The upcoming clash between Denmark’s Holger Rune (seeded No. 5) and France’s Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard promises to be a compelling encounter when they meet in the second round of the Canadian Open 2025 (now known as The National Bank Open presented by Rogers) in Toronto. Rune’s all-court coverage versus Perricard’s serve-dominated style creates an intriguing tactical battle that could set the tone for the mid-North American hard-court swing.
Can Holger Rune Overcome Perricard’s Serving Dominance?
Rune arrives in Canada fresh off a first-round bye in Washington and looking to build momentum after a brief layoff. He recently shot back into the Top 10 by capturing his first ATP 500 title at Barcelona, defeating Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets. This success carried over to his campaign at Indian Wells, where he reached the finals.
Meanwhile, Perricard defeated qualifier Shintaro Mochizuki 6-4, 6-2 in Toronto’s opening round after a disappointing first-round exit in Washington. His 2025 season record now stands at around 10-15 in singles, though his serve-first approach has shown flashes of brilliance against top competition.
Holger Rune vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Head-to-Head
Rune and Perricard have met just once in their professional careers, with the Frenchman holding a 1-0 lead in the head-to-head tally.
“Toronto feeling great here @NBOtoronto“
Holger Rune via IG — Vamos pic.twitter.com/sg6en4Tipj
— Holger Rune Daily (@RuneDaily_) July 27, 2025
Their only showdown occurred in the semifinals of the Swiss Indoors in Basel. The match saw Perricard secure victory in straight sets, 7-6(6), 6-4, while striking an impressive 87% success rate on first-serve points (33/38), piling up 17 aces, and facing no break points. That dominant serving display showcased exactly the weapon Perricard brings to every match.
Match Details
- Fixture: Holger Rune vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
- Date: July 29, 2025
- Tournament: The National Bank Open presented by Rogers
- Round: Round of 64
- Venue: Sobeys Stadium in Toronto, Canada
- Category: ATP 1000
- Surface: Outdoor hard
- Live telecast: Tennis Channel, Fubo, ESPN+, Sky Sports
What Makes This Stylistic Matchup So Compelling?
Rune has a 2025 hard-court win rate of around 57%, performing better indoors than outdoors. He relies on baseline consistency and return aggression, but has struggled against big servers throughout his career. Perricard, with a 55-60% win rate on hard courts, is most effective on fast surfaces where his powerful serve can dictate play.
Perricard’s game is built around his first-strike serve and short points, a style that neutralizes return-heavy players like Rune on quick courts. Perricard leads the tour in average serve speed, regularly hitting 137-153 mph on first serves, and 140+ mph on second. He averages 19 aces per match, though his high-risk approach includes frequent double faults.
On the other side, Rune’s first-serve percentage hovers around 62%, with 72% of first-serve points won. He defends break points well but struggles against elite servers, especially those who back up pace with precision. Perricard has shown the ability to hold serve under pressure, which could prove decisive in tight moments.
This matchup favors Perricard’s serve-dominated style on Toronto’s fast courts. Rune may steal a set if he adjusts his return depth or capitalizes during Perricard’s second-serve errors. However, over three sets, Perricard’s dominant service games and ability to force tiebreaks should give him the edge.
Prediction: Perricard to win in three sets.
