The fantasy baseball landscape has shifted dramatically around San Diego Padres infielder Luis Arráez, with 84.62% of managers trading away the former batting champion, according to the most recent data from PFSN’s MLB Trade Analyzer. A player once considered a reliable batting average source has become a cautionary tale about one-dimensional production in today’s power-heavy fantasy environment. The numbers tell a stark story of decline that extends far beyond surface-level statistics.
Luis Arráez’s Batting Average Mirage
Arráez’s fall from grace represents one of the most dramatic position player collapses in recent fantasy memory. After capturing his third consecutive batting title in 2024 with a .314 average that led all of Major League Baseball, the versatile infielder has stumbled to a concerning .279 mark through the first half of 2025. This 35-point drop represents more than statistical noise; it signals a fundamental shift in his offensive profile with fantasy managers scrambling for alternatives.
The regression becomes even more troubling when considering Arráez’s historical consistency. Throughout his career, he built his reputation as a contact specialist who could be counted on for a steady stream of hits. His ability to put the ball in play at an elite level made him a valuable commodity in leagues where batting average carries significant weight. However, that reliability has evaporated, leaving managers with a player who no longer excels in his primary skill.
What makes this decline particularly damaging is the lack of compensating factors elsewhere in his statistical profile. While many players can weather batting average struggles by contributing power numbers or driving in runs, Arráez offers no such safety net. His four home runs through July represent a pace that would barely reach double digits over a full season, making him virtually irrelevant in the power categories that dominate modern fantasy scoring.
Arráez’s Advanced Metrics Paint a Grim Picture
The underlying data reveals why fantasy managers are abandoning Arráez in droves. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate have plummeted to five-year lows, placing him among the weakest contact hitters in baseball. These metrics serve as leading indicators of future performance, suggesting that his current struggles may persist rather than represent a temporary slump.
The hard-hit rate, which measures the percentage of batted balls with exit velocities of 95 mph or higher, has become increasingly predictive of offensive success. When a player’s hard-hit rate drops significantly, it typically indicates declining bat speed, poor pitch recognition, or mechanical issues preventing solid contact. For Arráez, ranking in the bottom percentiles of all MLB hitters in this category represents a red flag that extends beyond simple bad luck.
START TRADING: Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer
The exit velocity decline compounds these concerns by indicating that even when Arráez makes contact, he’s generating less authority on his swings. This combination of factors creates a perfect storm for continued offensive struggles, as softer contact typically results in more outs and fewer extra-base hits. Managers who have held onto Arráez, hoping for a turnaround, are instead witnessing the potential end of his relevance as a fantasy asset.
Positional Value Concerns
Despite his first and second base eligibility, Arráez ranks outside the top 15 in fantasy value at either position. This positional flexibility once represented a significant advantage, allowing managers to plug him into lineups based on matchups or injury situations. However, that versatility becomes meaningless when a player fails to provide top-tier production at multiple positions.
The depth of the first and second bases in today’s game makes Arráez’s limited production even more problematic. Power-hitting first and dynamic second basemen are readily available on waiver wires and through trades, offering managers superior alternatives who contribute across multiple categories. Arraez’s one-category contribution model simply cannot compete in this environment.
Furthermore, his RBI production has remained stagnant, limiting his ability to contribute in counting statistics beyond hits. Modern fantasy baseball rewards players who can impact multiple statistical categories, making specialists like Arráez obsolete. The 84.62% trade-out rate reflects this reality, as managers recognize that roster spots are too valuable to waste on players with narrow skill sets.
The data suggests that Arráez’s fantasy relevance may be permanently diminished, representing a cautionary tale about the importance of diversified statistical production in contemporary fantasy baseball.
Luis Arraez went 8-for-13 in the Padres’ three-game series against the Rangers.
Arraez is now batting .344 in his last 21 games. pic.twitter.com/zVLRs2FObO
— Sammy Levitt (@SammyLev) July 7, 2025
However, there’s a glimmer of hope for those who did hold on, as Arráez has regained his focus in July, going 8-for-13 in the Padres series against the Texas Rangers. Padres pre- and postgame radio host Sammy Levitt posted on X, “Arráez is now batting .344 in his last 21 games.”
His average has now climbed to .292 as of July 8, just shy of the team lead held by Manny Machado at .293. Will he be able to keep this hot streak alive, or was the troubling start to the 2025 season a glimpse of what’s to come down the stretch?
