Fantasy Football Week 16 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Playoff Edition

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help each of you with your specific fantasy football questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on X, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers | PIT (at CLE)

It took Aaron Rodgers 41 passes (27 completions) to reach 266 passing yards against the Lions on Sunday. If not for a beyond-fortune bounce that resulted in a 45-yard score to Kenneth Gainwell, we would be talking about a game with zero scores and around 200 yards despite reasonable volume.

That said, Arthur Smith is extending this offense a touch, and Rodgers is making it work. His nine completions past the sticks last week were not just a season high; they were more than he had in December.

Sadly, it’s too little too late. His pocket-locked, low-octane skill set just isn’t going to cut it in fantasy 2025. He’s struggled to give us anything in the way of usable production, and that’s unlikely to change against an above-average defense.

Rodgers is playing better than he did early in the season, but that doesn’t make him a viable streaming option as your league comes to an end, especially with the monster that is DK Metcalf on the shelf after being suspended by the league on Monday.

Baker Mayfield | TB (at MIA)

I’m old enough to remember when Baker Mayfield was getting MVP steam, both in the betting markets and in fantasy circles.

He cleared 17 fantasy points in six straight to open the season and looked like a dual threat that was going to leverage a strong supporting cast into a surprise top-8-or-so finish at the position.

Injuries around him certainly haven’t helped, but regardless of where you want to put the blame, he’s failed to reach 15 fantasy points in four of his past five and has failed to throw for 200 yards seven times this season.

This matchup and the Bucs’ motivation are what make Mayfield a top-10 play for me this week. There’s no form to speak of, but we have seen him score over 19 fantasy points in the majority of Tampa Bay’s victories this season, and that is my expectation for this contest.

Bo Nix | DEN (at KC)

Bo Nix got the rate game script bump last week, and that resulted in season highs in pass attempts (47) and pass yards (352) against the Jags.

Despite all of the volume, he had just the one touchdown pass to speak of, and that has been a problem of late. He lit up the Packers in Week 15, but if you remove that game, his most recent four games have him throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions on 167 attempts.

That’s inefficient at a crazy level.

From a holistic perspective, I like where this profile is headed. This was a big game, and he led an offense that saw seven players record multiple catches, with four reaching four receptions.

There are some bumps every week, but he’s trending in the right direction and is in the right offensive environment to develop. Would I feel great about playing him in Kansas City this week?

No. The range of outcomes is wider than what I’m comfortable with, and not much may be asked of him if the version of the Chiefs that we saw last week is the version that takes the field here.

Nix isn’t a player you need to blindly avoid, but I would take a look at the wire and check out the matchups.

Brock Purdy | SF (vs CHI)

Here he comes.

On a per-pass basis, Brock Purdy is one of the most efficient we’ve ever seen, something he’s proven in his past two games (48-of-64 for 590 yards, eight touchdowns, and one interception).

Kyle Shanahan scripted up a gem of a plan, and Purdy was essentially flawless in his execution with more touchdown passes (three) than incompletions (two) on the first three possessions.

The Bears are the fifth-worst defense in terms of yards per play, and with Chicago covering up that flaw with a developing offense, this could be a fun game that leaves fantasy points in the stockings of all involved.

I prefer the floor of Purdy over the ceiling of Caleb Williams in this matchup, but I have both ranked as QB1s and would be comfortable with them deciding my fate.

Bryce Young | CAR (vs SEA)

We aren’t there yet, but it certainly feels like we have an opportunity to get there at some point in 2026.

Bryce Young has failed to reach 18 points in 10 of 14 games, but there are moments in most of those contests that look the part, and this team has invested in high-pedigree talent to add upside to this unit.

Last week, in the biggest start of his Young career, we saw sharp RPO decisions, implicit trust with his top receiver, and a feel for the moment. He’s not an elite athlete, but he’s capable of threatening defenses, and if this offense can establish balance, it’s not hard to see Young landing in our top-15 with regularity next season.

I’m a fan, and even I can’t express any optimism in this spot. I know what Matthew Stafford did to Seattle last week, but I don’t care. Six times this season, they have held a QB to under 14 fantasy points: I suspect they add to that total this week.

I’ll be buying 2026 stock the second this game ends.

C.J. Stroud | HOU (at LAC)

The Texans aren’t going to ask C.J. Stroud to put up fantasy numbers, and that’s the main reason I’ve been hesitant for two months now in betting on him.

I think there’s an above-average profile to chase in the right situation, but the better the Texans play, the worse it is for Stroud’s value (six games under 210 passing yards this season, one or fewer TD tosses in four of his past five games).

The Chargers blitz as rarely as any team in the NFL, and that means we are likely to see plenty of dink-and-dunks. His aDOT has decreased each season of his career, and while we get the occasional vertical shot for Nico Collins, he will need to hit on at an elite rate of those to make him worth our time.

Stroud is what the Texans need to threaten in January, but he’s not what you need to get your championship-bound roster to the finish line.

Caleb Williams | CHI (at SF)

I don’t want to be a prisoner of the moment, but how many games with a sub-56% completion rate have been more impressive this season than what Caleb Williams authored against the rival Packers on Saturday night?

In a game without Rome Odunze (foot) and Luther Burden (ankle), Williams matched a season high with 16 passes thrown past the sticks. He also had multiple passing scores when pressure was applied for the first time (four such TD passes over the past three weeks after having just two prior).

It’s hard to overstate the growth that is happening here under Ben Johnson. His aDOT is higher post-Halloween than it was prior, and yet, he’s thrown just two interceptions over that stretch. He’s threatening defenses vertically in a smart way that isn’t compromising the scoring equity of this offense as a whole.

Oh yeah, and he’s a plus athlete. He now has a 12+ yard run in eight games this season, and he truly looks like a Tier 2 signal caller. He’s not on the level of the elite, but is he capable of doing 85% of what they do, both with his arm and legs?

I’m playing Williams as a top 10 option this week and expect this to be a trend, not a flash in the pan, for those looking ahead to 2026.

Cameron Ward | TEN (vs NO)

Cam Ward has three multi-pass TD games this season.

Cam Ward has three straight multi-pass-TD games.

It doesn’t always work this cleanly, but in this instance, the growth is easy to track. The speed of the pro game clearly was an issue early on (57.6% complete with more interceptions than touchdowns before the Week 10 bye), but as you’d expect from a quick study, high-pedigree prospect, he’s progressed.

Weeks 11-16

• 63.9% complete
• 8 TD passes
• 1 INT

It’s far from perfect, and the supporting cast needs an upgrade before Ward is anywhere close to our redraft radars. Still, dynasty managers should be encouraged by everything that this season has brought: they have an asset whose stock is on the rise, but not so much that the Titans have played themselves out of adding more quality talent in the upcoming draft.

Dak Prescott | DAL (at WAS)

This season obviously hasn’t gone to script for the Cowboys, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a Dak Prescott manager who isn’t happy with the return on their investment.

He completed six of seven passes on the first drive with a touchdown strike to Ryan Flournoy, fueling his fifth time in six games with over 18 fantasy points.

The rushing is to be viewed as a bonus at this point in the career of the 32-year-old, but the arm is just fine, something he showcased on the absolute dime that he laid on George Pickens from 38 yards out last weekend against the Chargers.

If you guys felt nostalgic about Phillip Rivers, highly encourage you watch/study Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes as much as you can. https://t.co/u6QemTVUdE

— Max Toscano (@maxtoscano1) December 24, 2025

He’s looking to become the first Cowboy ever to lead the NFL in passing yards, and I expect him to take a nice step in that direction against a Commanders defense that he lit up back in October (264 yards and three scores on his 30 pass attempts).

Among the QBs with nothing to play for in terms of the standings, Prescott is as good as it gets with your Super Bowl on the line. Hopefully, you have him stacked, something I’ll prioritize in 2026 if/when I draft a QB who doesn’t weaponize his legs.

Drake Maye | NE (at NYJ)

After the comeback win on Sunday night, Drake Maye has now cleared 20 fantasy points in three straight games and eight times this year. He’s leaning into his mobility in a meaningful way for both the Patriots and us (12+ rushing yards in 10 of his past 11 games, with a single carry picking up at least a dozen yards in seven of those contests). While he may not have the most talented pass-catching room, he’s playing into his teammates’ strengths.

Case in point: the 37-yard strike to Kyle Williams for the touchdown. Ask those around you to do what they are comfortable with, and it’s amazing how high the output can be when there are complementary skill sets in hand. Maye’s average touchdown pass this season has gained 19.5 yards, back-breaking plays that a handful of his teammates are capable of making.

Let’s not complicate things here. The Jets rank 31st in pressure rate this season (29.4%) and are big underdogs. In New England’s last two wins (victories over the Giants and Ravens), their second-year signal caller is a cool 41-of-50 for 493 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions when not pressured.

If Maye isn’t your QB1 this week, he’s on the very short list.

Gardner Minshew | KC (vs DEN)

The matchup with the Titans was promising, but with Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton both dealing with concussion protocols, Gardner Minshew wasn’t exactly working with Grade A talent.

He completed just three of eight passes (two to Isiah Pacheco) before being ruled out for the rest of the game due to a knee injury suffered in the second quarter. This is truly an example of a team just trying to finish its season, and that means counting on anyone attached to it is risky at best, and “reckless” might be a better descriptive word.

Geno Smith | LV (vs NYG)

Geno Smith returned from a shoulder/back issue that cost him Week 15 and showed well for himself in Houston after an early Pick-6. For the day, he averaged 8.7 yards per pass and had a pair of touchdown tosses, just his second multi-score effort since early November.

He was perfect when throwing to Brock Bowers (5-33-1) and exploited an Ashton Jeanty mismatch for a 60-yard splash play. Use this as a reminder that good offensive players (like those two in Vegas) are capable of beating even the best defense in today’s game. Matchups matter, but so does talent, and I think we sometimes lose track of that.

Even a good day from Smith doesn’t land him as a viable option in our game, so there’s nothing to see here, but the lesson from Week 16 is a valuable one to keep in mind when building out future rosters or structuring a DFS team.

J.J. McCarthy | MIN (vs DET)

A hand injury prevented JJ McCarthy from taking the field in the second half against the Giants last week. He wasn’t great before getting lit up at the end of the second quarter (nine-of-14 for 108 yards and an interception that Jalen Nailor played into a pick; it wasn’t his fault). Still, he did connect on four passes to Justin Jefferson, showing a level of comfort with his WR1 that has been lacking.

He did add a 12-yard touchdown scramble that you could argue was a bit reckless, but there is certainly some Baker Mayfield in this profile. With this season lost and no need to push him, there’s no need to look in this direction even if he is ruled active for this weekend …

… but I wouldn’t sleep on him for 2026.

Jacoby Brissett | ARI (at CIN)

It was a good run while it lasted.

Fantasy Finishes, Weeks 6-15

• Week 6: QB7
• Week 7: QB12
• Week 8: bye
• Week 9: QB10
• Week 10: QB9
• Week 11: QB4
• Week 12: QB7
• Week 13: QB10
• Week 14: QB12
• Week 15: QB12

That’s not to say that the Jacoby Brissett gravy train is off the tracks, but he did look much more human last week against the Falcons (16-31 for 203 yards with a TD and an INT). What made it happen?

The Atlanta pressure got to him.

On 10 pressured dropbacks, Brissett completed just two passes and was sacked twice. Maybe they created something of a blueprint, but the thing about blueprints is that execution is difficult.

The Bengals are pacing to be a bottom-10 pressure defense for a second straight season, and that’s why I’m comfortable going back to Brissett in all formats. He’s my QB7 in this spot, so yes, I think you can put the fate of your strong fantasy season in the hands of a 33-year-old journeyman.

I don’t know how you don’t love this game.

Jalen Hurts | PHI (at BUF)

A couple of false starts on Tush Push opportunities cost Jalen Hurts managers points, but he did end up with multiple passing touchdowns for the third time in four games and funneled 69% of his targets to his two dynamic receivers.

That’ll work.

We saw Hurts complete 71.4% of his passes last postseason and was efficient down the stretch of that regular season as well, proof that this offense can put together a viable passing attack when called upon.

They’ve clinched the division and only have some much seeding mobility: I don’t think you’re at risk of losing meaningful snaps, but it is at least worth noting that we aren’t looking at a high motivation spot.

Even with that factored in, Hurts is a starter in all formats for me.

Jared Goff | DET (at MIN)

The Lions’ run game has disappeared lately, and that’s resulted in Jared Goff absolutely cutting it loose.

He has multiple TD passes in four of his past five and has cleared 300 yards through the air in three straight. What has been steering his recent success, at least for fantasy purposes, has been when he’s been pushing the chains.

Over the past two weeks, he’s completed 23-of-29 passes for four touchdowns and zero interceptions on balls thrown past the sticks. And guess what?

The Vikes allow 53.4% of those passes to be completed, the eighth-highest mark in the NFL.

We saw Goff throw for 284 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the first meeting with Minnesota, and I think a similar stat line is the most likely outcome this time around. That production would give him a good shot to finish championship week as a top-12 QB and keep you competitive in most situations.

Jaxson Dart | NYG (at LV)

I feel good about saying that Jaxson Dart will be ranked as a fantasy asset next season, but the future isn’t right now.

The Giants aren’t going to be able to take the maniac out of him completely, but they’ve clipped his wings with nothing left to play for, and it would appear that he, to some degree, understands that.

If we get a game next season, with a healthy Malik Nabers, where New York runs the ball 15 times before their franchise QB attempts a pass, it’ll inspire what might be a 1,000-word rant in this space on my end.

It ain’t happening.

We’ve seen Caleb Williams take a huge step forward this season through a coaching change. I don’t think we need to see something that drastic for Dart to be a top-10 QB with consistency in 2026: give him a healthy roster, and I think we get there.

Joe Burrow | CIN (vs ARI)

Joe Montana technically is “Joe Cool,” but he played before fantasy was a thing, so I think we can recycle the nickname.

Playing into that label was his ability to elevate his game at the perfect time. If you’ve rostered Burrow at any point recently on a competitive team, what I’m about to tell you will not surprise you.

This man, despite various injuries to and around him, has at least three touchdown passes in eight of his past nine starts during the fantasy playoffs. If that doesn’t earn you nickname privileges, I’m not sure what does.

Ja’Marr Chase was featured in a major way, and Tee Higgins didn’t look the least bit affected by the recent concussions. It’s taken patience, but we are back to the shootout Bengals at the perfect time: there’s no harm in counting on Joe Cool to get you to the finish line.

Jordan Love | GB (vs BAL)

Jordan Love wasn’t exactly lighting up the Bears on Saturday night before taking the head-on sack that resulted in him not finishing the first half or returning after halftime.

He has just four top-10 finishes at the position this season, so hopefully you’re not relying on him in a major way at this point, but Malik Willis (shoulder) isn’t a bad streaming option if you’re in a tough spot and he’s active. He brings with him the type of plus-athleticism that is a cheat code in our game, and there’s a chance this game shoots out in a big way.

“Packers QB” will be ranked as a top-12 play for me this week, provided that Love or Willis is active.

Josh Allen | BUF (vs PHI)

The Bills had the ball for under 25 minutes, and James Cook was running hot (117 yards and two TDs on 16 carries), a combination of events that resulted in a rare off-fantasy game for the reigning MVP.

You hate to see it in Week 16, but if you managed to advance, you shouldn’t hesitate for even a second this week. If you’ve been riding Josh Allen (an in-game foot injury was checked out but resulted in no missed time), you are likely a fan of the direction of this team. Before last week, their star QB was averaging 27.2 fantasy PPG in victories: the floor/ceiling tandem is unlike what any other quarterback has access to.

Justin Herbert | LAC (vs HOU)

Justin Herbert was outright surgical against the Cowboys last week (23-29 for 300 yards and two scores) and cleared six points as a rusher for the fourth time in an eight-game stretch.

You know about the big-name weapons, but how about gains of 11 and 34 yards to Tre’ Harris in the first drive? Quentin Johnston was inactive in Week 15, but Herbert showed no hesitation in looking his way in single coverage spots.

And then you had the Ladd McConkey wheel route TD, where it was clear that Herbert saw the game slow down, something so many of the greats say occurs when you’re truly comfortable.

The sky is the limit for this kid, and I’m excited to see what he can do in this tough matchup. Last week, he completed 7-of-10 passes against the blitz (completion rate against the blitz before this season: 45.5%), proving himself capable of making a weakness of a strength.

This might be the first time I’ve ranked a QB inside my top 15 against the Texans this season, and it doesn’t feel like a hot take.

Kirk Cousins | ATL (vs LAR)

Kirk Cousins has multiple passing scores in consecutive games and even converted a QB sneak into a score in Arizona last week.

It doesn’t matter.

In a plus-spot against the Cards with Drake London back, Cousins averaged 5.6 yards per pass. He misfired on seven of his eight field-stretching throws, something that simply can’t be the case for a pocket-locked signal caller whose primary weapon is one of the most dangerous big-play threats in the league.

Cousins has been good for the stock of Kyle Pitts, and the hope is that he can get Drake London one big game before the season ends. If he can do those things, mission accomplished. There’s no reason to bet on Cousins himself to return anything close to top-12 production.

Lamar Jackson | BAL (at GB)

Lamar Jackson suffered what is being labeled as a “significant” back contusion, but the Ravens may roll him out there on Saturday with their season on the line.

He’s already missed three games this season and has been active but absent for the majority of this season (four games under eight fantasy points and yet to have a 30-point effort).

I think we are at a point where you move on. That’s obviously hard to do, but a compromised version of a struggling QB isn’t exactly where I want my fate sitting.

Tyler Shough is currently my highest-ranked option available in many leagues, with Malik Willis looming if Jordan Love (concussion) is ruled out.

The value of Jackson will be a fun project this summer. My intuition is that his value will dip, but not as much as most are hoping. Unless they add a receiver, he won’t be in my top tier at the position.

Marcus Mariota | WAS (vs DAL)

Marcus Mariota was tested for a concussion after being slung to the ground and having his hand stepped on in the third quarter of the loss to the Eagles on Saturday.

Not an ideal run out.

He passed through the concussion protocol but remained sidelined for the rest of the game in favor of Josh Johnson.

If the Commanders had something to play for, I’d be interested in this matchup with access to a strong WR1 behind a defense that struggles to stop anyone. But that’s not the case, and with health hurdles now a part of the picture, I think it’s Terry McLaurin or bust when looking at this offense in Week 17.

Matthew Stafford | LAR (at ATL)

The Rams couldn’t move the ball on the ground in any way on Thursday night in Seattle, and that helped fuel a high Puka Nacua target game.

That’s all a Matthew Stafford manager can realistically hope for.

In the overtime loss, 12 of his 29 completions, 16 of his 48 targets, and 225 of his 457 passing yards went to his All-Pro teammate. The one-yard no-look TD was a work of art and the OT score from 41 yards out a reminder of how many ways this connection can gash a defense.

There were highlights peppered throughout this game, and it all resulted in a ninth straight multi-TD pass game for Stafford, the longest such streak since Patrick Mahomes rattled off 14 straight to connect the 2018 and 2019 seasons.

The lack of rushing upside is an obvious pain, but he’s averaging 0.61 points per pass on strong volume with game-breaking talent around him, and that’s worthy of our trust.

I’m comfortable going this way in standard-sized leagues, with nine 20+ point games (six of 25+ points), and the lack of cheap rushing points doesn’t scare me. If you expect the Rams to handle their business as I do, then it’s worth noting that he’s been held under 20 fantasy points in a victory just once over the past two months.

Philip Rivers | IND (vs JAX)

There was the pick-6 that removed all doubt from Monday night against the 49ers, but Philip Rivers went toe-to-toe with Brock Purdy for far longer than any of us expected.

He finished the night with 277 passing yards and two scores, both to Alec Pierce. He completed nine of 13 passes in the first quarter, executing what was laid out in front of him at a high level. The interesting part for me is how he’s done against the blitz.

My instinct wouldn’t be to heat up an old QB like this that lacks mobility and arm strength. But in his two games, he’s 10-of-13 with a TD when the defense sends an extra man.

If defenses instead opt to sit back in coverage, Rivers is less likely to beat them with experience and thus potentially struggle. Anthony Richardson (eye) was designated to return from IR on Thursday, so that’s a moving piece in the evaluation of this offense, but you’re not counting on this passing game if you can help it.

And you very much can help it.

Quinn Ewers | MIA (vs TB)

It wasn’t a work of art from Quinn Ewers in his first career start, that’s for sure, but he did complete 14-of-18 passes on balls thrown under 10 yards downfield.

He cleared 3,400 yards through the air in consecutive seasons at Texas, and I thought we saw some decent things from him despite a 45-21 result in the wrong direction.

The interceptions came when he got too aggressive, and that’s going to happen in a debut. But I thought he largely executed the plan that was handed to him, got Jaylen Waddle as many catches as any of his teammates had targets, and didn’t make the boneheaded play when under pressure (eight pressured dropbacks: four completions and zero turnovers).

He’s a long way away from mattering, but these live reps are good, especially if you think this offense is more talented next season, should he earn a chance to open the season under center.

Sam Darnold | SEA (at CAR)

Sam Darnold has completed 20+ passes in three straight games after having four such games this season prior, so maybe this offense is soft-launching an increase in responsibilities for their QB, but it’s too little too late at this point.

From Weeks 10-15, Darnold had only two top 20 finishes, and with that floor and a vulnerable running defense on the docket, a game like what we saw him give us against the Titans a month ago (244 yards and two TDs) feels like something of a ceiling outcome, and that’s not going to get it done.

Darnold’s INT% when pressured this season (5.6%) is nearly triple that of when he is not pressured (2%), and that’s why Seattle works to establish the run before letting their QB cook. We saw him make plays down the stretch to beat the Rams on Thursday night: that doesn’t change the fact that this team isn’t interested in ramping up his volume to give us a high enough floor to feel good about.

Shedeur Sanders | CLE (vs PIT)

Have we seen enough to label Shedeur Sanders as Cleveland’s 2026 starter?

He executed the pregame script at a high level against the Bills on Sunday (first drive: 5-5 for 58 yards and a touchdown, getting four teammates involved). While there are obvious warts (his first interception was a poorly aimed short pass), there are enough interesting data points to at least pique my interest in what is possible if an offense built around him is more talented.

With over 20 rushing yards in three straight (a single 14+yard carry in each of those starts), I’ve been encouraged by the mobility that we weren’t sure would be a part of the profile.

He’s clearly not an option this week, but if Cleveland can bring in some help, we could be looking at a viable QB2 in superflex settings.

Trevor Lawrence | JAX (at IND)

Better late than never.

Trevor Lawrence has six straight QB1 finishes and looks as comfortable in his own skin as we’ve ever seen at the professional level.

He has four straight with multiple TD passes and zero interceptions, but it goes deeper than that. He’s weaponized his mobility not only with a rushing score in consecutive games, but also by turning his four out-of-pocket completions in those games into 100 yards.

His third own completion percentage is up 11 points from last season and, when throwing past the sticks this season he has 10 TDs against four interceptions (6/6 in 2024).In essence, he’s doing everything better, and with Jakobi Meyers adding depth to this pass-catching core, why would we expect it to change?

Brock Purdy systemically decimated this Colts defense on Monday night: could we see Lawrence become the first AFC QB since 2022 to have three straight games with 275 pass yards, 3 pass TD, and 0 INTs?

Tyler Shough | NO (at TEN)

Tyler Shough is tough as nails and learning on the fly.

That’s not a bad DFS profile, and his opportunity count (40+ pass-plus-rush attempts in four of his past five games) has fueled him to clear 17 fantasy points in four straight. He was once again interested in loading up Chris Olave with as much work as he could handle from the jump (four of his first seven completions went to his standout WR)

Plenty was made of his age coming out of college, but there clearly is some wisdom that has come with that experience. On Sunday, he sent Olave in motion late in the third quarter, identified single coverage, and took advantage by setting up a rub route that left him essentially uncovered for the 23-yard score.

If I’m rolling the dice on a QB with my fantasy title on the line, this is the direction I’m going. Given his advanced age for a rookie, the Saints are trying to accelerate his learning curve, which means volume with a touch of volume.

That’ll work!

It doesn’t have to be perfect to be productive. Ideally, you’re not having to piece together the QB position at this point in the year, but if you are, New Orleans holds your answer in a favorable matchup, albeit on the road.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN (vs DET)

Aaron Jones hasn’t exactly set the bar high this season, and while his picking up 93 yards on 23 touches was a fine performance against the Giants, what is the realistic upside in this matchup?

• Weeks 1-12: 93.4% gain rate, 11.5% of rushes have gained 10+ yards
• Weeks 13-16: 79.2% gain rate, 7.5% of rushes have gained 10+ yards

Jordan Mason and Jones both suffered ankle injuries in the win, but Mason didn’t return, leaving the veteran to do the heavy lifting. If he finds himself in the unquestioned lead role again, Jones would be a flexible asset. There isn’t much of a ceiling, but we just saw Detroit struggle to get off the field last week because of its struggles defending the run, and we know Minnesota has no interest in a shootout.

If Mason is set to play, Jones is still the better play, but his appeal lessens because sheer volume is the primary driver of our interest in him.

Alvin Kamara | NO (at TEN)

Alvin Kamara missed a fourth straight game with this knee/ankle injury, and there’s little reason to think that the 30-year-old is going to return in a meaningful way (if at all) for fantasy managers.

The veteran back is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season and hasn’t earned more than three targets in a game since the first half of October. The one-time fantasy difference maker has been unable to return any value for the majority of the season, and a potentially compromised version of him is unlikely to reverse that trend.

New Orleans has shown some fight down the stretch with a young nucleus: I’m anticipating that they lean into that over the final few weeks of the season, and that means that Kamara, even if deemed healthy enough to play, won’t project for enough work as part of a well-below-average offense to crack lineups.

Ashton Jeanty | LV (vs NYG)

Before Sunday, Ashton Jeanty hadn’t had a 15-yard rush since September ended, but he hit the Texans for touchdowns of 51 (rush) and 60 (reception) yards, reminding us all of the profile that made him the sixth overall pick last April.

The touchdowns differed in the skills required, both beautiful in their own way. The long catch was a vertical route, where the Raiders allowed him to run a route in space, and the rush showed the elite balance we often saw during his time in college.

Over the past two weeks, in road games against the Eagles and Texans, Jeanty has picked up yardage on 31 of 33 carries. Every player develops on his own timeline, and with the Raiders giving their star running back some support, we are seeing what is possible.

I’ve got him ranked as an RB1 this week, and if he can carry over this recent momentum, could he sneak his way into fantasy first rounds this summer if Vegas adds talent up front?

Audric Estime | NO (at TEN)

If the Saints wanted to feature Audric Estime in a way that would interest us, they would have made it clear on Sunday.

They did not.

First Half Rushing Data vs NYJ

• Taysom Hill: 6 carries for 21 yards (fumble lost)
• Evan Hall: 4 carries for 0 yards
• Estime: 3 carries for 10 yards
• Tyler Shough: 1 carry for 4 yards

With Devin Neal and Alvin Kamara out, it was Taysom Hill with the first carry of the game. He lost a fumble on that effort, and it didn’t matter. The offensive weapon led the team in carries and rush yards while ranked third in receptions, receiving yards, and targets.

If you want to get cute and slide Hill into your TE spot, I don’t hate it. But directly investing in this backfield is reckless behavior at this point in the season.

Bhayshul Tuten | JAX (at IND)

Bhayshul Tuten has scored six times on his 88 touches this season, and given the success of Travis Etienne, I think you have to label this season a success for the fourth-round rookie out of Virginia Tech.

That said, this finger injury is going to require some time, and with the playoffs likely on the horizon, Jacksonville is operating with caution. Tuten sat out last week, and he may have played his last regular-season snap of 2025.

Even if he recovers faster than expected, we were looking at 5-8 touches most weeks at full strength. Etienne is a UFA this offseason, and that could open the door for a fantasy viable role in Year 2: lose his name for the final two weeks of this season, but don’t lose track of the profile as you start the prep process for 2026.

Bijan Robinson | ATL (vs LAR)

Is this the quietest 2,000-yard season in the history of the NFL?

Atlanta’s Third Drive at Arizona

• Bijan Robinson, 41-yard catch
• Bijan Robinson, 11-yard rush
• Bijan Robinson, 13-yard TD reception

This offense has been far from explosive during his career, but he’s as consistent as they come. He’s cleared 16 PPR points in 63.3% of his career games: what if this offense showcased the type of balance that can put their generational talent in favorable spots on occasion?

There are a handful of running backs that put you ahead of your competition consistently and deserve a first-round grade. Robinson is certainly that, and if he’s not the first overall pick in your draft this summer, it won’t be long until his name gets slapped on the board.

Blake Corum | LAR (at ATL)

Blake Corum is pretty clearly a part of this offense, and that’s not going anywhere. The second-year running back handled the second drive on Thursday night and finished with a season-high 14 carries in what was the most important game to date this season for the Rams.

The lack of usage in the passing game (seven catches this season) and unsustainable scoring rate (five touchdowns on 44 carries over his past four games, one on the first 140 of his career) are obvious red flags. Still, the limitations of Kyren Williams (we are more than a month removed from his last 20-yard touch) are real, and that puts Corum on the flex radar, even if you think the TD run comes to an end.

The percentage of touches in which he is scoring isn’t here to stay, but the usage patterns suggest a level of comfort with him in those spots. Even as the secondary RB, he has multiple red zone touches in four straight and in six of his past seven games. He’s picked up yardage on 85.7% of his rush attempts this season, a rate that I’m OK with betting on in a floor sort of way, understanding that there is some scoring equity thanks to the potency of this offense in a critical spot.

Brashard Smith | KC (vs DEN)

I’ll admit it: I got a little too cute last week in labeling Brashard Smith as a must-add player.

I stand by the idea (dead team, talented rookie), but he played just eight snaps in the loss to the Titans, and it was Isiah Pacheco flashing in the short passing game, the role I thought Smith could step into (seven targets on 20 routes).

It still wouldn’t surprise me if he got more run over these final two weeks, but asking him to turn a handful of opportunities into meaningful fantasy numbers, given the state of this offense, would be a stretch.

We will see what Kansas City does with their backfield this summer: Smith could be an interesting handcuff if things break the right way.

Breece Hall | NYJ (vs NE)

Who do you think wins this game?

Breece Hall has cleared 15 touches in four straight games against the Patriots, but the Jets are 2-3 in games with him against the Pats, and he’s scored under 10 PPR points in all of the losses.

We are looking at one of the more explosive backs in the sport, but even he can’t find anywhere to turn in this one-dimensional offense that is struggling to back opponents off of the line of scrimmage.

Hall’s last carry, gaining more than 13 yards, came back in Week 10, and with the Patriots ranking fourth best post-contact against RBs this season, I can’t say that I see that trend changing.

We haven’t seen Hall reach 10 PPR points in a game this month, and he has scored 39.1% below expectations over those games. I’ll listen to the idea of buying in on Hall at a discount next season should the opportunity present itself. Still, I won’t be reaching unless this offense looks drastically different.

Bucky Irving | TB (at MIA)

I thought Bucky Irving looked reasonably good on Sunday, but a spike play from Rachaad White and a short TD for Sean Tucker really cut the legs out from the RB1’s fantasy profile.

In the loss, Irving gained yardage on 18 of his 19 carries, touched the ball three times in the red zone, and was on the field for 60.7% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps.

That’s an encouraging overall stat sheet, and it’s not hard to imagine him exploding sooner than later. We know Irving to be a versatile threat, but he didn’t see a target last week. He also didn’t have a single gain of more than 12 yards (tackled at the one-yard line on that play), something I’d bet against repeating against a ‘Fins defense that allows 7.2 plays of 15+ yards per game, the seventh most in the league.

Chase Brown | CIN (vs ARI)

Samaje Perine was a pain in the early going for Chase Brown managers as the veteran saw all of the RB targets in the first half and added a four-yard rushing score across those first 30 minutes.

I would have spent less time stressing about Brown’s usage last week if I knew that he’d come out of the locker room looking like prime LaDainian Tomlinson.

He scored twice in 71 game seconds with a Quinn Ewers interception wedged between them, and he wasn’t done.

With three scores in the third quarter, Brown racked up the points at a rare pace and likely flipped your matchup in the blink of an eye. The immediate nature of his points was overwhelming, but nothing he did was that much outside the range of what we’ve been seeing recently.

Brown has five touchdowns in his past three games and has cleared 10 PPR points as a pass catcher alone in four straight. Over the past month, he’s scored 30.7% above expectations, a whole new version of him from what we saw earlier in the year (14% below through Week 11).

Arizona has allowed the fourth most red zone touchdowns this season, giving Brown every opportunity to give you a seven straight top-13 finish at the position.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (vs DAL)

Numbers never lie.

That’s my team name in a few spots, and I pretty much live life by that standard. They can say anything you want them to, so any “lie” that you believe them to be telling, I’ll happily spin in a different direction to make them tell my truth.

You: “16 touches for 69 yards and a touchdown. Sign me up for more of that!”

Me: “69.1% of his points came in the final 3.5 minutes of a game that was decided.”

C-Rod was viable on Saturday, but I don’t think it was in a very sustainable way. Those garbage-time numbers could have gone anywhere, and if not for a Mariota injury, they would probably have been pass plays with Jeremy McNichols on the field.

He was featured early; I won’t fight you on that. Washington ran the ball on four of their first five plays last week, and they all went to Rodriguez (gains of, in order, three, five, six, and three yards). I don’t think there’s any question about which Commanders running back is most valuable.

But I don’t think it matters.

Christian McCaffrey | SF (vs CHI)

We saw Christian McCaffrey post a +90% gain rate on the ground against the Colts on Monday night, just his third such performance in what has been a tough year on the ground.

But in those instances where he is effective in the running game, it’s over. He had a pair of easy red zone touchdowns by way of getting a linebacker in space and running a crisp route that the defender simply had zero shot at stopping.

Your 2026 Pro Bowlers: Christian McCaffrey & George Kittle Short, sweet, and well deserved. Watch the reveal and give it up for our two stars! #49ers #ProBowl #NFL pic.twitter.com/rjMcbjKWh8

— Statpro (@statpro_ai) December 24, 2025

He’s up to 16 touchdowns, 92 catches, and 1,039 rushing yards. At this point, nothing he does is all that surprising. He’s stayed on the field and in doing so, he’s one of the best fantasy options of all time.

It really is that simple.

Chuba Hubbard | CAR (vs SEA)

We saw Chuba Hubbard get some valuable usage on Sunday against the Bucs, and I thought that was interesting (5-2 red zone snap edge over Rico Dowdle).

But my interest ends there.

Dowdle out-snapped Hubbard 31-22 for the game, and things have generally trended away from him. In Week 13, he touched the ball 19 times against the Rams, but he has had a total of 16 opportunities since, and considering that none of his 125 carries this season have gained 15 yards, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze with the volume fading as the importance of the games ramps up.

D’Andre Swift | CHI (at SF)

D’Andre Swift remains my RB1 in Chicago, but this is a committee that leaves both parties without a real path to an RB1 finish in our game. Since Week 11 …

• Swift: 0.77 PPR points per touch, 54% snaps, 15 red zone touches
• Kyle Monangai: 0.76 PPR points per touch, 43.8% snaps, 16 red zone touches

My concern is that Swift was supposed to separate himself as a pass-catcher, and we just haven’t seen Ben Johnson design a ton to make that projection a reality. He’s been held under 20 receiving yards in seven straight games, and that is with the theoretical boost that came with WR injuries plaguing this team.

Swift has no more than 13 carries AND has failed to rip off a 10+ yard run in three of his past five games. The strength of this offensive line is run blocking, and that keeps him in the RB2 tier, but it’s clear that Caleb Williams’ confidence is growing at an exponential level, and that figures to be leaned into as the regular season comes to a close.

The 49ers are a bottom-of-the-barrel pressure rate team. While I imagine that establishing a power run game is a priority, I don’t think it will be THE priority with this team now looking to do damage in January.

I give Swift the slight edge over Monangai, but the gap is narrow, and the upside for both stands to dip with time (healthy receivers) rather than improve.

David Montgomery | DET (at MIN)

I don’t mean to be mean, but you’re asleep at the wheel if you’re counting on David Montgomery at this point.

The Lions have struggled to move the ball on the ground at all, and even when they do, Jahmyr Gibbs is the first and second read (59-13 snap edge over Montgomery in Week 16).

The experienced back has single-digit carries in six straight games and doesn’t have a catch in either of the recent losses. In 14 games last season, Monty had 52 red-zone touches; in 15 this year, he has 30.

Against an aggressive defense like this, I expect Dan Campbell to lean into his explosive play-makers even more: sign me up for a lot of Gibbs and Jameson Williams this weekend!

De’Von Achane | MIA (vs TB)

Turn on a Dolphins game for five minutes, and you’ll understand why I spend time gushing about De’Von Achane in this space this week.

Miami is interested in a variety of looks (all three of their running backs touched the ball on the first drive against the Bengals last week), but everything they do is centered around what their RB1 brings to the table.

He caught Quinn Ewers’ first pass last week and cashed in a pitch from 48 yards out on the second drive.

Catch the pitch, sharp cut, game-breaking speed. Cincinnati didn’t even have it defended; they created traffic in the backfield, but it didn’t matter.

It’s not fancy. It also appears unstoppable over 60 minutes. In all three of his NFL seasons, Achane has scored 11+ touchdowns from scrimmage, and we have a 526-carry sample of him picking up 5.7 yards per carry.

If you wanted to explain away some of his early career success by way of the offensive motion, fine. But he’s still doing it, and this offense hasn’t been anything but ordinary this year.

I’ve got a handful of players in my 1.01 tier, and Miami’s star is on it.

Derrick Henry | BAL (at GB)

I can’t explain to you why Derrick Henry didn’t touch the ball for the final 12:50 of Sunday Night’s loss. I wish I could.

Fortunately, he was able to get plenty of work in earlier, giving us his sixth straight game with either 100 scrimmage yards or a rushing score. The DeHember narrative is out there and strong:

Percentage Of Carries Gaining Yards

• Weeks 1-14: 81.5%
• Weeks 15-16: 93.1%

If only the Ravens were aware of this.

The Packers gave up 150 yards on 26 carries to the Bears last week, their first following the Micah Parsons injury and likely the start of a trend.

With Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love both banged up, this could be a game played in the mud, and that is right where Henry managers want to be. I’ve got Henry ranked as a top-10 running back this week as Baltimore plays for their playoff lives.

Devin Neal | NO (at TEN)

A hamstring injury in Week 15 was not only enough for Devin Neal to exit the game after scoring a touchdown, but for him to sit over the weekend against the Jets and be placed on season-ending IR last Thursday.

What the 2026 season looks like at RB behind Alvin Kamara is anyone’s guess at this point in New Orleans, but my instinct is to approach it next August the way I did this past August: full fade.

Devin Singletary | NYG (at LV)

This felt like a committee for a minute, but it’s no longer that, and that means Devin Singletary isn’t deserving of a roster spot in any format.

Tyrone Tracy outsnapped him 31-17 last week, holding the edge in routes, targets, and red zone work.

Outside of Tracy getting everything of value, it was even.

This backfield isn’t realistically as close as the 18-12 touch spread last week suggests. Tracy doesn’t jump off the screen, but I trust his sausage in this matchup, especially with New York seemingly putting Jaxson Dart in bubble wrap.

Singletary isn’t getting enough work, even in a run-centric offense, to matter.

Emanuel Wilson | GB (vs BAL)

Did you know that it’s been over a month since Emanuel Wilson has been stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on a carry?

That’s four straight games, and while his volume wasn’t anything to write home about until Josh Jacobs (knee) started being held back last week, we are still talking about a 23 carry sample size.

I don’t think he’s in a position to work into a committee role if Jacobs is ruled healthy, but what are the odds that happen this week?

I still like Jacobs, even a banged-up version of him, to lead this backfield in touches, but you wouldn’t have to twist my arm to project Wilson for 10-12.

How much value does that hold?

Realistically, not much. He has seven games this season (including four straight) without a single target earned, and if Jacobs is anywhere close to marginally healthy, I think he’s the favorite to get the red zone work. That said, double-digit touches are hard to find this time of year, and that is why Wilson, at the very least, shouldn’t be available in any competitive league.

I don’t currently have him ranked as a starter in most formats, but in a deeper league with multiple flexes, I could see how you get there. Rostering Wilson is more blocking your opponent from potentially having a RB2 should Jacobs sit: I’m not counting on it. Still, if I can take away any path to production for my opposition, you better believe I’m doing it!

Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs DEN)

Does that count?

I was high on Isiah Pacheco this preseason, and if you started him last week, you benefited with 13.5 PPR points.

I’m kidding.

Everyone knows that you were eliminated a long time ago if you took my advice on him.

Pacheco played 72.1% of the snaps and got the (only) running back red zone touch. In the loss to the Titans, yes, those five words are tough to type, but he handled 14 of 18 running back touches and was featured from the jump as this team plays out the string.

Another QB change to navigate makes this situation impossible to feel good about, but at least we have greater clarity about the hierarchy of this offense. The 31-yard catch was his longest gain of the season, and we know how this goes …

Pacheco is going to show enough over the final few weeks to suck me back in. I can feel it.

He’s outside of my top 30 this week: I’m not having my championship decided by this decimated offense.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS (vs DAL)

Jacory Corskey-Merritt ran for 96 yards and a touchdown in New York against the Giants in Week 15, but with Chris Rodriguez back from the hamstring injury, the rookie was more of an afterthought.

He wasn’t on the field for either of Washington’s first two drives, and while he got the short touchdown run, it’s worth noting that Rodriguez got the first crack at it.

In the loss to Philly, JCM ranked third in this backfield in snap share (21.6%). His five red zone touches were nice to see and give you a path to getting a cheap TD (like last week) if you’re in a tough spot, but that’s all Croskey-Merritt is at this point.

If the Commanders were interested in extending the rookie in a meaningful way, we would have seen it last week with them trying to prevent the Eagles from celebrating an NFC East title. I think you’re lucky if you get 10 touches, and without a versatile skill set, you’re chasing a TD in an offense that I have little faith in.

Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (at MIN)

Jahmyr Gibbs has gained 83 yards on 32 carries in December.

Trent Richardson thinks that’s bad.

Gibbs has been a top-10 PPR fantasy running back in two of those three weeks.

There are no pictures in the fantasy box score, so I don’t really care how the points are accumulated, and that’s more true now than ever with versatility at an all-time high across the league.

In those three games, he’s caught 21 passes for 163 yards and a touchdown. Essentially, he’s been Christian McCaffrey.

Gibbs has cleared 30 PPR points in each of Detroit’s last two wins over Minnesota (28 touches for 170 yards and four touchdowns in the game for the division in Week 18 last season), and with them favored this week, are you going to dismiss that level of upside?

I’m not.

Gibbs will be picked in the first half of the first round this summer and will be the first name slapped on the board in plenty of instances.

James Cook | BUF (vs PHI)

This dude is special, and I think just how special gets minimized sometimes because of the superhero that takes snaps for this team.

He was shifty with the joystick between the hashes on his way to a 44-yard score on Buffalo’s first drive last week in Cleveland. He showed great awareness to get into the end zone for his second score of the week and 14th of the season in the second quarter.

It was easy to cry “regression” after he scored 18 times, averaged 4.9 yards per carry, and caught 84.2% of his targets a year ago.

That idea was right: it’s hard to do that once, never mind twice. But there are exceptions to every rule, and Cook has a chance to reach all of those numbers again this season.

The scary part is simple: what if Josh Allen’s rushing regresses by even 10%?

Javonte Williams | DAL (at WAS)

Game script did Javonte Williams no favors last week. The Cowboys weren’t too competitive with the Chargers, and that resulted in a season-low nine carries for their lead back.

The fact that he has caught multiple passes in four of his past five games is a nice boost, but I wouldn’t sweat the score being an issue for Williams’ usage in this game.

He is battling a bit of a neck situation, and this offensive line isn’t at full strength, but Williams did gash these Commanders for 116 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries two months ago.

At the very least, I expect plenty of usage in this game, and with him averaging 0.86 points per touch (55 red zone touches is certainly helpful), that gives him a strong RB2 profile to cap a season where you’ve profited in a major way from taking a chance on him.

Jaylen Warren | PIT (at CLE)

Marino Rivera was great, but the job Jaylen Warren did in closing out the Lions last week was elite (even if the kicking game/defense nearly blew it).

“Back-breaking 45-yard TD run in the fourth” was a note I had jotted down, and that was before his second “back-breaking 45-yard TD run in the fourth”.

Not bad for an RB that didn’t have more than 35 rushing yards in any of his three games prior.

Those are his two longest gains of the season and put him in rarified air when it comes to stringing explosive plays like that together. That said, it was still a split backfield with Kenneth Gainwell, where Warren surrendered some passing game work.

This is a profile you can start, as long as you’re not expecting a repeat of last week. He’s got five games of 15+ PPR points this season, a total he has a chance to build on against the Browns defense that is fading.

Jaylen Wright | MIA (vs TB)

Jaylen Wright got creative work on the first drive by way of an end-around, and it’s clear that this coaching staff, as currently constructed, is interested in how his speed can impact the game.

We will see if that remains the case in 2026, but his 53 yards and a touchdown on 10 touches against the Bengals was another reminder of what he can do when given the opportunity.

In my mind, Ollie Gordon projects as the RB to play next to De’Von Achane, while Wright holds the more valuable role as a direct handcuff who would assume top-20 status should the starter miss time.

Obviously, the state of this coaching staff could result in some role shuffling, but because I expect to be about as high as anyone on Achane in 2026, you can rest assured that I’ll be investing in Wright with consistency should my impression of his role remain intact through this offseason.

Jeremy McNichols | WAS (vs DAL)

If we were in Week 4, maybe I’d try to sell you on the idea of stashing Jeremy McNichols, but we aren’t, so I’m not going to.

It was interesting to see him on the field for a red zone play on Washington’s first red zone drive of last week. Yes, it was on third down, and that’s more his role than anything, but in a backfield without a proven threat and no versatility among those competing with him for touches, there would be growth potential if this role were presented in September.

But we are in December now, and McNichols has just 63 touches this season, with his only score coming back in Week 3. There’s no need to roster a player like this at this point.

Jonathan Taylor | IND (vs JAX)

Game script worked away from Jonathan Taylor with the 49ers cooking for the entire game, and an early special teams turnover put the Colts behind the eight ball.

These are the games that separate the good from the great at the position.

It would have been easy for JT to fail, but instead, due to his versatile role on this team, he finishes the 21-point loss with 79 yards and a touchdown.

He probably didn’t give you the boost you were hoping for, but he salvaged his week, and that’s sometimes just as important. Taylor now has 10 games with at least three receptions and has multiple red zone touches in 11 straight.

The limitations of this offense cap his ceiling, but the baseline remains a top-10 option at the position. His elite days go to your championship: he can steady the ship this week, but you’ll likely need to get the game-breaking performance elsewhere.

Jordan Mason | MIN (vs DET)

Both Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason got work on the first drive, but Mason suffered an ankle injury that would end his day before it really had a chance to get started.

The idea of drafting Mason this summer was sound, given his efficiency and the age curve for Jones, but it has yet to pay dividends (under 12 carries in eight straight). I maintain my thought that the 26-year-old can hold a stable fantasy asset in this league if the opportunity presents itself, but we haven’t been there when Jones has been active. Certainly, we can’t count on this upcoming week in a low-stakes game with the potential for this injury to linger.

Josh Jacobs | GB (vs BAL)

And this, friends, is why the NFL is a game for gladiators.

Josh Jacobs was on crutches during the workweek and signed up to have 11 grown athletes chase him around the field on Saturday. I slept funny on Monday and was wondering aloud if I’d have to pull out of playing HORSE with my nephew on New Year’s Eve.

There are levels to this, and NFL players are unique in comprehension. We’ve become so immune to superhuman recoveries that defy logic that when something like the Jacobs situation happens, we are taken aback.

• Quarter 1: 52.9% snap share
• Quarter 2: 31.8% snap share
• Quarter 3: 60% snap share
• Quarter 4 and Overtime: 12.5% snap share

When an extended rest was possible, Jacobs was trying to give it a go, but his health simply wasn’t sustainable, and that shouldn’t be viewed as a surprise.

Again, he opened the week on crutches.

So yeah, you can complain about his 14 touches netting just 4.8 PPR points for you, but if you think about the facts we had entering the game, you were the one who elected to click him in with the risk known.

It doesn’t sound as if he did any additional damage to his bulky knee, and with Green Bay battling for that final playoff spot, I think it’s more likely than not that we see him suit up again on Saturday night.

Emanuel Wilson is a must roster at this point because we simply don’t know. Could the Pack rest Jacobs this weekend with the hope that he’s close to healthy for Week 18 and (hopefully) a playoff game or two?

At the end of the day, I think you’re playing Jacobs if we think he can handle 15+ touches. This run game worked last week (Wilson ran for 82 yards on 14 carries, and that was without his average being inflated by a single attempt), and with potential chaos/limitations at the QB position, I’d expect this offense to function through the handoff.

I currently have Jacobs in and handling 15-17 touches. That’s obviously not the 20+ that we were getting through the first two months, but he is averaging a career-high 0.90 PPR points per touch this season, and that would be enough to get us home, even at lesser usage.

Kareem Hunt | KC (vs DEN)

We were begging for clarity in this backfield, and all it took was for a dynastic team to be eliminated from playoff contention and to lose their top two QBs to ACL tears.

Kareem Hunt was on the field for just 25.6% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps last week in Tennessee (his second-lowest rate of the season), and the only time I noticed him was on a second-quarter carry where he was swallowed up about three yards into his own endzone for a safety.

When all was said and done, Hunt wasn’t a change of pace option to Isiaha Pacheco and, for just the third time this year, finished a contest without a red zone touch.

I’m fairly confident that there isn’t value to chase in this backfield, but I’m very confident that if you’re looking to do so, Hunt isn’t the answer.

Keaton Mitchell | BAL (at GB)

I will give it to the Ravens: when they put Keaton Mitchell on the field, they look to get him work.

There’s a downside to that.

I’m a researcher in my basement from 100’s of miles away, and I’ve cracked the code (19 snaps and nine touches): I’m going to go ahead and say that a desperate Packers team is probably pretty aware of this pattern.

Mitchell has shot-out-of-a-cannon athletic abilities (16 carries for 161 yards and a score in the three games before his nine-carry 13-yard dud against the Patriots), but this is an offense searching for answers, and that isn’t the top of an environment that favors a complementary back like this.

In the loss to New England, all three of Baltimore’s primary RBs had exactly four snaps. We know what Derrick Henry brings to the table, but nothing appears to be written in stone, and that takes out all of my interest in flexing a player like Mitchell.

Long-term, are we looking at a ramped-up version of Kenneth Gainwell? A player who touches the ball 100-125 times a season and is schemed up specific looks weekly?

I think that’s about right, and that could get him into the flex conversation as early as next season.

But not this week.

Kenneth Gainwell | PIT (at CLE)

Kenneth Gainwell had one of the two crazy touchdowns last week (also: Michael Wilson), and that rubber-stamped a solid day at the office.

Even without the lucky 45-yard TD reception, he had four catches and averaged 5.6 yards per carry against a struggling Lions defense while playing 54.3% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps.

MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer

He held a 25-17 edge over Jaylen Warren in routes in the win, something that I think has significant value to end this regular season with DK Metcalf suspended for the next two games.

With exactly seven targets in three straight games and a 25+ yard touch in four of his past six contests, Gainwell is a viable flex who ranks one spot ahead of Warren for me this weekend.

Kenneth Walker III | SEA (at CAR)

On the heels of three straight finishes outside of the top-30 at the position, Kenneth Walker hits his first 40+ yard play of the season against a stingy divisional rival on a short week.

He then later scores from even further out.

Because, of course.

I’d love to hop on here and tell you to lock in Walker. Tell you that all of our dreams are set to come true at the perfect time and that your loyalty will pave the way for a fantasy championship.

It could, but that was always the case. Walker is still splitting reps with Zach Charbonnet and is used less the closer Seattle gets to the end zone. This season, his average expected PPR point total is a tick over 10.0, and on Thursday, it was 9.6; he just happened to hit a few home runs.

I think he’s more valuable than Charbonnet, but the gap isn’t huge, and a split situation can yield a wide range of outcomes for an all-or-nothing runner like this. The Panthers’ run defense has collapsed over the second half of the season, and this strong showing gives me a little hope that we see his role extended, but we’ve seen that not really be the case in the past.

Walker is a top-20 RB for me this week: I’d just caution against displaying too much confidence. The Niners are a bottom-5 defense in terms of yards allowed per carry before contact to running backs, and while I think Swift is more likely to cash in on that weakness, there’s no reason that Monangai can’t leverage it and make a red zone opportunity count in a big way.

Kimani Vidal | LAC (vs HOU)

There is a chance Kimani Vidal is inactive this week due to a neck injury he suffered over the weekend. Even if that’s not the case, it stands to reason that his usage is capped, and against an elite defense like Houston, that’s not going to work.

Vidal did get Los Angeles’ first carry against the Texans, but this is pretty clearly Omarion Hampton’s backfield. Hassan Haskins would pick up work if Vidal sits, though that role hasn’t been relied upon much (31 carries for 88 yards in December for Vidal).

Kyle Monangai | CHI (at SF)

The Bears started D’Andre Swift last week against the Packers, and that’s a title that gets overblown in certain spots.

Kyle Monangai took the second carry of the game and picked up nine yards with it: this is a 1a and 1b situation, no matter the labels we put on them.

The lowlight of the Week 16 win for the Bears was that red zone fourth down play in the first quarter, where they had a wildcat formation with a TE under center to fake the Tush Push.

The snap was designed to go between the legs of the tight end into the hands of Monangai in an effort to create confusion at the point of attack and let him get downhill in space.

Conceptually, not awful. Execution, putrid.

The snap came in as if Monangai was 7’8”, not 5’8”, and, live, I thought the Bears may have blown their best chance to win.

That obviously didn’t end up being the case, and, looking back at it, if I roster Monangai, I’m thrilled that Ben Johnson was getting creative around getting my guy the ball in a valuable spot.

When all was said and done, the rookie matched a season high with three catches, one of which picked up 34 yards, good for his second-longest gain of the year. There’s a lot to like in this profile, and if he can wrestle away targets from Swift, you might see me ranking him as the RB1 in this backfield for playoff contests.

I still do think Swift is the play if you’re forced to pick between the two, but because of the presence of the other, but are in that low-end RB2, viable flex tier.

Kyren Williams | LAR (at ATL)

Los Angeles couldn’t move the ball at all on the ground against Seattle on Thursday night (39 attempts for 124 yards with zero 10-yard gains), so it was good to see Kyren Williams (eight first-quarter carries) earn six targets, one more than he had earned in his four games prior combined.

The Blake Corum role has been carved out, and that’s not going away. The 26 touches last week were encouraging, but that was more a product of how this offense functioned than it was a handing of the bellcow role back to Williams. Before that game, he had gone six straight games since he had last cleared 15 attempts on the ground, and, unfortunately, I think that’s probably what we are looking at here.

On the plus side, this is a high-impact game coming off extended rest against a below-average defense. When not playing the Seahawks this season, Williams is picking up 5+ yards on 46.7% of his carries, a rate that you’re signing up for in a major way (last season: 36.4%).

The development of a secondary RBm hurts the floor/ceiling math, but last week was the eighth time this season in which LA’s RB1 had 4+ red zone touches, and that level of scoring equity has to be in your lineup weekly. He’s not a top-10 back, and there’s no clear path to him carrying your team, but it’s equally unlikely that he flops in a major way in this spot.

You’re starting Williams this week: the 2026 conversation will be the interesting one.

Michael Carter | ARI (at CIN)

I understand that the Bengals matchup is enticing and Michael Carter would be the play from this backfield, but I’m not going to Arizona for RB production if I can help it.

We know that James Conner, Trey Benson, and Bam Knight are all done for the year, and yet, we still have three running backs involved.

On Sunday against the Falcons, Carter led the trio with a 53.6% snap share, but he only accounted for half of the running back touches and Corey Kiner got both of the RB looks inside the 20-yard line.

Carter has been nothing special this season (78.2% gain rate and 5.1% of carries have gained 10+ yards), and the quality of opportunities isn’t high enough to roll the dice (one red zone touch in his past four games).

Nick Chubb | HOU (at LAC)

Woody Marks (ankle) was out last week, leaving the door open for Nick Chubb, deemed healthy from the rib injury, to get meaningful work.

It didn’t happen, and that should tell you all you need to know about how this team views what the veteran has left in the tank.

He carried six times for 33 yards (30 coming on one play) against the Raiders, but it was Jawhar Jordan, a 2024 sixth-rounder, who led the backfield in snaps, routes, targets, and touches. There wasn’t a red zone running back touch to be had last week, and that eliminated any hope of an RB from this backfield backing into a valuable stat line.

Marks was questionable for most of last week, but regardless if he’s back or not, Chubb isn’t on my radar as a viable option in Week 17.

Omarion Hampton | LAC (vs HOU)

Omarion Hampton had maybe his best game as a pro on the ground (56.3% of his carries gained at least five yards, topping his previous top rate of 50% from Week 4) and looks the part of a true star in this league.

This is obviously a tough matchup, but we did just see a rookie dismantle them (31.8 PPR points for Ashton Jeanty on Sunday), and Kimani Vidal’s status is up in the air. I’ve got the rookie ranked as a top 20 RB this week (31% snap share when he returned in Week 14, 37.1% in Week 15, and 53.2% last week) and if this offense develops over the next eight months as we’d expect (10 red zone touches over his past three games), I’m optimistic that he hits RB1 status when I release my 2026 rankings.

Quinshon Judkins | CLE (vs PIT)

This is the worst part of this game we love.

Quinshon Judkins has run hard since making his debut despite having limited support on the blocking front for the majority of it.

We have even seen some spikes in his versatility of late, including on Sunday, where he was the first player in the Browns/Bills game to reach four receptions.

But every player in this league is one play away from needing a long recovery, and the rookie back is the latest example of just that.

Late in the first half, he was dragged down and, in the process, fractured his fibula while also dislocating his ankle.

Early reports suggest that he avoided ligament damage, and that’s about as good news as we could hope for. He’s still looking at being out for a minimum of four months, though it sounds like the beginning of next season won’t be impacted by this injury at all.

Raheim Sanders was the replacement on Sunday, and it was Harold Fannin who got the goal-line carry, a run out that suggests there is nothing that needs to be done on the waiver wire. Sanders might get his 12-15 touches, but given the state of this offense and the form of the Steelers defense that just shut down the Lions running game for 60 minutes, there’s no reason to prioritize backfield touches in Cleveland to round out 2025.

Rachaad White | TB (at MIA)

It didn’t appear that the Bucs planned on using Rachaad White much on Sunday, but after three straight Bucky Irving carries, the starter needed a blow, and White capitalized with a 39-yard sprint.

He set up the Sean Tucker touchdown with a catch that got Tampa Bay down to the one-yard line, creating a tough mental situation for those relying on an Irving in a big way.

For the game, White was on the field for 39.3% of Buccaneer snaps and was the only member of the backfield to earn a target. He has a niche role (no more than seven carries in four of his past five games), and that puts him into the “involved enough to be annoying but not enough to hold standalone value” tier.

Tucker is in the same boat, and Irving managers are left wanting more.

Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (at NYJ)

Rhamondre Stevenson took advantage of the role left vacant by TreVeyon Henderson after the rookie left with a head injury last week and gave us his second-best fantasy performance of the season (10 touches for 78 yards and a touchdown).

In comeback mode, the Pats threw 44 passes against 23 rush attempts (10 of which came from Drake Maye), so there wasn’t a ton of volume, but Stevenson did well for himself with a 20+ yard rush and reception.

It’s a small sample, but it’s worth mentioning given that it is possible that he has this backfield to himself as a big favorite: over his past two games, 28.6% of his carries have gained 10+ yards, up from the eye sore of 5.9% through 13 weeks.

New England struggled to run the ball effectively in the Week 11 meeting (27 carries for 65 yards), but they did pound in a pair of scores, and given that the Jets are the seventh-worst post-contact run defense in the league, it wouldn’t surprise me if this was a bloody-their-nose type of game plan from Mike Vrabel.

If Henderson does, in fact, miss this game, you can feel good about the floor of Stevenson in such a way that he ranks inside of my top 20.

Rico Dowdle | CAR (vs SEA)

I loved to see, in a big spot against the Bucs, the Panthers come out of the gates moving Rico Dowdle around in the formation.

It didn’t lead to much, but it speaks to their confidence in his versatility, something we saw play out as the game wore on (six targets, his second-most in a game this season).

The running game might not always be pretty (under 3.3 yards per carry in three straight), but he has topped 1,000 yards on the ground in consecutive seasons. Carolina has either handed him the ball 16 times or gotten him four receptions in seven straight, and that workload makes you a low-end starter, regardless of matchup.

I just can’t get much higher than that.

The Rams rank in the top 10 in yards per carry before and after contact to running backs this season. Chuba Hubbard did see some of the high-value touches last week, and if that continues, we could easily be looking at a spot where multiple RBs reach double figures in touches, but neither is worth much in our world.

It’s Dowdle over Hubbard for me by about a dozen spots, and I’m holding out hope that he can near a point per touch in this spot.

RJ Harvey | DEN (at KC)

No running back is going to score once every 14.4 touches for his career.

That’s just a fact. If you need context around that rate, consider that Barry Sanders scored one every 31.3 touches for his career.

It’s not sustainable, and I’m not going to act like it is. But “fluky” and “not sustainable” are two different things, and I encourage you to watch RJ Harvey’s 38-yard touchdown run last week against the Jags.

There is nothing “fluky” about how hard this dude runs.

Sean Payton has given the rookie the keys to the backfield. Harvey had more touches last week, and Jaleel McLaughlin had snaps, and while the efficiency numbers are going to draw back some, I have zero hesitation about plugging him in as the Broncos chase the conference’s top seed against a divisional rival that is drawing dead.

Saquon Barkley | PHI (at BUF)

We saw a TD get (correctly) taken off the board for Saquon Barkley on Philadelphia’s first drive against the Commanders, and that’s never a fun experience, but he did get there with time, and no one is complaining with a 21-132-1 stat line.

It goes without saying that this season hasn’t been what you signed up for (he reached 1,000 rushing yards on his 257th carry this season after getting to the milestone on 175 carries last year), but over 17 PPR points in three straight games to open December is helpful if you were able to navigate a fantasy regular season that really lacked upside.

The 12-yard score last week wasn’t vintage in the sense that he broke ankles on the way to a TD from distance, but it was the type of hard-nosed run that only a handful of backs cash in on.

Tank Bigsby showed well for himself in closing out the Week 16 win and there at least needs to be thought given to the idea that this team could look to lighten Barkley’s load a bit entering the postseason (298 touches so far this season after 482, including the postseason, last year).

For me, that’s more of a Week 18 conversation. Expecting 20+ carries in this plus-matchup might be optimistic, but 15+ is reasonable, and that’s all I think he needs to return RB1 value in this spot.

I’d make sure Bigsby is rostered. He’s the clear next man up, and we are nearing a point where a player like that could break the slate: roster him not so much for your roster, but to make sure that someone else doesn’t stand to gain should we get news that his role is expanding in a major way.

Sean Tucker | TB (at MIA)

Sean Tucker steals our fantasy points and then exits, hurting our matchups while also not holding nearly enough value himself to matter.

He’s scored in three straight games and eight times this season, but even with the success, his role isn’t being extended. Heck, you could argue that it’s moving the other way with just five snaps played against the Panthers on Sunday, the biggest contest of the season to date for the Bucs.

If Rachaad White wasn’t on this team, I’d have Tucker ranked as a top 10 handcuff option. We will see what this roster looks like for 2026, but for the remainder of this season, we aren’t talking about an asset (17 touches over the past four games).

Tony Pollard | TEN (vs NO)

If I told you that one running back that doesn’t call the AFC East home ripped off three straight games with 100 rushing yards, how long would it take you to land on Tony Pollard as that single player?

An hour? A day? Would you give up after 20 wrong guesses?

In those three games, 41.7% of his carries have gained 5+ yards, and while the scoring equity is limited (five of 61 touches have come in the red zone), he’s averaged over 3.4 yards per carry after contact in all of them.

Tyjae Spears was also effective against the Chiefs last week (18 touches for 105 yards), and the snaps were pretty tight (38-33 in Pollard’s favor). The team has made it reasonably clear that they prefer Pollard in competitive spots and Spears when they are forced into a passing script.

New Orleans has been playing better, but unless you think they really get rolling, it’s hard to imagine them dictating Tennessee’s playcalling in a major way. I don’t think Pollard becomes the first RB with four straight 100-yard games, but I do think he can do enough to hit starting lineups in all formats.

Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (at IND)

Travis Etienne has scored six times in December as he and the Jaguars are hitting their stride at the perfect time.

He’s been productive of late, but it’s really more thanks to Trevor Lawrence than anything.

Over the past month, he has had 60 carries for 184 yards. That’s barely three yards per pop, and if you remove two outlier runs, it’s 58 carries for 132 yards.

That’s ugly. The versatility it takes to do what he has done in the passing game over the past two weeks is obviously an enticing skill (seven catches on nine targets for 89 yards and four touchdowns), but it does feel like he’s living a bit of a charmed life.

The hope here is that he can get on track against a Colts defense that is on short rest after having played on Monday. That said, they are an above-average unit against the run in most metrics, and that’s enough for me not to rank him as an RB1.

We can get caught up in the minutiae of the projection if you’d like, but he’s a starter in all formats: whether you want to label him as a low-end RB1 or a strong RB2.

Even if you’re eliminated, I’d suggest forming an opinion on the former first-round pick as he’s a UFA this season and could land in a strong offense, given what he has shown this season.

TreVeyon Henderson | NE (at NYJ)

TreVeyon Henderson has gone from cuttable bust to OROY favorite to injured at the worst possible time. Whatever take you had on him coming out of the draft has been right at moments and wrong for others, making him an interesting discussion point for 2026.

As for this week, there are concussion protocols to navigate after the rookie was banged up in the second quarter against the Ravens. Every player seems to jump through these hoops at a different speed, so we can’t say for certain how this situation will play out when looking through a Week 17 lens, but with the Pats owning a 12-3 record and comfortable in their other running back, I’m trending toward us not getting the opportunity to make a Henderson call this weekend.

First Quarter Participation Data at Ravens

• Rhamondre Stevenson: 10 snaps, 5 routes, 2 touches
• Henderson: 6 snaps, 2 routes, 3 touches (two red zone)

Even with the flashes shown, New England has refused to fully commit, making this a dangerous click even if he were to navigate protocols quickly.

I’d make other plans and only pivot if we get concrete reporting that he is expected to be a full-go this Sunday (Stevenson settles in as a nice RB2 under the assumption that Henderson sits).

Tyjae Spears | TEN (vs NO)

It’s too little too late.

Tyjea Spears handled five of seven running back red zone touches for the Titans last week, cashed in a carry from the four-yard line, and impressed with a 34-yard reception on Tennessee’s fifth drive as the featured RB, but it’s too late.

If his usage came as a result of Tony Pollard struggling, then I’d work to talk myself into him exploiting this matchup and breathing life into this offense for the next season, but it’s not.

Pollard is one of three running backs this season with three straight 100-yard rushing games and still holds the lead in this backfield when it comes to snaps and carries.

Maybe we see this team commit to an enhanced role next season (for the record, I think he could handle 13-15 touches a game and offer weekly flex appeal), but for Week 17, I wouldn’t chase the production you missed out on last week.

Tyler Allgeier | ATL (vs LAR)

The running backs for Atlanta killed the Cardinals last week, and that is how Tyler Allgeier matched a season high with 17 touches.

That said, 8.3 PPR points are underwhelming for that usage, and it was a good reminder that while Allgeier has had his moments as a fantasy asset because of short touchdowns, there are distinct levels to the running back position.

He functions nothing like Bijan Robinson in space and while I actually think there’s a chance he’s one of the 32 best running backs in our league, he’s simply never going to get a chance in this spot (Robinson cleared 2,000 yards from scrimmage for the season on Sunday and had multiple splash plays that simply aren’t in the Allgeier profile).

There’s no use in going this direction for the fantasy finale, but it will be interesting to see what happens this summer. Allgeier’s rookie deal is up, and he could be a fix to a backfield that comes in at a reasonable cost, given that his counting numbers don’t dictate a massive contract due to his role.

Could he be a bargain for a team like Jacksonville if Travis Etienne walks? Maybe Washington?

Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (at LV)

Any concerns about this being a committee are long gone at this point.

Tyrone Tracy held a 14-snap edge over Devin Singletary last week against the Vikings and, more importantly, handled four of the five running back red zone touches.

He’s handled 18 touches in consecutive games (he had 10 carries before Jaxson Dart had a single pass attempt on Sunday) and in four of his past five, a level of usage that we have to label with the team taking a cautious approach with their rookie QB these days.

• Offensive stability
• Role
• Matchup

At this point in the season, anyone who checks two of those boxes is going to be a starter in most spots. I have my questions on the first topic, but the other two are in play, and that’s enough to land Tracy comfortably inside of my top 20 at the position.

Woody Marks | HOU (at LAC)

Woody Marks had assumed control of this backfield, and we saw that on full display with 26 carries against the Chiefs in Week 14.

He had the weird fumble recovery TD in Week 15, but an ankle injury cost him the majority of that game and resulted in a DNP over the weekend. If we get confirmation that he is a full-go this week, I’d be tempted to pencil him in for a 14-17 touch role in an offense that wants to run the ball effectively to help limit the aggression from the Chargers in attacking C.J. Stroud.

This is truly a situation to monitor. As of now, I’d tentatively plan on a secondary option, with a healthy Marks being a bonus more than an expectation.

Zach Charbonnet | SEA (at CAR)

Ah, a tale as old as time.

Kenneth Walker ripped off a chunk play on the first drive only to see Zach Charbonnet score on the next play, his ninth rushing score of the season (eight of which have come from six yards or closer).

The high scoring nature fueled Thursday night to be his third straight game with a single-digit carry total, though he did reel in a season-high four balls in the win.

I still can’t get there on this profile.

The Panthers’ run defense has been a mess after a hot start, and that means I’d rather go this direction than teammate Rashid Shaheed, but last week was the eighth time he’s failed to break a 10-yard run, and that means he’s little more than a TD vulture for a slow-moving offense. His PFSN Elusive Rating is down 5.3 percentage points this season, and that’s primarily the result of 49.7% of his carries coming against stacked boxes.

Betting on Seattle this week is fine, but Charbonnet isn’t a very appealing way of doing it.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown | PHI (at BUF)

It’s easy now to forget all of the back-and-forth with A.J. Brown and …

Well, it was really back-and-forth with no one. We saw him post on social media, but it never seemed to escalate, and now he’s reached triple digits in receiving yards four times over the past month.

He’s averaged well over two yards per route run in five straight and looks fully engaged. The Eagles are repeat NFC East champions, and while that’s good for them, it could result in some management issues in these final two weeks.

I’d still be comfortable going this direction because we know he can make a single play that pays off your trust. Brown has a catch, gaining more than 20 yards in five straight, and has 7+ TD receptions in four straight seasons.

He’s not an elite option, but he’s the clear WR1 in an offense that I trust to put points on the board.

Alec Pierce | IND (vs JAX)

I was dead wrong on Alec Pierce last week, but not all misses are created equal.

Sometimes I butcher the analysis. I’ll pat my chest when that’s the case and admit that I took a player/situation from the wrong angle.

This wasn’t that.

I was worried about his target rate in what profiles as a conservative offense under Philip Rivers, and I was right. On Monday night, he ran 31 routes and saw the ball thrown his way four times.

I’ll bet against that role every time and take the results.

It just happened to work against my fade last week as he caught all four of his looks for 86 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

It happens. Rivers threw a pair of deep touchdown passes in the first half of the loss to the 49ers, the first time he had done that in, checks notes, 2,626 days. You can bet on catching lightning in a bottle again, but the logical (and maybe stubborn) portion of my brain won’t allow me to do that.

I still have no interest in Pierce as long as Rivers is under center.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (at MIN)

Amon-Ra St. Brown almost had the assist of the year on Sunday, but that play got called back, and he was otherwise quiet in the loss to the Steelers (54 yards on nine targets).

You take the punch and move on. That’s not fun analysis, but it’s accurate. St. Brown has hit at least 14.5 expected points in each of his last nine healthy games, and he’s been a producer over expectation for as long as he’s been in the league.

St. Brown averages 10 targets and 92 receiving yards per game in his career against the Vikes, and he saw a pair of end zone targets when they met in Week 9 this season. I’ll say he lives up to those averages and solidifies his Round 1 status for redraft 2026 purposes.

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (at IND)

It just keeps getting worse.

Brian Thomas saw just 8.6% of the targets last week in Denver, the first time in his career that he was held under 12%. The Broncos obviously made an effort to keep him in check, but the version of him we saw last year would still have worked free and created enough of a window to get more chances.

There’s no question that he has regressed, and it’s come at the same time that Trevor Lawrence has put it all together. This is a potent offense with enough viable pass-catchers rostered that there is no need for force-feeding.

We are 2.5 months removed from BTJ’s last five-catch game and have just two TD receptions this season after catching 10 as a rookie.

You could argue that he is closer to WR3 than WR1 on this offense, and that has him outside of my top-30, even in a matchup I don’t fear.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL (at WAS)

Last week against the Chargers was more of a George Pickens than a CeeDee Lamb game, but six catches on seven targets for 51 yards with a pair of red zone touches isn’t a bad floor outcome.

He’s managed at least six grabs in four straight, and his season-low average depth of target (6.7 yards) has me thinking that the efficiency sticks in this plus spot.

Lamb has scored over 16 PPR points in six straight against the Commanders, and over that stretch, he’s scored six times, cleared 95 yards three times, and had a pair of double-digit catch efforts (both in 2024). I didn’t think the pregame illness slowed him last week, and as long as that continues to be the case, I’d expect Dallas’ WR1 to end the season strong.

Chimere Dike | TEN (vs NO)

There seems to be something here, and while Chimere Dike is a fringe asset at best now, I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes a big step forward in his second season, developing alongside Cam Ward.

The fourth-round pick has a TD or a rushing attempt in five straight games, proving that he is viewed as an asset once the ball gets in his hands. Week 16 featured a tremendous 30-yard catch on the sideline, sparking a drive that he eventually finished off with a one-yard score, his fourth TD of the season.

I have him outside my top 40 this week, but I tentatively penciled him in for 2026.

Chris Godwin Jr. | TB (at MIA)

Chris Godwin led the Bucs in routes run in the disappointing loss to the Panthers and he matched a season high with five receptions (six targets, 30 yards). I give him a good chance to lead this team in receptions again this week, thanks to a unique skill set in relation to the other WRs on this roster, but can Baker Mayfield get him to double-digit PPR points?

I hope so, but it’s far from a certainty. Mayfield hasn’t been a top 15 signal caller by QBi for four straight games, but this matchup could be a get-right spot in a desperation game for Tampa Bay. Miami has allowed opponents to complete a league-high 79.7% of passes thrown under 10 yards (league average: 72.6%), giving Godwin every chance to catch 5-7 balls and prove worthy of flexing, even if it’s not in the most exciting fashion.

Chris Olave | NO (at TEN)

Chris Olave doesn’t have the highlight plays that Jameson Williams or George Pickens have. He doesn’t play in an offensive environment that is anything close to Tee Higgins or Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Those things are true, and yet, he’s in that range of receiver this week for me, cracking my top 10 and profiling as the type that could break the slate.

Tyler Shough funneled five of his first 10 targets in the direction of his WR1, posted his fourth 20-point game of the season, and earned double-digit targets for the eighth time. The floor is remarkable with a rookie QB under center (over 11 points in 12 of 15 games), and there’s no WR competition for looks (Mason Tipton was WR2 on Sunday, and Olave had twice as many catches as he had targets).

He’s been a lineup lock all season, and I love looking this way in DFS against a defense that ranks 25th or worse in yards per pass, yards per completion, and pass touchdown rate through 16 weeks.

Christian Watson | GB (vs BAL)

Christian Watson led the Packers in targets on Saturday night and didn’t appear to be significantly hampered by the chest/shoulder issue that forced him out of Week 15’s loss in Denver.

What he appeared to be hampered by, in addition to a Jordan Love injury, was the increased attention.

In Week 14, he turned four targets into four catches, 89 yards, and a pair of touchdowns against the Bears, production that the defense was clearly hellbent on preventing a repeat of.

This is the concern with the Green Bay receivers as a whole, and we saw it with Romeo Doubs earlier in the season: they are all secondary options that struggle with primary coverage.

Any of them (Dontayvion Wicks had his moment on Thanksgiving, and we keep wishcasting it upon Jayden Reed) can shine in spots, but the second they succeed at such a level where defenses gear schemes their way, the bottom falls out.

So that begs the question: how will Baltimore defend?

We’ve seen them struggle with size a bit (Keon Coleman had the huge fourth quarter against them back in Week 1, while Rome Odunze, DK Metcalf, and Ja’Marr Chase (twice) have all burned them for over 18 PPR points more recently.

Saturday was a red flag (the end zone targets were never real opportunities to score as much as they were reasonable throwaways in his direction). Still, in this matchup in a big spot and without any other signs of life from this receiving core, Watson remains my top-ranked GB WR and a flex play in most formats for me this weekend.

Cooper Kupp | SEA (at CAR)

It wasn’t the volume of vintage Cooper Kupp on Thursday night against the Rams, but there were signs that he could make a play or two that swings a game in January (or February??).

The toe drag catch late in the game was the highlight that jumps to mind, but how about this offense trusting him with a shovel pass in the first quarter inside the five-yard line?

He was on the field for 92.1% of their offensive snaps last week, a new season high, and still managed just a 12.9% target share. Kupp is best viewed as a quality, not quantity, guy in this offense, and that’s just not appealing to us given the limited upside (three end-zone targets and a 15.6% deep target rate).

The man can still very much play, but this offense isn’t built for him to hold even deep league flex value with your championship on the line.

Courtland Sutton | DEN (at KC)

It took some time, but I feel good about Courtland Sutton being the WR1 on this offense (over 26% target share in three straight), and against a dead Chiefs team, that’s enough to get inside of my top 20 as this team chases the AFC’s top seed.

Week 11 snapped Sutton’s four-game scoring streak against the Chiefs. He’s never had much yardage upside in this spot despite the scoring success (two games since the pandemic with 60+ yards), but that could change against a defense that allowed Cam Ward to average 8.1 yards per pass last week.

There’s a ton of WR talent that will be on display during your Christmas festivities, and I fully expect Sutton to show well and potentially post his third straight top 15 finish.

Davante Adams | LAR (at ATL)

It wasn’t a surprise to see Davante Adams dressed in sweats on Thursday night, as we were led to believe all week that this nagging hamstring issue was going to cost him at least a game.

It was his first DNP of the season and only his fourth since leaving the Packers. Sean McVay was pretty clear when addressing the media on Friday, saying that his WR2 will “most likely not play” this week.

The concern, should his status trend up during the next few days, is obvious: his value is tied to touchdowns. He has one finish better than WR35 this season when failing to score. Given the duality of this backfield alongside the greatness of Puka Nacua, it’s difficult to see him carving out a niche outside of his red zone role that matters.

That profile is concerning over the course of a four-month season, but you’re only worried about one game at this point. For the season, the Falcons grade as an average red zone defense in terms of opponent touchdown rate, but that is inflated mainly by some strong efforts against bottom-of-the-barrel offenses.

We’ve seen the Bucs (twice), 49ers, Commanders, and Patriots all cash in at least 75% of their opportunities inside the 20 in this matchup, and I very much put the Rams in class. Adams isn’t a foolproof play this week if he were to be a surprise, but the math sides with you chasing a touchdown in this fashion, should he be cleared.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | WAS (vs DAL)

Josh Johnson’s first completion went to Deeb Samuel for 20 yards, the veteran’s longest catch in December, but it ended up being the eighth time in nine games in which he was held under 45 yards.

There’s not enough meat on this bone.

With Zach Ertz (ACL) out, there’s no real competition for looks behind Terry McLaurin that I fear, but what motivation does this team have to feature a pending UFA who likely won’t be part of the future that revolves around a QB who isn’t currently playing?

You can do better on your wire. The floor isn’t high enough to make him much more valuable than the dozen or so all-or-nothing options that you’ve looked past in free agency for a month now.

DeVonta Smith | PHI (at BUF)

There was a minute on Saturday when I, someone with exposure to DeVonta Smith in a league against my brother, lamented a missed opportunity.

Smith was the target on each of Jalen Hurts’ first two throws against the Commanders (two catches for 22 yards), but he then dropped an 18-yard touchdown pass, and the way these Eagles games go, you’re not always promised a second chance.

Thankfully, that worry didn’t last long.

Smith finished that drive with his fourth TD reception of the season (first in over a month) as part of a six-catch performance (six coaches in total over the two weeks prior). You could argue that the day could have been a bit bigger if not held on an end zone route that saw a DPI flag thrown, but that play never had a great chance to be completed in my humble opinion.

It hasn’t been a banner season, but seven games over 14 PPR points isn’t a bad worst-case scenario. I think we know what we are expecting at this point on an annual basis (reasonable health, 1,000 yards, and six-ish touchdowns), so the only thing you’ll need to consider in August is if you’re willing to commit to him weekly and swallow the risk.

It’s early, but assuming this offense projects similarly next year, I’ll be willing to buy him as a WR2 across all formats, and that is right where I have him penciled in this week.

DJ Moore | CHI (at SF)

It’s not how you start, but how you finish.

DJ Moore was held without a catch in the first half, but that was less about him and more about the Bears having the ball for a tick over 10 minutes. He appeared shaken early and came off the field. Still, he returned shortly thereafter with a 12-yard gain on a nice backward pass design, and, if you’re familiar with how the game against the Packers ended on Saturday night, the injury clearly wasn’t prohibitive.

The walk-off 46-yard touchdown got Moore his fourth 20+ PPR point performance of the season and his second in as many weeks. In those contests, both without Rome Odunze (foot) and last week without Luther Burden (ankle), his aDOT has skyrocketed (20.7 yards per target on his 12 looks), and it hasn’t cut into his catch rate at all (nine grabs).

I tend to tread lightly when those two numbers (catch rate and aDOT) trend in the same direction because that’s not what usually happens. That leads me to believe you could be in for a rude awakening if you assume Moore is a locked-in asset this weekend, should either WR return to action.

The matchup doesn’t scare me, but the run-first nature of this offense, along with the increased maturity of Caleb Williams, does.

It’s easy to be blinded by the recent fireworks, but let’s not forget that Moore failed to hit 5.0 PPR points in four of five games before this outburst. If he is clearly the WR1 in this offense, I don’t think you have a decision to make: play him and hope that the recent connection down the field sticks.

If he’s vying for targets with two tight ends, two running backs, AND two other capable receivers? Then his ranking drops from inside my top 20 to in the WR30 neighborhood, and that means he’s on the fringes of starting lineups in most situations.

DK Metcalf | PIT (at CLE)

Steeler receivers tend to save the viral moments for when they leave Pittsburgh, but DK Metcalf got into it with a fan during the game last week, and is now forced to watch his team battle for the AFC North crown.

The league suspended him for two games on Monday after a quick review of what transpired on Sunday in Detroit, and if we are being honest, this may have saved you from making a mistake.

Metcalf has only four top-20 finishes this season, struggles that have included just one TD catch since Halloween and under 60 receiving yards in nine of his past 10. He did score and turn four catches into 95 yards back in Week 6 against these Browns, so maybe he would have ranked as a WR2 this week for me, but that doesn’t matter anymore.

You’re turning to your bench, not the waiver wire. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has the Aaron Rodgers stamp of approval, and he’ll see an uptick in playing time, but in this conservative offense, it’s hard to get excited about his upside.

Drake London | ATL (vs LAR)

In Weeks 1-11, Drake London was a PPR WR3 (19.7 PPG, trailing only Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua) and, over the last three times we saw him (Weeks 9-11), he was the top performer at the position.

Following the strong 2024 showing (100-1,271-9), Atlanta’s ace was viewed as a Tier 2 receiver that fantasy managers could trust at a high level, loyalty that he very much rewarded you for in 2025 before suffering this knee injury.

A knee injury had kept him out since that strong start, but he returned last week to run 30 routes (69.9% snap share) and rack up eight targets against the Cardinals.

I understand that production wasn’t there (5.7 PPR points), but if you told me at any point over the next five seasons that I was getting 8+ targets from London, I’d blindly play him and let the dust settle.

The Rams’ defense is good, but it hasn’t been without holes lately. They’ve allowed a receiver to clear 17 points in four straight and the top scoring WR to eclipse his season average in seven of eight games since returning from the bye.

Maybe you’ve seen something I haven’t, but London seems to be as safe a bet to lead his WR room in scoring as just about anyone in the league.

Play London with confidence.

Emeka Egbuka | TB (at MIA)

You simply can’t play him right now.

• Player 1: 9.0 PPR PPG, 1.6 points per target, 2.0 yards per route
• Player 2: 8.7 PPR PPG, 1.1 yards per target, 1.5 yards per route
• Player 3: 8.3 PPR PPG, 2.4 points per target, 1.0 yards per route

Those are the stat profiles since Week 6 for, in order, Mack Hollins, Emeka Egbuka, and Greg Dortch.

Goodness.

The rookie’s lone catch last week at Carolina was an impactful 4-yard gain late, and the situation is right with Baker Mayfield averaging the second-most yards per touchdown pass in the NFL (22.0). Tyler Shough leads the way if you want to stump your friends at the bar this weekend, but the production has evaporated.

Egbuka had three WR1 finishes in the first five weeks of his career, but he’s managed just one top-30 since. This matchup doesn’t really worry me at all, and there’s obviously a lot to play for. Still, with shaky QB play and a de-prioritization in the red zone last week (one red zone route while both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans ran four), this profile is just as spotty as anybody in Green Bay, Indianapolis, or New England.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (vs NE)

News broke in November that Garrett Wilson was placed on IR with a knee injury that was expected to keep him out of multiple games at the time of the initial diagnosis.

The Jets made official what we assumed to be the case on Friday, ruling their star WR out for the remainder of the season. He’ll finish with 10 DNPs, so that needed to be noted, but he produced over league-average expectations given his target type for the first time in his career (5.7% below in 2024).

He’ll be the biggest winner on this roster should they add upside to their QB room. Wilson is phenomenal, but you can only ask him to do so much with the attention of the defense and a low-quality target. That was evident this season on the few instances in which New York was able to get inside the 20-yard line: he was targeted on just 11.1% of his red zone routes after posting rates north of 24% in each of his first three seasons.

It’s a minor miracle that Wilson owns a career 17-game average of 1,050 receiving yards. His upside relies on how the roster is filled out around him, but his raw talent makes him a fantasy starter, even if nothing changes in a meaningful way.

George Pickens | DAL (at WAS)

Isn’t it crazy how things can shift in a week?

This time last week, there were questions about whether George Pickens would be the next receiver to leave Pittsburgh and become a problem. There were concerns about effort and attitude following back-to-back duds.

Fast forward and Pickens is fresh off of his fifth game with at least 130 receiving yards and a touchdown (the only player in the 2000’s with more such games in a single season was Tyreek Hill in 2023) while a current Steeler receiver is being suspended with his team chasing a division title for getting into it with a blue haired fan during the game.

Life comes at you fast.

Getting Pickens on track was clearly a marching order entering last week, as he had an early 14-yard grab on the first drive and a 28-yarder that would extend that possession on fourth down.

This feels just like peak Bengals to me with Pickens serving as Tee Higgins. There were moments in Cincinnati where the question was asked who the top receiver was, and while I think the answer is reasonably clear in both situations, there is no denying the value of WR2.

Pickens is right on the fringe of WR1 status in the fantasy world this week (he turned six targets into 82 yards in the first meeting with Washington).

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (vs ARI)

Don’t you love it when a team leans into a strength?

The Yankees don’t try to bunt, and the Warriors don’t pound the paint. It sounds so simple, but professional sports teams have a way of overthinking things.

The Bengals have been a lot of things this season, but I wouldn’t label them as “overthinkers”.

Ja’Marr Chase saw the first two targets of last week against the Dolphins, and by the end of the first 15 minutes, he already had five receptions. The injury to Joe Burrow resulted in a slow run for their WR1 earlier this year, but he could set a career high for targets in a season this weekend and is very much back to being considered one of the three most feared at the position in the sport.

We need Burrow for Chase to be the 1.01 in August: I expect that to be the case and, for a second straight season, for him to very much be in that conversation (I’m likely to have a running back in that spot based on the scarcity of the position, but his name will be on the short list, that I can promise you).

Jakobi Meyers | JAX (at IND)

Less than two months into his career, Jakobi Meyers received a contract extension, and I think we can agree that he’s earned it.

You have to give credit to this organization for calling their shot: when Meyers was introduced, he was praised for his consistency and ability to elevate the talent around him.

Spot on.

Maybe this coaching staff has a future in the fantasy football analysis game when they transition off the sideline.

During their six-game win streak, Meyers has seen 25.1% of the targets and is getting a red zone touch per week. He’s filling a very specific role (9.8-11.6-yard aDOT in five of seven games), and they are happy to give him looks in the end zone (six targets with his feet in the paint over his last five games), something that we haven’t seen up to this point in his career.

I’ve got him ranked as a top 20 play this week on the fast track in Indy, and if you told me that you wanted to play him over established stars like AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, or Tee Higgins, I’d fully understand it.

Jalen Coker | CAR (vs SEA)

At this point, he is what he is, and that’s not enough.

Jalen Coker has 4-6 targets in six straight games, and while his current three-game run of 30+ yard receptions is nice, it’s more of a storytelling trend than a predictive one.

Bryce Young ranks 22nd of 29 qualifiers in deep ball completion rate and 24th in YPA on those throws since the beginning of last season. I think Coker is the right long-term answer as to who the WR2 in this offense is, and I hope that role means something in 2026, but for Week 17, I don’t expect it to be against a defense that could well twist this offense into a pretzel.

Jameson Williams | DET (at MIN)

Jameson Williams notched 66 yards against these Vikings back in Week 9, his first career game against them with 45+. Their aggressive style, in the past, has put a cap on how vertical JaMo can get (7.4 aDOT in five career matchups), and while that’s been a limiting factor in the past, this appears to be the best version of him that we’ve seen to date.

In four straight games, Williams has a 20+ yard reception and at least nine targets, marrying the upside with the volume that we’ve dreamt of since he was drafted.

Those are the counting numbers any boxscore watcher is aware of, but how about three straight with an end zone target after not seeing such an opportunity this season prior? Or consecutive games with five fourth-quarter targets?

This is a profile that is pointing straight up, and I don’t expect that momentum to slow this week or next season. I’ve got Williams ranked as a WR1 this week, which could put you in a great position to win before we get to the weekend.

Jauan Jennings | SF (vs CHI)

Jauan Jenngins has scored in four straight games and seven times in his past seven, but together a run of excellence that has rewarded you handsomely for what you invested.

With a target share under 18.5% in consecutive games, you could poke a hole in his target-earning abilities, but given the efficient nature of the Brock Purdy/Kyle Shanahan tandem, I’m less inclined to sweat it.

The trust factor simply cannot be overstated in this instance. Jennings has caught seven of eight third-down targets over his past three games and has scored on three of those receptions. Due to the usage that George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey absorb, there’s only so much of a ceiling to chase, but the floor has been solid all season long, and that’s enough to work him into your starting lineup with a good level of confidence.

For what it’s worth, my opinion of Jennings isn’t tied to the status of Ricky Pearsall (knee/ankle).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (at CAR)

Of all the crazy Jaxon Smith-Njigba stats out there, I think I’ve found the craziest.

Three times this season, including Thursday night, he’s been shut out in the reception department for an entire half.

Three times, a team has executed their pregame plan to perfection and just completely wiped him off the stat sheet.

He’s one of the very best in the game, and his blend of athleticism and precision makes him a fantasy first-rounder next season that has every bit the potential to lead you to a title this week. The knock on this offense as a whole is what happens when Sam Darnold gets pressured, but JSN has turned his 20 pressured receptions into a cool 364 yards and three scores.

Defenses can scheme up ways to take him for periods of time, but this offense has proven too savvy for that to last over 60 minutes, and that’s all we care about.

Jayden Reed | GB (vs BAL)

Jayden Reed was a no-show for much of Saturday night until the game was on the line.

And then they started to scheme him up looks in the short passing game to see if he could spike a play?

I have questions. If that was your catch-up plan, it was presumably one that you felt good about: why not try it earlier? Reed ran 16 routes in the first half and didn’t have a single ball thrown his way in a game that was their most important of the season.

Seems curious.

His leading the Packers in routes run (26, 64.3% snap share) was a positive step and consistent with what we’ve seen recently, but there is an empty calorie nature to his playing time (yet to clear 55 receiving yards in a game this season).

If Green Bay wants to make the playoffs, never mind have a chance to pull off an upset, they will need him to get going to bridge their physical run game with the shot-taking targets that go Christian Watson’s direction.

Maybe the team can figure that out over the next two weeks, but I’m done trying to be early: Reed isn’t a viable fantasy starter until we get proof of concept.

Jaylen Waddle | MIA (vs TB)

This is a complicated profile.

With a role change and a QB change, what are we to make of 2025 Jaylen Waddle?

He has seven games with a target share north of 26% this season, an impressive mark with a 13.2-yard aDOT. Quinn Ewers was thrown into the fire this past week, and a half of his first half targets went in Waddle’s direction: there’s a clear trust in what he brings to the table.

Against a Bucs defense that is more vulnerable against the pass than the run, I think you’re flexing Miami’s WR1, even with the risk that comes attached to this limited offense. In the long term, I’m going to let the industry dictate my exposure. I do think the talent is there, but we have a QB situation to navigate, never mind the potential for Tyreek Hill to be a factor.

We’ve seen this offense lean into a run-based scheme, and even with coaching changes, it’s hard to see this team wanting to challenge Josh Allen or Drake Maye in shootouts. My initial feeling is that my current opinion (talented but underwhelming flex) is where I’ll settle for 2026.

Jordan Addison | MIN (vs DET)

At his current pace, Jerry Jeudy would need 35 games to reach his receiving yardage total from last season (32 games to reach his catch total).

He showed flashes of Round 1 pedigree during his four seasons in Denver, but struggled to look like an alpha receiver consistently, and I fear that might just be who he is.

The 2024 season was strong, though each passing week makes it look more like an outlier than growth. Even in that productive campaign, four touchdowns on 145 targets isn’t exactly encouraging at a high level.

Of course, some of his struggles are due to QB play. Maybe a lot of them are. But if Jeudy were going to make good on his draft capital, we’d see more production by now, and with the Browns not exactly in a stable spot at the quarterback position, what are we really expecting in 2026?

Jeudy isn’t a viable option this week, that much we know. Shedeur Sanders has shown a propensity to challenge defenses vertically this season, so if you believe that he’s the long-term answer, there’s hope for Jeudy being a nice depth piece on fantasy rosters as a high-risk, high-reward option.

But I think that’s the best-case scenario, and that’s not where we stood 12 months ago.

Jordan Addison | MIN (vs DET)

We saw Jordan Addison post highly efficient numbers through his first two seasons, and that impacted what we thought was likely for him this season, even with uncertainty at the quarterback position.

The former first-round pick has produced under target expectations in six of his past seven games. While some of that is on the below-average QB play, there are instances like Sunday’s dropped touchdown (a play that would have been worthy of 9.5 points if converted) where Addison isn’t holding up his end of the bargain.

Even if we look at his career as a whole, he’s struggled in this matchup with just 11 catches on 26 targets against the Lions (162 career routes). I’m not too concerned about who is under center: we saw Justin Jefferson get going a bit against the Giants, and this isn’t an offense that I’m comfortable with when it comes to a secondary pass catcher.

I’m not interested in any capacity this week, and given the overall profile, I find it unlikely I’ll get there in 2026.

Josh Downs | IND (vs JAX)

Josh Downs scored a touchdown in the first game of the second Philip Rivers era and earned a quarter of the targets in the second game.

He’s clawed his way to double-figure PPR points in both contests, and while that’s not exactly high-end production, it’s enough to earn him the top ranking in this receiver room.

That, of course, doesn’t require you to start him. The Jags are the fifth-best per-play defense since Week 7, and if I have any similar option, I’m avoiding this offense as a whole.

Joshua Palmer | BUF (vs PHI)

It was a low-volume passing game for Buffalo on Sunday (19 pass attempts), but it was interesting that Josh Palmer led the team in routes.

He turned his one target into two yards and has yet to surpass 61 yards in a game this season. I’m not the least bit interested in Palmer himself, but his being used in this manner from a snaps perspective tells me that this offense is searching.

Generally speaking, that’s not what I love to see from a team trying to win its first championship. For fantasy purposes, this indicates that they aren’t happy with what they have, and that lowers my expectations of Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid.

I don’t know if Palmer’s playing time sticks, and that fact alone makes every pass catcher in this offense a fade for Week 17.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (vs DET)

For the first time since Week 5, Justin Jefferson produced above expectations last week against the Giants.

It wasn’t a vintage day, but there were some vintage plays (the toe tap 16-yard gain from JJ McCarthy standing out), and that’s a positive step given what we have seen for the majority of this season.

He had 57 of McCarthy’s 108 yards in the first half (37 receiving yards total in his previous three), and while I don’t want to overreact, it did only seem like a matter of time before he started efficiently finding his WR1.

Jefferson has a TD catch in four of his last five games against the Lions and has earned a minimum of eight targets in six straight (and nine of 10) against the NFC North rival. We only have limited positive data points with him and McCarthy, but if we want either trend to sustain, we need McCarthy’s hand to heal.

If that’s the case, I’ll enter the week with him ranked as a middling WR2 (in the DeVonta Smith neighborhood). If it’s the Max Brosmer show, Jefferson slips 8-10 spots and checks in closer to Marvin Harrison and Michael Pittman.

Kayshon Boutte | NE (at NYJ)

The Drake Maye express landed on Kyle Williams against the Ravens last week, but he played just 36.6% of the snaps, and if I had to throw a free agency dart on one WR from this team to exploit this matchup, it would still be Kayshon Boutte (41 routes, matching Stefon Diggs for the second most).

Of course, all that usage came with one catch. The floor is low, and I’m not entertaining this idea in any matchup between teams that project similarly.

But if you’re Davis vs Golaith, this is a receiver with five games of 13.5+ PPR points.

Keenan Allen | LAC (vs HOU)

There’s just no real fantasy upside here.

Keenan Allen is a highly reliable third-down option, and that’s great for the trajectory of this team, but for fantasy purposes, his efficient style comes with far too low a floor to make it worth our while.

He hasn’t scored in two months, and while he almost got there, he still hasn’t hit 10 fantasy points since Week 7 against the Colts. This offense has four pass catchers that can produce and zero that we feel good about.

In spots like that, I need single-target upside, and in that regard, Allen is a pretty clear WR3.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs PHI)

Khalil Shakir cleared 12 PPR points in three of four games to start the season, but he hasn’t done so in any of his past four games and is letting his fantasy managers down at the worst time possible.

The efficiency is there (11 catches on 13 targets over his past three games). Still, with just one end zone target this year and only one double-digit target performance, he certainly hasn’t offered up the high-floor, reasonable-ceiling production that we drafted him for.

I hate to say it, but at this point, why would we expect anything to change?

They never looked to expand the pass game in Cleveland over the weekend (19 passes against 29 rush attempts), and if that’s going to be the goal of this offense, Shakir would have to post a truly elite target share to rank as a PPR WR2.

It could happen, but we haven’t seen it with any level of consistency, and when facing a possession-oriented opponent like the Eagles, playing the volume game is risky at best.

Josh Allen and James Cook are elite assets at their respective positions: I’d rather not play anyone else on this roster.

Ladd McConkey | LAC (vs HOU)

The game plan seemed to be to get Ladd McConkey going last week in Dallas after consecutive air balls (total: three catches on eight targets for 32 yards and zero scores), and it was working.

The second-year wideout saw four of Justin Herbert’s first nine targets, caught three of them, and scored on a 25-yard pass in the second quarter, where the wheel route had time to develop into a thing of beauty.

It was all trending in favor.

Until it wasn’t.

He caught one pass for three yards the rest of the way, leaving us with a fifth straight sub-15-point effort after he went for 15+ in four of five prior.

I wish I could tell you with confidence what to expect moving forward. On the surface, I’m encouraged by the three end zone targets (two more than he had in his previous six games combined), but this is a top-5 defense in yards allowed, yards per play, and third down conversion rate.

The saving grace here is two-fold. I’m not sure their traditional run game works well, and I’m not any more sold on any of his pass-catching teammates. McConkey remains my highest-ranked Charger WR by a comfortable amount, but that’s only enough to have him on the top 30 bubble next to names like Chris Godwin and Stefon Diggs.

Luther Burden III | CHI (at SF)

After a week of missed practices, Luther Burden was inactive on a short week against the Packers.

We were so close!

The rookie posted a 70.6% snap share in the Week 14 loss to Green Bay, easily his high-water mark for the season and a sign that this coaching staff was elevating him thanks to his elite 2.49 yards per route run this season.

But after a DNP last week and Rome Odunze’s status TBD, it’s pretty tough to consider going this direction in a fantasy Super Bowl setting. This season, Burden has produced 14.7% over expectations despite not seeing an end zone target and never reaching 65 air yards.

RELATED: Free Fantasy Waiver Wire Tool

There is a lot to like with the 13 data points that we have Burden this season. I mean A LOT. I’m happy to drive the hype train for next season, but even if he can work through this ankle injury in time for this contest, you’re taking on a lot of risk for a player who, despite the strong metrics, has reached 15 PPR points just once.

Marquise Brown | KC (vs DEN)

We thought it might be the case, and last week in Tennessee proved it: we are done with the 2025 Chiefs.

Personally, I think it’s premature to say this dynastic run is over, but I have no reservations about saying we are onto 2026 with this franchise. Against one of the worst teams in the league, their 24 passes netted 82 yards with no real touchdown equity.

Marquise Brown led the pass catchers in receptions with three, but is that saying anything of consequence with Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton sidelined? This offense has been a foundational piece of fantasy championships at various points over the past decade, but don’t get sucked in. There’s no value in streaming any of the available pieces of this unit.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (at CIN)

This Arizona passing game just functions differently when Marvin Harrison is active, and that would usually be said with a positive inflection, but that’s not the case.

They struggled to get to 19 points, at home, against the Falcons last week, and that was with seven coming on a once-in-a-lifetime sort of touchdown to Michael Wilson.

Arizona hasn’t cleared 22 points in three straight games with their supposed WR1 on the field, and he was largely a no-show on Sunday: 20 routes, one catch, 14 yards.

More worrisome than the raw production was the 50% snap share. Elijah Higgins made the most of his opportunity (seven catches for 91 yards), but Wilson didn’t earn volume, and Trey McBride failed to meet his lofty expectations. In theory, the stage was set for Harrison, but instead, his role was quiet (under 10 expected PPR points in the majority of his games this season), and the production was even worse.

Could this game be the most impactful on the slate when it comes to how people view a certain player for 2026?

If Harrison exploits the Bengals, I can see the conversation shifting back toward his pedigree and potential. But if he faceplants in a perfect spot, we could be looking at a top-20 ADP receiver from August being outside the top 30 in 2026.

Matthew Golden | GB (vs BAL)

Matthew Golden was shut out against the Bears on Saturday, the second time the Bears held the speedy rookie without a grab this month.

Just three times this year has he caught more than three passes in a game, in what has amounted to a lost season with no clear direction for growth (does his role matter if Christian Watson can stay on the field)?

The Packers gave him a red zone carry on their first drive last week, but if he’s just a high-profile gadget player, his fantasy outlook for next season is limited at best.

He’s firmly off your radar for the remainder of this season, and without a roster change, I can’t imagine going this direction with any level of confidence this summer.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (vs JAX)

This isn’t working.

Michael Pittman is averaging under a yard per route in the two Philip Rivers starts, and with his slot rate dipping in December, there’s just not much that is appealing about this profile.

The Colts weren’t shy about calling Pittman’s number in this matchup three weeks ago (nine catches on 12 targets for 79 yards), but the math has changed since, and I’d hate to rely on this passing game in any capacity with my league title on the line.

He’s currently sitting just outside of my top 35, behind names like Troy Franklin and Deebo Samuel.

Michael Wilson | ARI (at CIN)

Sometimes it’s just your time.

Michael Wilson saw only three targets against the Falcons last week with Marvin Harrison back, a lack of usage that, more often than not, results in a crippling dud.

And it should have.

But because Wilson can do no wrong these days, he scored a 32-yard touchdown that pinballed all over the place and somehow magically landed in his hands.

Sustainable? No. Effective enough to help you advance? Very possible.

He’s now scored four times in his past three games and has reached double-digit PPR points in five of six. The floor is concerned with viable target competition, but the matchup and game environment project as more helpful to him than Harrison’s availability is harmful.

Wilson remains inside my top 24 at the position and ahead of Harrison for this cushy spot.

Mike Evans | TB (at MIA)

The Dolphins haven’t held a WR1 under his season average since limiting Zay Flowers back in Week 9, and Mike Evans appears to be near full strength with 21 targets earned on 52 routes over his past two games.

He turned nine looks into just 31 yards last weekend in Carolina, but I think you take the volume and move on. The touchdown came on a one-yard fade, and he’s of the Davante Adams school of WR vultures, and I’m not sold Miami can slow him (31 red zone TDs allowed, ninth most).

Nico Collins | HOU (at LAC)

One day, we will find a way to reward receivers for penalties drawn.

I’m not sure the best way to do that (it can’t be one-to-one for yards because there’s no guarantee that the pass is completed sans penalty and there’s also no guarantee that if it is, that the play stops there and doesn’t result in even greater production). Still, I’ll work on it this offseason and create a formula.

Using that futuristic scoring structure, Nico Collins would have been a star against the Raiders. In our current structure, however, his 9.9 PPR points weren’t exactly what you were looking for in a great matchup for a team with plenty of motivation.

Collins hasn’t cleared five catches in over a month, and I think that has to change if Houston truly wants to make noise in January. Could that be the case this week against a Chargers defense that was gashed by George Pickens in Week 15?

I think so.

My wife’s family has plans for Saturday at 5 p.m. EST. I told them that Collins needs my help producing for a few teams. I’m going to get in trouble when they see through that, but if Collins can get us 20 PPR points, it’ll have been worth it!

Parker Washington | JAX (at IND)

Is Parker Washington just #good at the game?

Sunday was the fourth time since the beginning of November that he reached 17 PPR points, a nice accomplishment when you consider the talent around him with Travis Etienne running well and three pass catchers next to him drawing attention from Trevor Lawrence.

His touchdown last week came at the end of the first quarter with Ja’Quan McMillan draped all over him. The acrobatic catch was impressive, but I’m more encouraged by Lawrence looking his way on a vertical shot, noticing that the defender was in position but not in a way that would let him see the ball, and trusting his WR3 to make a play.

There was also a DPI that he forced in the end and a 63-yard catch-and-run where his quick cut/YAC skills were on full display.

I’d be surprised if a 28.6% target share were available again this week, and that obviously introduces risk. He benefited from Denver making a point of shifting resources to Brian Thomas (three targets) and Jakobi Meyers (45 yards on his eight looks): the Colts don’t have the personnel to approach this Jags offense similarly.

I’m OK with you wanting to plug in Washington over players like Xavier Worthy, Quentin Jonson, and Rashid Shaheed, but I’d stop short of giving him the nod over a Troy Franklin type.

Pat Bryant | DEN (at KC)

Pat Bryant was unable to suit up in Week 15 due to a hamstring injury, but he showed no signs of limitations against the Jags last weekend.

• 8 targets
• 5 catches
• 42 yards
• 31 routes

Ideally, we get more per catch, but in terms of opportunity earnings, that’s solid.

That all happened before he took a scary shot to his head, one that landed him in the hospital following the game.

All reports suggest that concussion protocol is underway and that he was fortunate to avoid a more serious injury given the nature of the hit. Denver has punched their ticket to the postseason, and while the race for the one-seed is important, I’m counting on them taking a cautious approach for this week at the very least with the third-round rookie.

Troy Franklin gets a boost, and Evan Engram’s loyal fans get a breath of life under this assumption. Bryant is an interesting second-year bump candidate for next season, maybe in the same vein as what we saw George Pickens do in his second season (1,140 yards and five scores).

Puka Nacua | LAR (at ATL)

Are we allowed to speculate?

Matthew Stafford missed him on what should have been a 32-yard score against the Seahawks, a game that ended up being historic anyway, but a 10.2-point play that greedy fantasy managers are programmed to want.

Puka Nacua hauled in a no-look dime from the one-yard line and capped his evening with a 41-yard catch-and-run score in overtime on his way to the fourth-best (PPR) fantasy playoff game since the NFL extended to 17-game seasons.

He’s not the best at any one skill, but he’s a Tier 1 producer in everything (routes, timing, etc.), and that gives him every right to be considered the best in the sport.

Puka Nacua reception percentage per target this season is at a staggering 78.6%

Comparatively,
Jaxson Smith-Njigba 72.7%
George Pickens 68.2%
Ja’Mar Chase (2024) 72.6%
Cooper Kupp (2021) 75.9%
Tyreek Hill (2022) 70.0%

Puka’s Contested Catch rating:
100 overall pic.twitter.com/HBFQJ1TiKX

— RAMS ON FILM (@RamsOnFilm) December 24, 2025

Atlanta’s defense has given up 20+ PPR points to all sorts of receivers this season. Emeka Egbuka got their in the first game of his career, a past-his-prime Deebo Samuel did it, DeMario Douglas hung 20.0 on them in Week 9, Adonai Mitchell went off for 24.2 in Week 13, and, just three weeks ago, Jaxon Smith-Njigba got them for 28.1.

They’ve looked OK for spurts, but it takes much more than that to make me worried in the slightest when it comes to a healthy Nacua on an extended week. He’s the reason you’re in position to win your league, and his putting together an all-time semis/finals run is very much within the range of outcomes!

Quentin Johnston | LAC (vs HOU)

Depending on how you play fantasy football, players like Quentin Johnston are either what makes it great or mind-numbingly frustrating.

Through September, he was pacing for a season with 1,432 receiving yards and 17 scores.

He missed Week 15 with the groin injury, but in Weeks 5-14, his full-season pace was for 417 yards and 6.5 touchdowns.

We’ve been out on him for a while, and that was the stance I made in Week 16: why would we count on a struggling receiver with a prohibitive injury to advance us through our semifinals?

Justin Herbert found him (born in Texas) for a 23-yard touchdown on the first drive against the Cowboys, a one-handed grab on a perfectly thrown pass to the sideline. We got a 50-yard catch on the first drive of the second half, too, another example of Herbert putting his receiver in a position to high-point the ball.

If you’re going this way, you’re an underdog that can take on risk. Johnston has three games this season with over 20 fantasy points (Weeks 1-4-16) and three games with under three points (Weeks 8-11-14).

The upside is there, I won’t fight you on that, but the Texans haven’t allowed a 20-point receiver game since Jaxon Smith-Njigba got them for 26.3 points in Week 7. In fact, two of the past three opponents haven’t gotten a receiver to double digits.

I’m out on Johnston this week: he’s my WR41.

Rashee Rice | KC (vs DEN)

It’s impossible to know if Rashe Rice (concussion) would have been rushed through protocol faster had the Chiefs won in Week 15, thus keeping the motivation to compete there, but he sat out, and it’s possible that we don’t see Kansas City’s star again this year.

Rice has one more year on his contract, and if Patrick Mahomes’ recovery goes as planned, I’m going to have his WR1 ranked as a top-10 play at the position next season. The Gardner Minshew (at best) experience to finish this season obviously introduces more of a floor than Rice held prior, but if he is deemed healthy and there are no mentions of a snap count, then I’m comfortable with playing him as a top 20 wide out.

If I lose my league because I play a healthy WR I view as a top-10 talent, I can live with that, whereas I’ll struggle to sleep if I bench him and he posts his fifth top-10 finish of the season.

Rashid Shaheed | SEA (at CAR)

It’s happened twice now where Rashid Shaheed bails you out with a return touchdown, and while that’s very much a part of what he brings to the table, it needs to be additive to a stable profile, not the entire profile for me to be interested.

For the record, I think there is a singular play that Shaheed will make this postseason that changes the complexion of the contest in a major way. That said, it’s hard to know when it’s coming, and that has him off my radar when it comes to setting Super Bowl lineups.

In seven games with the ‘Hawks, he has seven targets inside the opponent’s 40-yard line. That’s a tough way to make a living, given the volume that Jaxon Smith-Njigba soaks up in this slow-moving offense.

It stinks because he’s a fun player, but Shaheed holds far more value to Seattle than he does to you.

Ricky Pearsall | SF (vs CHI)

After missing six weeks with a knee injury, Ricky Pearsall had three slow efforts before looking like the fantasy viable version of himself that we saw in September in Week 15 against the Titans (six catches on seven targets for 96 yards).

His speed is an asset in an offense that requires so much attention in the horizontal pass game, courtesy of Christian McCaffrey, but he needs to be fully right to pay off that upside.

Kyle Shanahan reported early last week that there was “a concern” surrounding Pearsall’s knee/ankle ailments after the big performance and that cost him Week 16. Does he return for Sunday Night Football?

Does it matter?

The Chicago defense isn’t one I fear, and playing at home is helpful, but I’d really have to be backed into a corner to be following this injury situation heading into the weekend. If forced to guess, I’d say he struggles to get on the field, but with him being held under 15 yards in each of the three games before the strong showing opposite a vulnerable Tennessee defense, there’s a lot of risk to swallow in this profile.

Rome Odunze | CHI (at SF)

We got less drama last week from this Rome Oduzne (foot stress fracture) situation, which was ruled out on Thursday, than in Week 15 (ruled inactive 10 minutes before kickoff due to a setback suffered in warmups), making our lineup decisions easier.

That’s now three straight DNP for the talented second-year receiver, and with his practice habits very much being watched, it’s difficult to see him being a full go this week should he return.

Even if he is deemed to be near full strength, can you trust him? Odunze has one top 30 finish in the second half of the season, has one TD since September, and has caught just 38.2% of his targets over his past five games.

Luther Burden (ankle) also sat on Saturday, so there’s a reasonably clear path to high-end volume should the rookie sit and Odunze recover, but that feels like wishcasting more than reading the tea leaves.

This Chicago offense wants to win with the ground and occasional splash plays from Caleb Williams, not one that enters any week with the intent to put high usage on their developing QB.

Odunze has been a net negative since his hot start, and if you’re still alive, it’s because you’ve settled on a secondary option.

I’d keep going in that direction.

Romeo Doubs | GB (vs BAL)

Talk about an up-and-down game.

Romeo Doubs was clearly a pressure point that the Packers were interested in pushing against the Bears on Saturday night as they featured him out of the gate at a level that we hadn’t seen with consistency for over a month.

First Half Receiving Date

• Doubs: 4 catches on 5 targets for 51 yards
• All Other Packers: 5 catches on 11 targets for 42 yards

Easy come, easy go. He mishandled the onside kick that came back to cost the Packers dearly, and it is seemingly illegal for any wideout attached to this offense to sustain success.

Was Doubs impressive and scripted last week?

He was.

Am I assuming that a player who had 79 receiving yards over the four games prior is now a flexible player?

I am not. Give me Christian Watson as the WR1 in this offense, and the only member that I have ranked as a top 30 option at the position.

Stefon Diggs | NE (at NYJ)

Stefon Diggs authored his third top-10 finish of the season last week, and it probably didn’t help you in the least (three straight finishes outside of the top 50 prior).

So now what?

I don’t love that he’s been held without a TD in five straight games, and that there is no priority on giving him a chance to dance (three end-zone targets this season). But the goods outweigh the bad, and that has him sitting as a WR3/Flex in my Week 17 rankings.

The veteran has seen his target share increase in three straight games, and his 81.3% catch rate over his past five is a level of efficiency that can pay the bills in a PPR format.

Diggs lined up in the slot for 70.7% of his snaps last week, and opponents have a 109.8 passer rating (ninth highest) when throwing that direction against the Jets. There’s risk involved, but I’d rather go this direction than throw a dart at Packer receivers or trust Philip Rivers in any capacity.

Tee Higgins | CIN (vs ARI)

Over the past month, Tee Higgins has either been inactive due to a concussion or dominant, with no middle ground.

He lit up the Bills in the snow back in Week 14 (6-92-2), and while he only saw three targets on Sunday in Miami, he went 3-53-1 and was put in a position to leverage his size on two of those looks.

He was on the field for 62.3% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps last week, and with no reports coming out of any sort of post-game complications, it stands to reason that he’ll be a full go in this spot against a Cards defense that is allowing the second-most red zone drives per game (3.9).

Higgins is currently my WR15 for this week, ranking in the Jakobi Meyers tier of safe options with legitimate upside.

Terry McLaurin | WAS (vs DAL)

The Commanders’ offense isn’t explosive with Jayden Daniels out, so posting a time of possession number under 26 minutes puts everybody involved at risk.

Add in a Marcus Mariota injury mid-game, and I think you have to feel good about the 8.3 PPR points that you got from Terry McLaurin.

He saw the first target of the game and was on the right side of a 40-yard pass to set up Washington’s first touchdown of Saturday afternoon, the second straight week he’s used a splash play to save the day.

That may not be a sustainable way to live, but if you’re looking ahead to 2026, it’s good to see those plays work into his catch diet more.

McLaurin: He’s scored in consecutive games against the Cowboys and has earned at least a 25% target share in four of his last five meetings with the divisional rival. Zach Ertz (torn ACL) has scored in his last three games against Dallas, a role that is now obviously up for the taking.

I’m not thrilled about betting on Washington’s offense in any capacity this week, but if I’m going to pull the trigger, it’s on McLaurin.

Tetairoa McMillan | CAR (vs SEA)

Tetairoa McMillan surged to the top of the OROY odds board last week, and he’s deserving.

We’ve seen him earn targets all season, even with the defense essentially knowing where the ball is going, and he’s now just 76 yards away from 1,000.

He’s going to get there. The Panthers tried to get him going with a slant on the first play, and while that didn’t connect, Bryce Young hit him for an 11-yard gain just two plays later. In the first half of their biggest game in recent memory, Carolina counted on their rookie for 57 yards and a touchdown while all of his teammates combined for 50 receiving yards.

I view him as a safe WR2 this week and next season. If you play through Week 18, we could be looking at a top 10 option in the finale should the NFC South come down to it.

Troy Franklin | DEN (at KC)

Troy Franklin is averaging 11.4 PPR points per game and, through 16 weeks, sits as fantasy’s WR36.

That’s fine, and that’s probably where you’d blindly put him in the ranks if you were just to go through the games and eyeball it.

If you were ranking for months at a time, I’d be fine with that placement, but this is a weekly game, and there is a split to chase.

• With Pat Bryant on the field: 16.4% target share, 1.18 yards/route, 26.1% of catches come in the slot
• With Pat Bryant off the field: 21.4% target share, 1.88 yards/route, 55.3% of catches come in the slot

He’s a different receiver, and that bottom split is the situation we expect to find ourselves in due to a Week 16 concussion. We saw DJ Moore walk off the Packers and Stefon Diggs perform over expectations last week … I’d play Franklin over both of them against a Chiefs team that is close to, if not already, checked out.

Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (at LV)

Rate stats are fun and can be predictive.

Until they aren’t.

Wan’Dale Robinson earned 46.2% of New York’s targets last week. In the year 2025, a number like that is supposed to lift you to the type of fantasy performance that wins matchups.

4.9 PPR points.

The Giants were ultra conservative last week (15 runs before throwing a single pass), and I expect that to continue as this team tries to get into the offseason without any more damage to their future.

There’s a role to chase (+30% target share in six of seven games), and this matchup certainly isn’t prohibitive (68.9% complete, second lowest), but is the ceiling high enough to invest in an offense built like this?

I’ve got him as a viable flex in full PPR due to the efficiency of his targets. I’m worried about the fact that he’s been held under 10.5 fantasy points in three of his past five, but there’s a level of role certainty that is a little difficult to find in this tier (Chris Godwin, Marvin Harrison, Emeka Egbuka).

Xavier Worthy | KC (vs DEN)

For 2025, we’ve been done for a while when it comes to Xavier Worthy.

The burner has posted a sub-14% target share in three straight and has failed to score 10 PPR points in six of his past seven. His aDOT is up 36.2% from where it stood a season ago, and I think his role/route tree is truly something Andy Reid will reevaluate this offseason.

What made him so effective in 2024’s run to an AFC crown?

The Rashee Rice moving piece is certainly something to consider, but there has to be a way for us to be in a better spot when Patrick Mahomes is back than where we were in 2025.

Remember in Week 1? He was targeted twice early, left injured, and saw Marquise Brown step into his role and earn double-digit targets without a problem.

If the Chiefs rebound as a team from this nightmare season, I think Worthy holds the key. That opens me up to the idea of buying low on him this summer, but it’ll depend on where his ADP settles.

Zay Flowers | BAL (at GB)

Zay Flowers may not be a Ja’Marr Chase type of alpha, but we mustn’t evaluate this Baltimore passing attack the same way we do the one in Green Bay: this team has a well-defined WR1.

We’ve gotten over 15 PPR points from Flowers in three straight games (35.4% target share), and he’s doing it in an ultra-efficient manner with over three yards per route in each of those contests. In fact, he’s over 2.4 YPRR in eight of the past nine, and that figure can be spun a few different ways:

• He needs to be efficient to be productive, and thus is at risk if a defense keys on him
• Elite players post elite efficiency metrics, and his ceiling is high should the volume spike

Which one of those options you identify with likely dictates where you stand on Flowers. Personally, I’m OK with buying stock in a Todd Monken offense with a strong QB. Flowers is a rock-solid WR2 this week for me, and I think a career season is very much within the range of outcomes in 2026.

Tight Ends

AJ Barner | SEA (at CAR)

Colby Parkinson was the TE that came into Thursday night with the steam of the fantasy community behind him, but maybe we (myself included) fell into the recency trap.

Parkinson was scoring at a Rob Gronkowski level, and that was fun, but he was also consistently one of three tight ends on the field for the Rams. AJ Barner may have entered the game with lower stats, but with both in the same streaming tier at the position, his lack of true competition probably should have been valued higher.

In the overtime win, he was responsible for 36 of Seattle’s 46 tight end routes and was the only TE to earn a target. He’s earned 36 targets over his past six games, seen an end zone look in three of five, caught 12-of-14 third-down passes, and moved the chains on nearly half of his receptions this season.

Barner isn’t flashy, but he’s a reasonable floor play in an offense that really has yet to show us that they are confident in a WR2 (Cooper Kupp looked as good as he has recently, and that meant four targets earned).

Brenton Strange | JAX (at IND)

I’m not here to sell you on Brenton Strange being the savior of the TE position in this, the final week of most leagues, but since returning in Week 12, he’s running 26.4 routes per game and seeing an average of five balls thrown his way for a red-hot passing attack that is simply taking what the defense is giving them.

That meant big games for him and Parker Washington last week in Denver, and while that could flip at a moment’s notice, I kind of think that the Broncos executed their plan.

Keep an eye on Jakobi Meyers/Brian Thomas Jr. and let the chips fall where they may otherwise.

Simply being on the field with this level of regularity is deserving of our attention, never mind the 9.4-yard aDOT across those post-injury games that is fueling some upside (he had a 23-yard catch in the second quarter to set up his three-yard score).

He’s assured of nothing, but he’s attached to a profitable offense and playing an iffy defense that is on a short week: that’ll work!

Brock Bowers | LV (vs NYG)

If you had to guess, how many fewer PPR points is Brock Bowers averaging this year than last?

This is a small section, but I’ll buy you some time to guess before I answer.

Last week in Houston, Bowers scored his seventh touchdown of the season, and while I’d love to give the Raiders credit for getting their difference maker in a position to succeed, it was more the result of the Texans giving him a free release inside the 10-yard line.

I’m not sure there’s a perfect formula for stopping him in close, but allowing him to do whatever he wants doesn’t feel optimal.

He’s been hotter of late than you might expect: four scores in four games with an 86.4% catch rate over that stretch. It’s not peak, drop everything and watch him destroy opponents, Bowers, but it’s a heck of a lot closer to our preseason expectations than what we were getting prior.

Here me out: maybe he’s finally healthy?

You’d have to think that the QB play next season (you’re locking him in this week, that’s a given) is at least a little better than what Vegas has subjected him to, and that keeps him in the top tier for me at the position.

Trey McBride has been too good to say he’s not leading the 2026 TE rankings, but after him, it’s wide open, and Bowers right now is my favorite to land that spot.

0.77. That’s how many fewer PPR PPG Bowers is averaging this season than last. That’s a sub-5% drop after an injury and, for the most part, completely inept play under center.

Cade Otton | TB (at MIA)

Cade Otton returned from the knee injury last week, and you haven’t been reading closely enough if you were burned by him managing just two targets on 22 routes.

He’s an afterthought in this offense when the receivers are anywhere close to healthy, and that’s been the case since the beginning of last season. Otton is the poster boy for this, but he’s not the only one. Use this as a reminder as we near the offseason: surroundings dictate production as much as anything, and when they change, don’t be afraid to shift your opinion.

Otton is a viable option when he’s Will Smith in that meme and the only guy left in the living room. But that’s all he is for our purposes.

Chig Okonkwo | TEN (vs NO)

There’s no bad day to have a great day, but Chig Okonkwo scoring 16.4 PPR points (his first game with even a dozen points this season) didn’t exactly help those of us who had shares of him in October.

This is an athletic profile at a tough position with a developing, high-pedigree QB. In theory, this is a profile we should like. He was the target on Cam Ward’s first completion last week (two 15-yard receptions in the first quarter were nice), and his first touchdown of the season came on a nice design for a seven-yard shovel pass.

I want him to be viable next season, and I hope that he will be. I’ll go on record with this: it’ll be him or Theo Johnson that emerges as a TE with a second-year star QB that helps fantasy teams.

Ideally, both, but at least one of them. Check back in August to see where I settle!

One good effort, however, isn’t enough to land him inside my Top 15 this week: you can find better.

Colby Parkinson | LAR (at ATL)

Well, that was a buzzkill.

After finishing five of six weeks as a TE1, Colby Parkinson crushed all of our dreams in thinking that we had solved the position with a late-season gem.

Sean McVay went heavy with the ‘13’ personnel, and while that really isn’t new for him, the usage was unlike what we’ve seen over the past two months from Matthew Stafford.

• Parkinson: 36 routes, 4 targets
• Terrance Fergsuon: 36 routes, 4 targets, TD
• Davis Allen: 22 routes, 5 targets

And this is exactly why a player like Trey McBride is so valuable. McVay is ahead of the curve with formation sets like this, where the defense has to decide whether to operate at a size or athleticism disadvantage. While that’s great for Los Angeles, things like this can happen for fantasy purposes because we are at the mercy of the defense, not the offense.

That’s a bigger topic for another day, but the Seahawks didn’t want Parkinson to beat them in a meaningful way, and this offense isn’t designed to force the issue; instead, it’s designed to adapt and adjust.

Arizona doesn’t have that luxury with McBride. It’s feed him or see your offense starve. I’m going to be putting more weight into ranking the supporting casts when evaluating this position next season, downgrading situations like this where variance is an asset for the offense, not a detriment.

As for Week 17, Parkinson still carries low-end TE1 potential, but judging how Atlanta will defend him is difficult because that decision depends on how they view their linebacker matchups in these three-tight-end sets.

I’m comfortable playing Parkinson, but not feeling obligated to do so.

Cole Kmet | CHI (at SF)

Even in a game without two of their primary receivers, Cole Kmet finished with just 14 yards (fifth on the team).

He ran more routes than Colston Loveland, but he earned fewer targets, and it was the rookie getting the red zone touch. It’s become very clear that Kmet’s impact in the fantasy world is the value he takes away from Loveland and not anything he holds as an isolated option at the position.

There is no truly “bad” streaming option at tight end because so little separates TE11 and TE24 in a given week, but there are “bad” process plays, and Kmet would certainly fall into that bucket.

Colston Loveland | CHI (at SF)

We’ve only seen Colston Loveland reach a 19% target share once this season, and Cole Kmet ran more routes during the overtime win over the Packers. Still, the rookie was targeted on one-quarter of his routes, and he continues to prove himself as an emerging asset.

The breakout is coming, and maybe we’ll get a glimpse of it during the postseason. The talent is obvious, but the role isn’t as clear as it needs to be. With Kmet continuing to split duties with him, his fantasy upside is capped in such a way, even in a favorable matchup against a team with a reasonable rest disadvantage, that I can’t get Loveland inside of my top 10 this week.

Dallas Goedert | PHI (at BUF)

With a 15-yard TD, Dallas Goedert salvaged a third-quarter drive that got to the one-yard line and immediately went in reverse.

The veteran took full advantage of his five-inch height advantage and kept the ball high to complete his 10th score of the season (career high entering this season: five TD receptions).

He continues to beat me, but I think you’re on borrowed time here. Saturday was the seventh time in nine games in which he caught under five passes: he’s not a featured option in a low-volume offense, and that’s a tough way to make a living.

With the division sewn up, the Eagles know they will have a home playoff game. I’m not suggesting they coast in the final two weeks, but they’ve accomplished their primary goal for the regular season and don’t have much to play for. Goedert is a fringe TE1 at best, the same spot I’ve had him ranked all season and largely gotten beat by doing.

I’m a slave to the process, and I just can’t get there on the third option in this passing game.

Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs PHI)

I’m not sure if it’s a health thing, a scheme thing, or a depth chart thing, and to be honest, I don’t really care.

Dalton Kincaid has nine catches in total over his past four games and was on the field for only 38% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps last week in Cleveland.

It’s clear that the team views him as a receiver more than anything (12 routes on 19 snaps when Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes combined for 21 routes on 66 snaps), but they haven’t prioritized him in any sort of way, and there’s no way you can go this direction with confidence.

Buffalo’s first tight end target went to Hawes last week: this is a split situation, and the pie they are splitting isn’t very big in the first place.

Dalton Schultz | HOU (at LAC)

Dalton Schultz is the gold standard for how most people like to draft the TE position, and it is always underappreciated.

He’s scored a TD in consecutive games and has at least 11 PPR points in six of his past eight. Schultz is unlikely to post a big number that doubles the production your opponent got and carries you to victory, and that would be a pain if he played any other position.

But he doesn’t. He’s a tight end, and you’re not allowed to complain about consistently viable numbers at that position.

His value for 2026 could be an issue if these rookie receivers develop into real options next to Nico Collins, but that’s not going to happen overnight, and that’s why Schultz is again inside of my top-10 this weekend.

Darren Waller | MIA (vs TB)

I can’t decide if Darren Waller is a physical marvel or a product of circumstance. He saw five targets on 18 routes last week against the Bengals and isn’t really being pushed for the secondary role in the passing game (WR/TE) behind Jaylen Waddle.

The quality of the targets is an issue with Quinn Ewers poised to make his second start, but this is a pass-funnel defense that could flip how the Dolphins plan for this game.

I’m still leery of the downside, but if he’s going to be targeted on one of every four routes (22-yard grab on the first drive in Week 16), he’s going to be in the low-end TE1 mix.

Evan Engram | DEN (at KC)

I had such high expectations for Evan Engram this season, and I was wrong in a major way.

Last week, we did see him nearly double the route count of Adam Trautman, something that wasn’t the case in Week 15, and with Pat Bryant banged up, there’s a theoretical path to him being one of the sneakier plays of the week.

Go this way in a showdown DFS contest or something along those lines: it doesn’t make sense to swallow this amount of risk (one end zone target this season and only one 40+ yard game since mid-October) in a season-long finale.

George Kittle | SF (vs CHI)

George Kittle racked up a season high 111 air yards on Monday night in Indy (previous season high: 75) and has scored in consecutive games.

The upside is evident in how they use him, and his efficiency supports the floor. Kittle has caught at least 80% of his targets in eight of 10 games this season (19 catches on 22 targets over the past three games) and is averaging 1.2 red zone touches per game.

The receivers in San Francisco can have their moments, but this passing game is built to support Kittle and Christian McCaffrey: play him and enjoy your weekly edge over the teams that don’t have Trey McBride.

Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE (vs PIT)

Remember way back in the early 2020s when we denounced rookie tight ends?

Now it seems like you’re leaving food on the table by not at least taking on a flyer on someone of that ilk: Kyle Pitts, Sam LaPorta, Brock Bowers, and now Harold Fannin all greatly impacted the direction of fantasy leagues thanks to a combination of production and cost.

The pride of Bowling Green (117 catches in his final season, so it’s not as if this role is something we haven’t seen) broke the Cleveland franchise record for receptions by a rookie last week, and shortly thereafter, he recorded his fifth TD catch of the season on a nice Shedeur Sanders-designed rollout.

The Browns gave him his seventh carry of the season later in that loss to Buffalo, a quick handoff with him lined up as a fullback for a one-yard score.

The Tush Push may be a thing of the past sooner rather than later, but this team is clearly interested in getting this size/seep prospect opportunities to put points on the board consistently.

You could argue that the league catches up to him a bit (the aforementioned first-year stars have all had production swings), but I’d combat that with the idea that this passing game can only develop further as Sanders finds his footing.

I’ve yet to put together my 2026 rankings, but I’ll have Fannin as a Tier 2 option at the position, which gives him a good shot at being a top-5 player. You’re playing him without concern this week, and I think that’s going to be the status quo for years to come.

Hunter Henry | NE (at NYJ)

Investing in the Patriots sounds like a fun idea until you actually do it.

Sunday night against the Ravens was Hunter Henry’s third game over 15 PPR points this season, and that’s great, but he also has three games under three points (and seven games under eight points).

Swings in production are a part of the business, but I find I’m less likely to deal with them at tight end. The Trey McBrides of the world, yes, but there are a dozen tight ends in this Henry tier, and I’m more inclined to play form/situation as opposed to planting my flag on any one option.

Henry is on the fringe of my top 15: a viable streamer, but behind Brenton Strange and Colby Parkinson for me. He benefited from two end zone targets last week; it should be noted that it was his first multi-end zone target game since Week 3.

The Patriots are going to score, that much we feel good about, and that’s reason enough to roll the dice in this direction if you’re backed into a corner. That said, the two mentioned above have a cleaner path to a floor in my eyes.

Isaiah Likely | BAL (at GB)

If this Baltimore offense was off and running, I could see hoping that an athlete like Isaiah Likely falls into a high-usage spot, but it’s not, so I can’t.

He split 24 routes down the middle with Mark Andrews last week and now has 22 targetless routes on his resume for the past two weeks. With the veteran re-upping on his contract during the season, we need to find a new home for Likely, and we need to do it quickly while the stock is this affordable.

Right now, he’s nowhere near lineups, but stick him in Denver, Washington, Tampa Bay, or Seattle, and I won’t apologize for ranking him as a TE1 in 2026.

Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (vs SEA)

The drought ends on a crazy Bryce Young scramble drill!

Ja’Tavion Sanders caught his first TD in the USA courtesy of the playmaking abilities of his quarterback, uncovering in the back of the end zone while the secondary lost track of him.

He obviously hasn’t done nearly enough this season to warrant our attention, and that projects to be the case this week as well. That said, he’s a part of this young nucleus that the Panthers are hoping can develop into a core that keeps them in the playoff mix for years to come.

And I think they can.

Jake Ferguson | DAL (at WAS)

There’s an argument to be made for selling high on any tight end spike that comes from a player not in the top tier at the position (for me, that’s Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and George Kittle, but you could possibly lump a few more names up there), and Jake Ferguson is the latest example of why.

Usage Decline

• Weeks 1-7: 22.4% target share, 1.59 yards per route
• Weeks 8-16: 13.8% target share, 0.98 yards per route

He’s been held under five PPR points in three straight and hasn’t reached 12 points in a game since Week 7. If we accept that the position is all over the place and generally flares after the true difference makers, why wouldn’t we try to extract value when the stock is peaking?

Of course, you’ll never know exactly when that is, but I’d rather have sold Ferguson a week or two early than be going home early because I held on far too long.

This is a plus matchup, and that’s why I have him hovering around TE1 status, not because of anything he has shown us over the past two months.

Juwan Johnson | NO (at TEN)

Juwan Johnson is a good example of when an opportunity for a teammate serves as a tide that rises all ships.

Do I think Johnson is a difference-making talent? Not really, but you could have gotten on him following the Rashid Shaheed trade and profited on the thought that the Saints are motivated to let Tyler Shough develop through volume.

Not all of his passes are on time, and a lot of them go to Chris Olave, but there isn’t much depth here, and Shough is averaging 25 completions per game over his past five. Johnson has caught 16 of 17 targets during New Orleans’ win streak, and with his cap hit spiking next season, this team is motivated to find where the rookie QB is most comfortable.

I would have never thought three months ago that I’d be shilling Johnson as an easy top-10 play in fantasy Super Bowls, but that’s where we are (seven of his eight catches last week came in the first half, another positive sign when it comes to trying to evaluate the scripted schemes).

Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL (vs LAR)

In the first six quarters of this fantasy postseason, Kyle Pitts scored four times, matching his most for a season before this spurt.

Sunday was the Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Pitts (Cousins missed him on an open end zone target in the fourth quarter) show from the jump (that trio accounted for 20 of 21 first-half targets), and that’s all we can ask for: we want a featured tight end in an open offense that largely plays weatherproof games.

The Rams’ defense has strong season-long numbers, but they have allowed over 30 points in three of their past four games. While I wouldn’t paint them as vulnerable, they aren’t an autofade like they were for the first two months.

We could waste time arguing if Pitts is Mr. Right when it comes to filling out a pass-catching nucleus in a developing offense, but he’s certainly Mr. Right Now for fantasy managers, and I see no reason to pivot off of this red-hot profile.

Luke Musgrave | GB (vs BAL)

The 26-yard grab was a nice highlight and gives Luke Musgrave a splash play (20+ yards) in three of his past four, but given that he’s earned five targets in a game just once this season, it’s clear that the Tucker Kraft role was more Tucker Kraft and less role.

With a 77.4% catch rate this season and some downfield ability, there is something there in this profile, but probably not on this roster when it’s at full strength.

The efficiency gives him a chance to slide into the top 12 conversation this week, if for no other reason than if he can get to that five-target threshold, that a four-catch day gives you a chance to matter at the position. That and the fact that Green Bay is playing meaningful football are important.

That said, you’re still taking on significant risk, and I’m not sure the reward is worth it. Musgrave is sitting outside of my top 12 this week and thus not a priority play by any means.

Mark Andrews | BAL (at GB)

It’s been a saying for years in professional sports, and it’s as true as it’s ever been when looking at the TE spot in Baltimore: “when you have two [insert position], you have none”.

Mark Andrews has celebrated his contract extension with three straight games under 25 receiving yards. Not how I’d do it, but to each’s own.

His aDOT has reached 11+ yards in all three of those contests, and that’s just not how he wins (aDOT this season prior: 7.7 yards).

We are talking about a TE who desperately needs a TD to pay off: we don’t know about his QB situation, and he hasn’t seen an end zone look in three of his past four. He’s in a position to fail, and so are you if you roster him based on name value.

Mike Gesicki | CIN (vs ARI)

Mike Gesicki scored in the fourth quarter last week, giving the Bengals a 31-point lead because 24 obviously wasn’t enough against the fightin’ Quinn Ewers of Miami.

It was odd to see him still in the game, but all points count the same, and the 17-yard score made up for an otherwise quiet day.

From a fantasy perspective, Gesicki is what we want: a bad blocker that is only asked to run routes in a potent offense. The idea of that role is sound, but with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown soaking up so much usage, there is no real path for the TE position to produce on a consistent basis.

I’ve got him ranked in the Hunter Henry/Oronde Gadsden tier at the position, and that’s easily outside of my top 12.

Oronde Gadsden | LAC (vs HOU)

I’m not sold that Oronde Gadsden and Quentin Johnston can co-exist in this offense.

We’ve seen both produce big numbers for spurts. Still, rarely together, and with Johnston taking a step forward last week via the drive-changing plays, that has me fading Gadsden in favor of streamers like Colby Parkinson and Brenton Strange, who have shown more potential recently.

The Bolts have won four straight, and they’ve done it with their TE1 earning just 12.2% of the targets. Don’t overthink this one and move on.

T.J. Hockenson | MIN (vs DET)

This has been a dreadful season for T.J. Hockenson, and one target on 24 routes last weekend was just another example. As bad as that sounds, it wasn’t even his first game this season with a sub 5% target share, and with his yards per route run down 30.3% from a season ago, it’s easy to connect the dots and say that his best days are behind him.

These difficult onesie positions require us to take stands and move on when something doesn’t smell right. Hock missed seven games a season ago and failed to score on his 62 targets; our antennas probably should have picked up this level of risk with a change taking place under center.

Theo Johnson | NYG (at LV)

This Giants offense is coasting into the offseason.

For the record, I don’t hate it. Actually, I support it. Why take any more risk during a season that has seen your franchise WR go down with a serious injury, your bellcow of the future suffer a similar fate, and your prized QB visit the blue medical tent more often than my brother hits up an open bar.

Theo Johnson was shut out on his 14 routes last week. We need to see more from him as a target earner, but the low-volume passing attack is likely here to stay for two more weeks, and that makes penciling in any sort of upside nearly impossible.

Johnson is a plus-plus athlete, but his upside has been capped at 10.7 PPR points over his past five, and he’s been held under seven points in the majority of those contests. With his last red zone touch coming in Week 9, there’s not even a cheap touchdown thread to pull.

Don’t lose track of the name for 2026, but there’s no need to make this click in 2025.

Travis Kelce | KC (vs DEN)

I could tell you that Travis Kelce has a touchdown in two straight Broncos games or that the future Hall of Famer has earned at least nine looks in six straight against the divisional rival, but does it matter?

This offense is broken, and the future is uncertain for the tight end at best. He turned four targets into six yards last week in Tennessee and has eclipsed 45 receiving yards just once over the past month.

Throwback to the legendary Travis Kelce christmas day game back in 2016 pic.twitter.com/8e18fyTju2

— Dos (@Dos_knowsball) December 24, 2025

If you want to build up the narrative of him going out with a bang, go nuts. From a numbers and trends standpoint, there’s little to suggest that anyone from this offense is going to be viable this week.

Brenton Strange, Hunter Henry, Darren Waller, etc.

There is someone on your waiver wire with a more appealing Week 17 outlook than Kelce.

Trey McBride | ARI (at CIN)

Trey McBride was my fantasy regular-season MVP, and for him to leave us wanting more during the semifinals is just a brutal outcome.

Don’t forget that he’s the reason you made it that far, and if you were able to survive his dud, you go back to the well and don’t even think twice. We are labeling Week 16 as his floor (4-27-0), and at least half a dozen teams in your league would sign up for 27.6% of the targets and an end-zone look as a great outcome.

That’s what McBride gave you in his worst game of the season, which snapped his record-breaking streak of 5+ catch games.

Rinse it off and move on. He’s my TE1 this week and for 2026.

Tyler Warren | IND (vs JAX)

Tyler Warren’s fantasy production has very much hit a wall (three games under seven PPR points), but with his target share increasing each game over that stretch, there is a path for him to make it back to the top-12 sooner than later.

That said, this offense is struggling with consistency, and that’s held the versatile rookie to just one end zone target over his past eight games.

Warren isn’t the auto-start he once was, and he caught just two passes on 37 routes in this meeting in Week 14. There’s risk to weigh, but that’s the case for roughly 25 of the starting tight ends in the league.

Sign me up for a TE13 ranking, in that Jake Ferguson (at WAS) and Hunter Henry (at NYJ) tier.