing offense (125.6 yards per game).
