In every fantasy football draft, there is a pick you either make with confidence or regret all year. In 2025, that pick is Brian Thomas Jr., and according to the PFSN Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator, smart players are not waiting long. Thomas is going in the first round, often ahead of the average draft position. It is time for others to catch on. They just might not be aggressive enough.
Brian Thomas Jr.’s Rookie Breakout That Shattered Expectations
Let’s set the record straight: Thomas already ended all doubts last season by crushing every challenge the league threw at him. He logged six straight games with double-digit targets to finish his rookie year, matching Amon-Ra St. Brown for the longest streak by a rookie this millennium.
Remember what St. Brown did next? He leveled up all his numbers, even after the Lions spent a first-round pick on his new running mate. Jacksonville Jaguars followed the script, drafting Travis Hunter, but don’t overthink it. The Jaguars just want more weapons, not a new alpha.
How did Thomas do it with the deck stacked against him? The Jaguars were a coaching disaster, 26th in scoring, with Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones serving up a buffet of off-target prayers and checkdowns. Didn’t matter. Thomas still earned 129 targets, tallied seven games of 10+ looks, and finished third in the NFL in points per game over the last seven weeks. His 16.7 fantasy points per game placed him firmly among the top 12 receivers.
Even when Mac Jones, the backup everyone panicked about, took over, Thomas didn’t miss a beat. With Jones under center, Thomas averaged 21.5 PPR points over his final seven games, trailing only Puka Nacua and Ja’Marr Chase. How’s that for “QB-proof”?
Mac Jones escapes and finds Brian Thomas for a big gain!
: #JAXvsTEN on FOX http://atnfl.co/watch
— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2024
Jacksonville Jaguars’ Red Zone Alpha
Here’s what sets Thomas apart. Despite their bottom-barrel scoring offense ranking 26th in points scored, Thomas led all rookies in end zone targets and was frequently the first look inside the 20, even when the offense sputtered. That’s elite role insulation. Only Amon-Ra St. Brown, Travis Kelce, and Justin Jefferson saw more looks where fantasy points are made.
With Doug Pederson gone and Liam Coen calling the shots, the offense is primed for a leap. Look at what Coen did with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin last season in Tampa. He didn’t dilute target share; he boosted it, scheming easy looks and funneling volume to his best playmakers. The Jaguars’ offense under Coen will center on its WR1 similarly. Thomas is set for 150+ targets on a team that is actively trying to create more scoring opportunities.
Written in the Stars: Year 2 Explosion Incoming
Still clinging to concerns about Travis Hunter cutting into Thomas’s volume? Don’t bother. Sure, Hunter is a freak talent, but the Jaguars are working him both ways with limited early offensive reps. He’ll draw defensive attention, not fantasy points away from Thomas. With outgoing veterans vacating 150+ targets, there’s plenty for Hunter that won’t come at Thomas’ expense.
The talk of the offseason is Coen’s adaptable, vertical-friendly system, a breath of fresh air for a team whose fatal flaw was conservative, predictable play-calling. Mayfield looked like an MVP at times under Coen, and Thomas is a more explosive, versatile weapon than anyone Coen had in Tampa. Expect jet sweeps, more routes from the slot, deep shots, and designed plays to get Thomas the ball wherever he can be lethal.
The fantasy industry may be slow to catch on, but PFSN mock drafters have it right. You should take Thomas in the late first round and be happy he fell to you. He is 6 feet, 4 inches tall, weighs 205 pounds, and has excellent athleticism. He has a proven track record in the red zone and has shown he can be a top player against good defense and with bad quarterback play. He is the type of player you draft early and never regret.
