The Denver Broncos lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16, which hurt their chances of finishing as the top seed in the AFC.
Let’s take a closer look at Denver’s chances of finishing the season with the best record in the AFC, and what needs to happen for them to make the cut.
AFC West Week 17 Playoff Scenarios: Chargers Chasing Broncos to the Finish
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, after their win against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Broncos have an 80.30% chance of winning the AFC West. The Chargers are in second place with a 19.70% chance of winning the AFC West, boasting an 11-4 record. Both teams are locked into the NFL Playoffs.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders, meanwhile, are both eliminated from the NFL Playoffs and the AFC West division race. According to the PFSN FPM, the Raiders have a 34.6% chance of earning the No. 1 overall pick, the second-highest percentage, behind only the New York Giants.
We can center the AFC West focus on two teams heading into the season-closing stretch: The Broncos and Chargers. The Broncos currently hold the division lead by a one-game margin over Los Angeles, but the Chargers have a head-to-head win in the bank already.
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A Denver win in Week 17 against the Chiefs clinches the division only if the Chargers lose. If the Chargers win in Week 17, then the Chargers can still manifest an instant AFC West title in Week 18 by beating the Broncos, securing the sweep, and locking in the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Both teams are still guaranteed to be in the NFL Playoffs, but at this stage, they’re playing for more than just a banner and custom hats. The Broncos are the likeliest team to claim the No. 1 overall seed and the first-round bye in the AFC, with a 63.1% chance to earn that honor, according to the PFSN FPM.
The loss of said first overall pick could have ramifications for the Broncos, who would lose home-field advantage and be required to play on a quicker turnaround in the postseason.
If the Chargers win out and win the AFC West, they have a 7% chance of claiming the No. 1 overall seed with a record of 13-4, but they would need both the Jaguars and Patriots to lose at least one game. With the Patriots playing the Dolphins and Jets to close out the year, that seems unlikely to happen.
The percentages heavily favor the Denver Broncos at this stage in the AFC West race, but the Chargers can flip the script on its head by winning out and getting their second head-to-head win in the season finale.
Remaining 2025 Schedule for NFC North Teams
Below, you’ll find the remaining schedules for each AFC West team in the NFL Playoff race, along with each team’s chance of winning, according to the PFSN FPM.
Denver Broncos’ Remaining Games
Los Angeles Chargers’ Remaining Games
- Week 17: vs. Houston Texans (45.6%)
- Week 18: at Denver Broncos (39.8%)
For the Chargers, who are working from behind with two weeks left in the regular season, it’s not ideal to have a chance of winning below 50% in both of their final two contests.
Beating the red-hot Texans’ defense will already be a tough ask in Week 17, and then the Chargers have to take on the Broncos at Mile High Stadium.
The Broncos, meanwhile, were able to get the win against a Chiefs team that’s down to its third-string quarterback, 2022 seventh-round pick Chris Oladokun, after losing both Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew to injuries.
The Chargers must win against the Texans to keep their AFC West hopes alive, but their previous win over the Broncos, back in late September, is their ace up their sleeve.
If the two teams enter Week 18 with their current difference or with the same record, it’ll be a “winner-take-all” scenario for the AFC West. But if Los Angeles falls to Houston, the Broncos can clinch the division early.
