With conference media days starting shortly across the country, the 2025 college football campaign is rapidly approaching. There might not have been a snap, pass, tackle, or field goal attempt yet, but that doesn’t stop fans from discussing the postseason.
In our first edition of the 2025-2026 college football bowl projections, we break down a potential College Football Playoff bracket and possible bowl matchups for every game.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 12 Navy Midshipmen vs. No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes
- No. 11 Utah Utes vs. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
- No. 10 SMU Mustangs vs. No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks
- No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 8 LSU Tigers
With quarterback Blake Horvath and a host of other starters returning, it’s hard to look past the Navy Midshipmen as the Group of Five champion to reach the College Football Playoff.
The AAC outfit has played five previous games with the Ohio State Buckeyes, all resulting in defeat. Brian Newberry’s team won’t be a pushover, but Ryan Day’s Buckeyes should continue that trend.
After a disappointing first season in the Big 12, the Utah Utes are well-positioned to challenge for a conference title. They return the key components of a defense that had the 15th highest grade in the country last fall (85.53, B) according to PFSN’s College Defense+ metric.
Meanwhile, the offseason acquisition of offensive coordinator Jason Beck and quarterback Devon Dampier should overhaul a lacklustre 2024 offense.
Our college football bowl projections pit them against a Penn State team that should be considered one of the best in the nation after bringing back quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, while adding a ton of wide receiver talent from the portal.
The defense lost some parts, but they’re solid enough to thwart the Utes in this matchup.
For the second successive season, the SMU Mustangs are set to play second fiddle to the Clemson Tigers in the ACC but still earn a College Football Playoff berth. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has the tools to pick apart most defenses. If R.J. Maryland recovers from his season-ending injury last year, those two make a dangerous combination to attempt to contain in 2025.
A clash between the Mustangs and South Carolina Gamecocks, as projected by our first college football bowl projections, would pit two of the sport’s premier passers, as LaNorris Sellers enters the season among the Heisman Trophy favorites.
With two explosive offenses, this matchup could come down to defense, with Dylan Stewart leading a Gamecocks unit with a slight edge.
The LSU Tigers and Ole Miss Rebels will face off on September 27 in SEC play, but like last season with Oregon and Ohio State, there’s the potential for a postseason rematch of a conference clash.
Our SEC season projections give the Rebels the advantage in that clash, but with the first round of the College Football Playoff seeing games on the campus of the higher-ranked teams, LSU would welcome Lane Kiffin’s team to Death Valley.
What would likely prove to be a night game should further enhance LSU’s advantage. While Ole Miss enters the year having made great strides defensively last fall, question marks are hanging over their offense for 2025.
Right now, with not a deal of tape to go off, it would be a foolish man who bet on Garrett Nussmeier not out-dueling Austin Simmons in the postseason.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Cotton Bowl: No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes
- Orange Bowl: No. 1 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 8 LSU Tigers
- Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks
- Rose Bowl: No. 3 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
The Rose Bowl plays host to a Big Ten season rematch, with the Oregon Ducks facing Penn State in University Park in late September. We used the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor to simulate the entire Big Ten campaign, and the Ducks were a significant winner.
Beating the same team twice in a season is difficult, as Oregon experienced last fall, but the Ducks can overcome that obstacle.
Although Oregon lost the experienced Dillon Gabriel at quarterback and will roll with Dante Moore this fall, the program’s success will be tied to the ground game this year. An impressive offensive line and the talents of former Tulane Green Wave running back should see Dan Lanning’s team trample teams on the ground and lean on a stellar defense.
The Sugar Bowl projects to be a potential SEC Championship Game rematch. South Carolina and the Texas Longhorns look to have the most clear pathway to the conference title game, and after the Gamecocks took care of SMU in the first round of our college football bowl projections, they’re set for a battle in the Bayou.
But which team should advance?
Texas is currently the second-favorite to win the national championship, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Several analysts have hyped the Longhorns due to the presence of Arch Manning under center and their deeply talented running back room.
Yet, their ultimate success in 2025 will be because of one of the best defenses in the country.
The Longhorns had the second-highest graded defense in the country last fall (92.18, A-), and enough of that unit returns this fall. Colin Simmons and Anthony Hill Jr. were crucial cogs for Texas last fall, and their best football might even be ahead of them (which is mindblowing).
South Carolina is talented on both sides of the ball, but this might be a bridge too far for them.
The Orange Bowl brings together two of the best quarterbacks in the country as Nussmeier and LSU take on Cade Klubnik and Clemson in a clash of Tigers in the heart of South Florida.
There is a reason why Clemson is shown as the No. 1-seeded team in our college football bowl projections. Dabo Swinney’s Tigers might have the best roster, top to bottom, in the country. This is a throwback team to the Clemson of earlier in his tenure, where they were powered by a talented offense but built on the foundations of rock-solid defense.
T.J. Parker, Peter Woods, DeMonte Capehart, and Will Heldt are the new Power Rangers. Sammy Brown is a true sophomore with a claim to being one of the top linebackers in the country. I’ve said it before, but I’m all for recycling, so I’ll say it again: Avieon Terrell is more than a nostalgic family name. He’s a legitimate CB1. LSU is good, but Clemson might be the very best in 2025.
Finally, the Cotton Bowl. Our bowl projections bring the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship Game back to life as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on Ohio State once more. Could there be a reversal of fortunes for Marcus Freeman’s team this time around, or will history simply repeat itself?
Of the four games here, this has the potential to be the closest. Both programs will start young, inexperienced quarterbacks in 2025. Yet, both return key components of the teams that came to blows in late January.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 3 Oregon Ducks
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes
Clemson vs. Ohio State has been the matchup for the Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, and Orange Bowl in the past 11 years, and according to our college football bowl projections, they could add the Peach Bowl to the list of former New Year’s Six bowls in 2025.
The Tigers have a 4-1 winning record (3-1 in the postseason) over the Buckeyes, and the advantage in this clash.
At this early part of the 2025 preseason, if you asked me which team had the better quarterback, offensive line, and defensive line, the answer would be categorical: Clemson.
PREDICT YOUR OWN 12-TEAM CFP FIELD WITH OUR PLAYOFF PREDICTOR
The Tigers should win a game like this in the trenches, possibly even comfortably. Ohio State’s wide receiver trio could cause problems, but Clemson has an extremely talented unit of its own.
And for the Fiesta Bowl, Texas and Oregon haven’t met for over a decade, but the Ducks are on a two-game winning streak against the Longhorns. This game is a little more complicated to project than the Peach Bowl.
The Longhorns lost the heart of their defensive front, which could make them susceptible to the Oregon ground game. Meanwhile, losing both offensive tackles to the NFL is suboptimal when facing Matayo Uiagalelei down after down. Yet, there’s enough talent on the Texas defense to give them an advantage if Oregon struggles to tame the Longhorns’ ground game.
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 2 Texas
There is something fitting about a sea of orange in Hard Rock Stadium as our college football bowl projections see the top two teams in the country come together to play for a national title.
Analysts and fans alike were worried that an expanding playoff format would dilute the value of the competition, but at this moment, I don’t think there could be a better matchup.
Two dominant, destructive, and downright nasty defenses. Two offenses packed with playmakers. Two of the top head coaches in the country. Plugging those prompts into an AI of your choosing would likely throw out this battle. But who would win?
Although Texas graded higher in both PFSN Offense+ and Defense+ last season, the development of a young Clemson defense into one of the best in the country should be a significant factor in this game.
While the Longhorns face a strong Georgia Bulldogs and Oklahoma Sooners defense this year in conference play, this will be a unit unlike any other Arch Manning will face in his first year as a starter.
With a more experienced quarterback at the top of his development arc, Clemson could land its first national title since 2018. That’s the ceiling for this Tigers team.
Projections for the Remaining 2025 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
North Carolina Central vs Jackson State
LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk
Boise State vs California
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Louisiana vs Miami (OH)
Cure Bowl
Old Dominion vs. Florida Atlantic
68 Ventures Bowl
Buffalo vs. Arkansas State
Myrtle Beach Bowl
FIU vs. James Madison
Gasparilla Bowl
USF vs. Virginia
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
UNLV vs. Toledo
Boca Raton Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Southern Miss
New Orleans Bowl
Georgia Southern vs. Liberty
Frisco Bowl
San Jose State vs. Texas State
Hawaii Bowl
Hawai’i vs. UTEP
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Eastern Michigan vs. Oklahoma
Rate Bowl
Baylor vs. Maryland
First Responder Bowl
UTSA vs. Florida State
Military Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. East Carolina
Pinstripe Bowl
Duke vs. Michigan
Fenway Bowl
Boston College vs. Memphis
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Syracuse vs. Iowa State
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Fresno State vs. Western Michigan
New Mexico Bowl
Colorado State vs. New Mexico State
Gator Bowl
North Carolina vs. Missouri
Texas Bowl
Kansas vs. Georgia
Birmingham Bowl
Tulane vs. Mississippi State
Independence Bowl
TCU vs. NC State
Music City Bowl
Iowa vs. Texas A&M
Alamo Bowl
BYU vs. Arizona State
ReliaQuest Bowl
Minnesota vs. Tennessee
Sun Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Washington
Citrus Bowl
Illinois vs. Alabama
Las Vegas Bowl
USC vs. Indiana
Armed Forces Bowl
Army vs. Kansas State
Liberty Bowl
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Louisville vs. Florida
Holiday Bowl
Miami (FL) vs. Colorado
Bahamas Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. Ohio
