The fantasy football community’s excitement for Caleb Williams has been cooling all summer, as managers take a more realistic look at his rookie struggles and uncertain outlook. While the Chicago Bears quarterback showed flashes of promise, concerns about his development have fantasy managers rethinking their early faith in the former No. 1 overall pick.
The Caleb Williams Market Momentum Shifts
Williams’ declining trade interest tells the story of how fantasy managers have adjusted expectations. His acquisition rate in PFSN user deals dropped from 62.4% in May to just 46.1% since, marking a sharp decline for a player many thought would break out in Year 2.
The initial optimism surrounding Williams’ potential breakout has given way to realistic concerns about his ceiling in an offense that struggled mightily during his rookie campaign. Fantasy managers eager to acquire him earlier in the summer are now having second thoughts as the reality of his situation becomes clearer.
The Disappointing Rookie Reality
Williams’ rookie season was undeniably disappointing for a player selected with the first overall pick. Despite stepping into what some considered the best situation for a rookie quarterback in NFL history, Williams averaged just 15.3 fantasy points per game, barely qualifying as a QB2 in most fantasy formats.
That said, his stats did show his upside. Williams became just the fourth rookie in the past 20 years to throw for 3,500 yards and run for 450 yards, joining Jayden Daniels, Kyler Murray, and Cam Newton. His 3,541 passing yards and 489 rushing yards highlighted his dual-threat talent, but his efficiency told a different story.
Williams’ -69.4 quarterback EPA ranked 35th in the league, while his 59.6 passer rating on throws of 20-plus air yards highlighted his struggles with downfield accuracy. The league-high 68 sacks he absorbed, combined with 260 quarterback pressures, painted a picture of a rookie overwhelmed by the speed and complexity of the NFL game.
The Chicago Bears Coaching Catastrophe
Coaching instability didn’t help. The Bears fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron after nine games, reportedly due to a poor relationship with Williams, including not watching film together. That midseason change made things tougher for a rookie still adjusting to the league.
The coaching chaos continued when head coach Matt Eberflus was dismissed in November, creating another layer of instability during Williams’ developmental year. These staff changes and the pressure he faced behind a struggling offensive line created an environment where even the most talented rookie would struggle to succeed.
There was a bright spot, though. Williams improved under pressure in the second half of the season, completing 47.7% of his throws in those situations with a 74 passer rating. That was a big jump from his early-season marks of 39% and 54.1, showing growth despite the chaos.
CALEB WILLIAMS. WHAT A THROW
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/YBk24AqRhF— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 24, 2024
The Positive Indicators
Despite the disappointment, Williams demonstrated several encouraging traits, suggesting his struggles were more situational than talent-related. His ball security was exemplary for a rookie, throwing just six interceptions while attempting 562 passes. This 1.1% interception rate ranked among the best in the league and showed the decision-making ability that made him a top prospect.
He also showed flashes of the elite play that made him the consensus No. 1 pick. He posted five games with 20+ fantasy points, including a dominant Week 12 performance where he threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns for 26.9 fantasy points. His four-touchdown performance against Jacksonville in Week 6 demonstrated his ceiling potential when everything clicked.
From Week 11 on, he looked like a different player. Williams ranked as a top-10 fantasy QB over that span, throwing 11 of his 20 touchdowns in his final seven games while tossing just one pick. That stretch gave managers reason to believe a breakout is still possible.
The 2025 Opportunity
The Bears’ aggressive offseason moves suggest they recognize Williams’ potential and are committed to providing him with the tools to succeed. Adding Luther Burden III in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft gives Williams another dynamic weapon, while first-round tight end Colston Loveland provides a reliable target over the middle. These additions and improvements to the offensive line should create a more favorable environment for Williams’ development.
The most significant change is new head coach Ben Johnson. Known for his work with quarterbacks in Detroit, Johnson brings a creative system that could maximize Williams’ strengths. His ability to create mismatches and design easier throws should help Williams improve in Year 2.
Johnson has spoken highly of Williams, praising his arm strength and downfield accuracy, two areas where the QB struggled as a rookie. That public vote of confidence is meaningful as the two begin working together.
Ben Johnson couldn’t hold back his smile talking about Caleb Williams.
He knows Caleb is special. This pairing needs to happen. pic.twitter.com/JMvtuv0J2L
— NFL on CBS (@NFLonCBS) December 22, 2024
The Fantasy Outlook
For fantasy managers considering Williams in 2025 drafts, the PFSN Trade Analyzer can help evaluate whether his current value aligns with realistic expectations. His declining trade interest suggests the market is adjusting to his actual ceiling rather than the inflated hopes that followed his draft selection.
The most likely scenario is that Williams will make incremental improvements in his sophomore season while still facing growing pains typical of young quarterbacks. His dual-threat ability provides a reliable floor, but the ceiling remains dependent on how quickly he adapts to Johnson’s system and improves efficiency metrics.
Projecting quarterbacks is never easy in fantasy. While Williams has the talent and now a better supporting cast, his rookie struggles remind him that development isn’t always linear. Fantasy managers should view him as a high-upside value pick, but he is not a sure breakout.
The fantasy buzz around Williams has cooled, and that’s probably a good thing. It creates a more realistic outlook for a player still finding his way.
