The fantasy football community has done a complete 180 on Rashee Rice, and the numbers show that shift is well deserved. What started as cautious optimism in May has become full-blown hype, with Rice quickly becoming one of the most talked-about players heading into 2025.
The Great Rashee Rice Fantasy Awakening
No player in the PFSN database has seen a more dramatic narrative shift than Rice since May. His acquisition rate among users has skyrocketed from 43.1% in May to 50.1% in June, before exploding to 74.3% in early July as clarity around his Week 1 availability has emerged.
This isn’t just hype. The market recognizes that Rice is one of the best value picks in fantasy football.
Trade interest has grown with increased confidence in Rice’s health and role in the Chiefs’ offense. After missing most of 2024 with a season-ending LCL injury, Rice fully participated in voluntary OTAs and mandatory minicamp. Head coach Andy Reid said he’ll be “ready to go” for training camp. Patrick Mahomes also noted that Rice has been working “without limitations” this offseason.
Rashee Rice looks on track and ready to make noise in 2025. @tuckerdfranklin · @jbbrisco. pic.twitter.com/example
— KC Sports Network (@KCSportsNetwork) June 10, 2025
The Elite Production Profile
Rice has demonstrated production that places him among the NFL’s elite receivers when healthy. Extending his last nine healthy games reveals a staggering pace: 127 catches for 1,524 yards. This projection showcases volume and consistent, high-floor production that makes players fantasy cornerstones.
Even more impressive is Rice’s efficiency. He’s produced 19.6% over expectation and averages 2.56 yards per route run. Those numbers are nearly identical to Justin Jefferson’s start (+20.5% and 2.64), pointing to Rice having a similar long-term ceiling.
Rice’s 2024 start before injury provided a glimpse of this ceiling. In his first three games, he caught 24 passes for 288 yards and two touchdowns, leading the league in catches and ranking second in yards. His 64.9 PPR points over that stretch were second among all receivers.
The Travis Kelce Succession Plan
The most significant development in Rice’s fantasy outlook is his emergence as Mahomes’ primary target, effectively replacing an aging Travis Kelce as the offense’s focal point. This transition became evident during Rice’s healthy games, where he commanded a 36% target share in his three full games before injury.
Mahomes has developed an elite passing grade when targeting Rice, indicating both volume and efficiency in their connection. This quarterback-receiver chemistry represents the foundation of elite fantasy production, particularly in an Andy Reid offense that has historically supported multiple high-end fantasy assets.
The Chiefs’ offensive philosophy has shifted toward featuring Rice as the primary receiving threat. His role expansion coincided with Kelce’s declining target share and efficiency, suggesting a natural succession rather than a temporary circumstance. At 25 years old, Rice represents the future of this passing attack while Kelce, now 36, transitions into a complementary role.
The PPR Goldmine
Rice’s low average depth of target (aDOT) of 5.2 yards might concern some fantasy managers, but it represents a significant advantage in PPR formats. His short-area targets, paired with 8.4 yards after catch per reception, create steady, high-upside scoring.
The beauty of Rice’s target profile lies in its sustainability. Over 75% of his targets come either behind the line of scrimmage or within nine yards of it, creating high-percentage opportunities that translate to reliable fantasy points per game production. These “layup” targets provide an incredibly high floor while his YAC ability maintains ceiling potential.
Rookie Rashee Rice had the best game of his young career in Week 12:
8 catches
107 receiving yards
39-yard receiving TD pic.twitter.com/8vcu2litEf— NFL (@NFL) November 29, 2023
Rice’s 78.6% catch rate demonstrates his reliability on these short-area targets, while his 11.9 yards per reception shows his ability to maximize every opportunity. This combination of volume, efficiency, and big-play ability creates the weekly consistency that wins fantasy championships.
The Xavier Worthy Factor
Xavier Worthy’s emergence in late 2024 raised questions about Rice’s target share, but the two receivers bring different skill sets. Worthy thrives as a deep threat. Rice wins underneath. That balance allows both to produce in the same offense.
Reid’s offenses have supported multiple fantasy weapons before. In the Tyreek Hill era, both Hill and Kelce routinely topped 290 PPR points. The same split could work with Rice as the short-yardage option and Worthy stretching the field.
Rice’s established chemistry with Mahomes and proven ability to win in crucial situations give him the edge for consistent targets. His 30.3% first-read share during his healthy stretch in 2023 indicates Mahomes’ trust in high-leverage moments. This type of quarterback confidence typically translates to sustained target volume regardless of surrounding talent.
The 2018 Patrick Mahomes Ceiling
The most tantalizing aspect of Rice’s 2025 outlook is that peak Mahomes could resurface any moment. The 2018 version of Mahomes, who threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns, created fantasy legends out of multiple receivers. If that quarterback emerges again, every Chiefs pass catcher would benefit exponentially.
Recent reports suggest Mahomes is motivated to return to his explosive form after a relatively conservative 2024 campaign. Rice’s skill set as a YAC specialist perfectly complements Mahomes’ ability to create easy completions that turn into explosive plays. The elite quarterback play and Rice’s after-the-catch ability could produce historic fantasy numbers.
The Chiefs’ commitment to Rice is evident in their offseason moves and public statements. Reid’s praise of Rice’s work ethic and Mahomes’ confidence in their connection suggests the organization views him as a cornerstone piece rather than a complementary player. This organizational investment typically translates to sustained opportunity and usage.
The Dynasty Goldmine
Rice represents one of the most compelling buy opportunities for dynasty managers at the receiver position. His current trade value hasn’t fully adjusted to his elite production profile or role within the Chiefs’ offense. Fantasy managers considering moves involving Rice should utilize the PFSN Trade Analyzer to evaluate fair compensation, though his rising acquisition rate suggests the window for discounted trades is rapidly closing.
Rice is only 25 and under contract through 2027, giving him the long-term stability that dynasty managers love. He’s already proven he can produce and do it efficiently in a top-tier offense.
MORE: Travis Kelce Makes Feelings Clear on Potentially Playing for Any Other Team Than the Kansas City Chiefs
The injury concerns that once clouded Rice’s outlook have largely dissipated with his full participation in team activities and positive reports from coaches and teammates. His recovery timeline and current health status suggest he’ll enter 2025 at full strength, ready to build on his impressive start to his NFL career.
Rice’s proven production, elite efficiency, and expanding role in one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses create a perfect storm for fantasy success. The market has finally recognized his true value, but savvy managers who act quickly can still capitalize on one of 2025’s most compelling breakout candidates.
