Match Details
Fixture: Denis Shapovalov vs Aleksander Kovacevic
Date: Jul. 20, 2025
Tournament: Los Cabos Open 2025
Round: Final
Venue: Cabo Sports Complex in Los Cabos, Baja California Sur, Mexico
Category: ATP 250
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Live telecast: Tennis Channel, Sky Sports
Denis Shapovalov vs Aleksander Kovacevic Preview
Denis Shapovalov has been in fine form at the Mifel Tennis Open in Los Cabos. After a first‑round bye, he beat Govind Nanda (6‑1, 6‑2), Tristan Schoolkate (6‑3, 6‑2), and then outplayed Adam Walton in straight sets (6‑2, 6‑2) to reach the final.
Aleksandar Kovacevic, on the other hand, had a strong run of his own. He edged Hady Habib in three sets, trounced Juan Pablo Ficovich (6‑3, 6‑1), and pulled off a major upset by defeating top seed Andrey Rublev 3‑6, 6‑4, 6‑4, marking their rematch victory after a previous win in Montpellier.
Hard court is Shapo’s bread & butter
Denis Shapovalov fired 26 winners to power past Tristan Schoolkate and reach the semifinals of the Mifel Tennis Open
Read more https://t.co/0yeFjAs3qt pic.twitter.com/1Zt0fZ1ifF
— Tennis Canada (@TennisCanada) July 18, 2025
Shapovalov’s 2025 has been highlighted by his massive ATP 500 win in Dallas in February. He defeated three top‑10 players, including Fritz, Paul, and Ruud, to claim his biggest career title so far. He’s also claimed a second title in Belgrade in 2024 and currently sits at around 33rd in the ATP rankings, with a singles record of 15–14 and one title this year.
Kovacevic, on the other hand, has steadily climbed as a late bloomer. After turning pro in 2021 and earning a finance degree, he captured six Challenger titles (two in early 2025) and reached his first ATP Tour final in Montpellier, notably beating Rublev there as well. He’s currently ranked around 76, with a 28–19 season record and two Challenger titles already in 2025.
Denis Shapovalov vs Aleksander Kovacevic Head-to-Head
Denis Shapovalov and Aleksandar Kovacevic have never faced each other on the ATP Tour, with their head‑to‑head sitting at 0–0. That makes their upcoming match effectively their first-ever professional clash.
Denis Shapovalov vs Aleksander Kovacevic Prediction
Shapovalov has depicted a strong form this season with a 7–6 outdoor record and an unbeaten 5–0 indoor streak. This brings his hard‑court win percentage to about 62.5% outdoors and 100% indoors across 21 matches. His aggressive, high‑risk baseline game combined with powerful forehands, a dynamic one‑handed backhand, and frequent serve‑and‑volley works well on faster surfaces.
Kovacevic, on the other hand, has posted a 5–4 outdoor and 6–2 indoor record on hard courts this year, translating to approximately a 55.6% win rate outdoors and a 75% mark indoors. With a consistent baseline play, he offsets Shapovalov’s flair with solid shot-making under pressure.
Shapovalov holds an impressive serving arsenal, around 100 aces (6.25 per match) on hard courts, a first-serve win rate near 72.3%, and standout numbers indoors, securing 12 aces per match, 77% of second serves in, and 80% of pressure points saved. His overall ATP hard‑court performance (164–124 career record) enhances his ability to hold strong on big points.
Kovacevic’s serve averages 7.9 aces per outdoor match, with a solid 76% win rate on first serves and a notably high 89.9% second‑serve percentage. However, he converts fewer break opportunities and shows some inconsistency in saving break points. His overall 2025 season stands at 26–19, with an 11–6 record on hard courts.
