The Denver Broncos may have lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16, but they still control their destiny in the AFC West.
Let’s take a closer look at the Broncos’ chances of making the NFL Playoffs under Sean Payton in 2025, and what needs to happen for them to make the cut.
What Are the Denver Broncos’ Chances of Making the Playoffs and Winning the AFC West?
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, after their win against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Broncos have an 80.40% chance of winning the AFC West, and they have already made the playoffs.
Sitting at 13-3, the Broncos’ worst possible record is 13-4. Before their Week 16 loss against the Jaguars, they had won 11 straight games, and they’re still on pace to have one of the best records in the entire NFL.
The PFSN FPM gives the Broncos a 63.1% chance of finishing as the top seed in the AFC. In comparison, the New England Patriots currently have a 16.80% chance to end up as the first seed in the conference.
The Broncos are in a position where, as long as they take care of their own business, they can seal their fate as a division winner and potential top overall seed.
The Patriots are their closest competitor for the No. 1 seed, but the Broncos have the common opponents tiebreaker in a scenario where the two teams finish on the same rung.
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All this talk about the No. 1 overall seed, and you’d think the Broncos would already have their division locked up, but that strangely isn’t the case. In the scenario that Denver slips, the Los Angeles Chargers are just one game behind them and still have a head-to-head game against Denver to benefit from.
The game before Denver’s 11-game winning streak was, in fact, a loss to the Chargers, so if the Chargers manage to both finish the season tied with Denver and beat Denver in Week 18, the Chargers would have the head-to-head tiebreaker and thus secure the division as a result.
If Denver does falter and lose the division lead to the Chargers, they’ll likely be one of the top two-seeded Wild Card teams, but they would lose home-field advantage in that scenario, as well as the first-round bye provided by having the top overall seed.
Broncos’ Remaining 2025 Schedule
The Kansas City Chiefs are traditionally a threat, but in the wake of Patrick Mahomes’ season-ending injury, Denver had a 66.9% chance of winning in Week 17, according to the PFSN FPM, and they got the job done. Denver now only has one game remaining in the season:
- Week 18: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The season-closing stretch for Denver will ultimately culminate in a potential division-deciding matchup between the Broncos and the Chargers.
The Chargers still need to take care of business against the surging Houston Texans to stay in the division race, but if both teams win in Week 17, their Week 18 clash will be a “winner-take-all” showdown.
In that scenario, Denver would have a one-game lead heading into the finale, but Los Angeles would have the head-to-head tiebreaker with a win.
Still, the FPM gives the Broncos a 60.2% chance of winning at home against the Chargers. If the Chargers’ combined with the Broncos’ favorable matchup in Week 17 factors into their 71.9% chance to win the division.
No matter what, the Broncos will be in the AFC Playoffs. But right now, there’s a six-seed swing based on how they perform in the final two weeks. They could lock down the No. 1 overall seed and a first-round bye, or they could slip into Wild Card territory.
