Since Brett Yormark took the reins of the Big 12 Conference, he’s done everything he can to elevate its profile. A closely fought contest at the top involving multiple teams helped his cause last season, and there is every reason to believe that we’re about to witness a slugfest for supremacy in the conference once more.
Our Big 12 football schedule projection uses the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor to simulate the entire 2025 campaign, complete with final standings, a Big 12 Championship Game prediction, and week-by-week results.
Big 12 Championship Game Frontrunners: Utah, Iowa State
Get your tie-breaker scenarios ready, folks. The Big 12 provided the most dramatic climax to the season a year ago, and with a projected five teams finishing with the same record (6-3) in our predictions, it might get complicated again. However, the Iowa State Cyclones (8-4 overall) return to the Big 12 Championship Game, taking on the Utah Utes (9-3) at AT&T Stadium.
The case for Iowa State is a relatively simple one. The Cyclones are coming off the best season (by overall record) of the Matt Campbell era. Ranked by the College Football Playoff committee for the first time since 2020, Iowa State ended the year within the AP Poll Top 25 for only the third time this millennium. Two years after a disastrous 1-8 Big 12 campaign, Campbell has it figured out.
Hopes for the Cyclones start and end with Rocco Becht. While his 81.0 (B-) PFSN College QB+ grade makes him only the fourth-ranked Big 12 quarterback returning for this season, there is an element to the Iowa State standout’s play that makes you believe that the program is always in a game. He loses two 1,000+ yard receivers, but Chase Sowell was a stellar addition.
Defensively, there’s no escaping the impact of the lost pieces. Yet, Jeremiah Cooper is one of the best defensive backs in the Big 12, and Jontez Williams led the team with four interceptions a year ago. Linebacker Kooper Ebel also returns to the team after leading the Cyclones in tackles for loss, and there are talented young players looking to make their name known this fall.
We’re going to find out a lot about Iowa State early in the season, as the program travels to Dublin for its Farmageddon Rivalry with the Kansas State Wildcats. They also face the BYU Cougars and Arizona State Sun Devils in the middle of the year, but hosting those games could be a difference-maker.
While Iowa State returning to the Big 12 Championship Game might not prove to be controversial, Utah’s second-year rise could take some by surprise. The former Pac-12 pacesetter suffered a torrid time in its inaugural conference campaign. They slumped to a 5-7 overall record with just two in-conference wins, heaping pressure on long-tenured head coach Kyle Whittingham.
The Utah coach has a succession plan in place, but it wasn’t at the head of the program where significant change was made this offseason. The Utes bring in former New Mexico Lobos play-caller Jason Beck, who engineered one of college football’s most exciting and dangerous offenses a year ago. Beck’s arrival breathes fresh air into a stale unit that struggled through multiple QBs in 2024.
Injuries and inconsistency mired the Utes last season, but with Cam Rising retiring, there’s a new sheriff in town to marshal this new-look offense. Devon Dampier is a true dual-threat who led all returning quarterbacks with 19 rushing touchdowns, while only Navy Midshipman Blake Horvath rushed for more than Dampier’s 1,166 yards.
Devon Dampier at Utah this season might be in the Heisman discussion pic.twitter.com/rpc7NUT6el
— Kurt Benkert (@KurtBenkert) June 30, 2025
The Utes also grabbed highly rated running back Wayshawn Parker and a trio of pass catchers out of the transfer portal, completely overhauling and upgrading the offense. Crucially, starting offensive tackles Caleb Lomu and Spencer Fano are back in Salt Lake City, affording Dampier a solid base from which to play behind. Things are about to get fun for Utes fans.
Allowing just 20.7 points per game (25th nationally) and receiving the highest grade among Big 12 units from the PFSN College Defense+ metric (85.53, B), defense wasn’t the issue for Utah last season. With the return of multiple starters, it should be a strong suit for the program once more. And with an upgraded offense and stellar defense, a title game berth isn’t a pipe dream.
The Contenders: BYU, Colorado, Arizona State
Okay, let’s start the contenders section of the Big 12 predictions with a disclaimer. At the time of simulating the campaign, the College Football Playoff Predictor didn’t account for the changes in circumstances within BYU’s football program. As such, there is the potential that the Cougars could fall due to uncertainties over the quarterback situation mere weeks from kickoff.
Whether Kalani Sitake chooses to roll with McCae Hillstead, Treyson Bourguet, or seeks another addition from the transfer portal (TJ Finley headlines the remaining options), there’s an impact. However, a talented wide receiver like Chase Roberts will help the transition. Meanwhile, LJ Martin gives the Cougars a solid component in the ground game for the 2025 campaign.
Ultimately, it wasn’t their offense that took them to the brink of a Big 12 Championship Game appearance a year ago. BYU had one of the best defenses in the conference. The presence of Isaiah Glasker and Jack Kelly as one of the best linebacker duos in the country ensures continuity for the Cougars, while Evan Johnson and Raider Damuni lead a talented secondary.
MORE: 2025 College Football Strength of Schedule for All 136 FBS Teams
With just 10 projected starters arriving from the transfer portal this offseason, the Colorado Buffaloes have had one of the tamest turnovers in the playing staff of the Deion Sanders era. Of course, losing Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders is a significant blow to the program, but there’s just about as close to continuity as you’re likely to find under “Coach Prime” in Boulder.
A quarterback battle between Kaidon Salter and freshman Julian Lewis is yet to be officially decided. Yet, it would be a surprise not to see the former Liberty Flames standout and 2023 CUSA Offensive Player of the Year earn the job. A return to that form, with a wide receiver duo of Omarion and Dre’lon Miller, should give the Buffaloes an offensive advantage in most games.
Colorado had the second-highest graded defense in the Big 12 by PFSN College Defense+ last season (81.58, B-), and several pieces return. I’d expect cornerback DJ McKinney to establish himself among the top defensive backs in the country this fall. At the same time, the addition of former Alabama Crimson Tide nose tackle Jehiem Oatis helps shore up the defensive front.
Last of the projected 6-3 teams in the Big 12 is the reigning champion, the Arizona State Sun Devils. The path to a return to Arlington is a challenging one, with road games at Baylor, Utah, Iowa State, and Colorado. They also take on a Texas Tech team ranked in the preseason and a good TCU program. There aren’t many gimmes on Kenny Dillingham’s schedule.
On the plus side for the Sun Devils, the return of Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson gives Arizona State one of the best QB/WR duos in the country. The combination helped power the 13th-highest-graded offense in the country by PFSN College Offense+ (83.64, B), a marker good enough for second in the Big 12.
However, that grade included the contributions of Cam Skattebo, the do-it-all running back who pulverized opponents for fun last fall while tallying 2,316 all-purpose yards, 24 touchdowns, and finishing with the fifth-most Heisman Trophy votes. They added Kanye Udoh from the Army Black Knights to shoulder some of that load, but Skattebo’s loss will be felt.
Middle of the Pack: Kansas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Kansas State, Cincinnati
After a difficult start to the 2024 campaign, the Kansas Jayhawks rallied to four wins in the final six games, including two over ranked teams that mixed up the makeup of the Big 12 title race. Some key components of that late-season success, notably the cornerback duo of Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson, plus program record-setting running back Devin Neal, are gone.
The Jayhawks will have to overcome a schedule featuring Iowa State, Kansas State, and Texas Tech to return to a winning record. However, that has become the standard under Lance Leipold, and with a healthy Jalon Daniels at quarterback, Kansas has the roster to achieve it after making some quality transfer portal acquisitions — headlined by linebacker Bangally Kamara.
There have been high expectations for the Texas Tech Red Raiders for the past three seasons since Joey McGuire took over in Lubbock, and 2025 is no different. After moving to six Big 12 wins last fall, could this year be the one where they challenge for a conference crown, or will they come up short once again?
A road schedule featuring trips to Utah, Arizona State, and Kansas State is suboptimal for that aspiration. They also face BYU in early November, although that fixture is in Lubbock, one of just four home games in the Big 12. Unless Behren Morton keeps healthy and Quinten Joyner quickly steps into the shoes of the departed Tahj Brooks, those games all have loss potential.
That said, Texas Tech made real strides in addressing an issue that has long been its Achilles’ heel: the defense. McGuire mined the transfer portal to produce a defensive front of David Bailey, Lee Hunter, Skyler Gill-Howard, and Romello Height that might just be the scariest in the Big 12 if they all click early in the year.
Josh Hoover’s Week 1 Debut RACKED UP The Yards
TCU’s QB1: 28/42 passes for 353 yards with 3 total TDs!@big12conference | @tcufootball #Big12FB #TCU #GoFrogs pic.twitter.com/xsgQYRmQfs
— Big 12 Studios (@big12studios) August 31, 2024
Josh Hoover might have been disrespected by EA Sports College Football 26. Still, the TCU Horned Frogs passer is PFSN’s highest-graded returning quarterback to the Big 12 after receiving an 83.1 (B) grade for a season where he threw for 3,949 yards and 27 touchdowns. His return to Fort Worth is significant for the direction of the program.
TCU also gets back Eric McAlister, one of the country’s most impressive route runners, who should emerge as the main beneficiary of Jack Bech’s NFL Draft selection. They also added Joseph Manjack IV from the transfer portal to ensure Hoover has plenty of outlets to throw to from behind a solid interior offensive line.
There are plenty of returning defensive starters for the Horned Frogs, too. However, their 2025 schedule is rough. An out-of-conference dalliance with the ACC sees them face the North Carolina Tar Heels to open the year, before a Week 4 clash with the SMU Mustangs. TCU also faces multiple Big 12 title contenders in conference play, limiting its ceiling somewhat.
It looked rough for Dave Aranda early in the 2024 season, with many fans (and some college football analysts) calling for his job after the Baylor Bears slumped to a 2-4 start to the campaign. Yet, they strung together six wins in conference play to end the year, representing the Big 12 in the Texas Bowl and taking momentum into the 2025 CFB campaign.
Sawyer Robertson and Bryson Washington established themselves as one of the most dangerous backfields in the Big 12. Robertson’s NFL build, power-run capability, and alluring arm make him one of the top quarterbacks in the country, and he has a trio of playmaking pass catchers that bolster the offense. With 34.4 points per game, Baylor finished with the 19th-ranked scoring unit in the country last fall, something that should continue.
Unlike a traditional Aranda team, Baylor’s concerns start on defense. They gave up 26.7 points a game in 2024, and some of the best talent from that unit is no longer there. They added some quality and depth in the portal, but the Bears face some offenses that can really capitalize on those defensive fragilities.
After going 9-4 last season, and with the expectation of being a frontrunner in the Big 12 every year, the Wildcats being considered a “middle of the pack” team might meet with some resistance. After all, they bring back Avery Johnson, Jayce Brown, and Dylan Edwards as a talented offensive trio that would strike fear into the heart of most defensive coordinators.
Still, Chris Klieman’s team had to rework the offensive line this offseason, and there are key defensive pieces who won’t return to Manhattan for the 2025 campaign. The schedule isn’t brutal, but there are pinch points that could swing the tide of Kansas State’s season in an unpleasant direction. This team was only 5-4 in Big 12 play a year ago, and sneaked some one-score games.
As the only 6-6 team in our Big 12 predictions, you could argue that the Cincinnati Bearcats are the only true “middle of the pack” team. Compiling a 4-5 Big 12 record would be another step in the right direction for a program that entered the conference as one of the Group of Five frontrunners, but hasn’t been close to competitive since its arrival ahead of the 2023 season.
Brendan Sorsby was a top-50 graded quarterback last fall, with a 78.7 (C+) grade. The dual-threat passer returns for the 2025 campaign and should be at the forefront of any success the Bearcats have. On defense, Dontay Corleone opting for another go around at the college level after health concerns is huge for a unit that also added standout Coastal Carolina DB Matthew McDoom.
Bottom 5: West Virginia, UCF, Arizona, Houston, Oklahoma State
With the return of Rich Rodriguez, there’s renewed hope around the West Virginia Mountaineers football program ahead of the 2025 season. However, there are challenging ties at either end of the schedule, and it might take more than this year to get the personnel in place to make Rodriguez’s up-tempo offense to work to the same level it did for Jacksonville State the past two years.
The UCF Knights fan base is one of the most passionate, loyal, and questioning of national perception in college football. Being ranked in “The Bottom 5” likely won’t sit well, but what is the expectation for Year 1 of the second Scott Frost era?
Losing RJ Harvey stings no matter how many portal players shape the starting lineup (projected to be 15). They also have to go into Manhattan, Lubbock, Waco, Provo, and Cincinnati and secure a result to finish above .500. UCF added some stellar defensive players, but this could be another tough year.
For the Arizona Wildcats, replacing Tetairoa McMillan will be no mean feat after his departure for the NFL. His relationship with Noah Fifita gave the program an excellent QB/WR duo, but that resulted in just two Big 12 wins a year ago. Luke Wysong and Kris Hutson are great additions, but the offense might be best served through former Texas State standout Ismail Mahdi.
Leading sack artist Tre Smith returns to a defense that allowed 31.8 points per game last fall and lost many of its most talented playmakers. That doesn’t bode well as they prepare for a schedule that features four teams (Kansas State, Iowa State, BYU, Arizona State) with a preseason top-25 ranking.
Willie Fritz has only ever had two successive losing seasons once in his entire coaching career, which should be music to Houston Cougars fans after a brutal 2024 campaign.
The program loaded up to rectify a dismal offense that averaged just 14.0 points per game, with Dean Connors a particularly important portal grab after logging successive 1,000+ scrimmage-yard seasons. The bad news for Cougars fans, Fritz’s last two successive losing seasons came in Year 1 and 2 at Tulane. The turnaround might not come until 2026.
Mike Gundy registered his first losing season since becoming the Oklahoma State Cowboys head coach in 2024, breaking an unbelievable streak of success. As the program faces multiple questions moving into 2025, the bitter taste of defeat might linger a little longer for the Big 12 program.
There’s uncertainty at the QB position, a lack of OL continuity, and a schedule that features a national title frontrunner in out-of-conference play and a run-in that would test almost every program in the country. They currently have the third-longest odds to win the Big 12, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
2025 Big 12 Football Schedule, Week 0
- Iowa State 14, Kansas State 30
2025 Big 12 Football Schedule, Week 3
2025 Big 12 Football Schedule, Week 4
- Arizona State 33, Baylor 17
- West Virginia 38, Kansas 27
- Texas Tech 14, Utah 31
2025 Big 12 Football Schedule, Week 5
- TCU 37, Arizona State 27
- BYU 18, Colorado 30
- Arizona 17, Iowa State 28
- Cincinnati 23, Kansas 33
- UCF 40, Kansas State 27
- Baylor 33, Oklahoma State 15
- Utah 40, West Virginia 20
2025 Big 12 Football Schedule, Week 6
- West Virginia 21, BYU 34
- Oklahoma State 38, Arizona 17
- Kansas State 13, Baylor 31
- Iowa State 24, Cincinnati 10
- Texas Tech 35, Houston 17
- Colorado 30, TCU 16
- Kansas 37, UCF 24
2025 Big 12 Football Schedule, Week 7
- BYU 34, Arizona 24
- UCF 27, Cincinnati 40
- Iowa State 24, Colorado 38
- TCU 17, Kansas State 34
- Houston 37, Oklahoma State 27
- Kansas 24, Texas Tech 17
- Arizona State 35, Utah 21
2025 Big 12 Football Schedule, Week 8
- Texas Tech 27, Arizona State 40
- Utah 21, BYU 10
- Arizona 30, Houston 17
- Cincinnati 30, Oklahoma State 10
- Baylor 10, TCU 31
- West Virginia 31, UCF 21
2025 Big 12 Football Schedule, Week 9
- Houston 17, Arizona State 33
- Baylor 34, Cincinnati 21
- BYU 36, Iowa State 24
- Kansas State 14, Kansas 33
- Oklahoma State 14, Texas Tech 35
- Colorado 20, Utah 31
- TCU 40, West Virginia 21
2025 Big 12 Football Schedule, Week 10
- UCF 24, Baylor 37
- Arizona 10, Colorado 24
- West Virginia 21, Houston 33
- Arizona State 10, Iowa State 24
- Oklahoma State 10, Kansas 21
- Texas Tech 27, Kansas State 17
- Cincinnati 36, Utah 23
2025 Big 12 Football Schedule, Week 11
- Houston 14, UCF 30
- Kansas 27, Arizona 37
- Iowa State 24, TCU 13
- BYU 38, Texas Tech 31
- Colorado 39, West Virginia 24
2025 Big 12 Football Schedule, Week 12
- West Virginia 17, Arizona State 37
- Utah 34, Baylor 23
- TCU 21, BYU 35
- Arizona 17, Cincinnati 34
- Kansas State 30, Oklahoma State 40
- UCF 24, Texas Tech 40
2025 Big 12 Football Schedule, Week 13
- Baylor 28, Arizona 14
- BYU 33, Cincinnati 17
- Arizona State 27, Colorado 17
- TCU 21, Houston 10
- Kansas 17, Iowa State 25
- Oklahoma State 35, UCF 21
- Kansas State 37, Utah 21
2025 Big 12 Football Schedule, Week 14
- Arizona 40, Arizona State 21
- Utah 24, Kansas 13
- Houston 23, Baylor 13
- UCF 37, BYU 23
- Colorado 13, Kansas State 30
- Iowa State 24, Oklahoma State 14
- Cincinnati 14, TCU 28
- Texas Tech 40, West Virginia 21
