Next Friday, the curtain will be raised on the sporting world’s greatest soap opera, as the 2025-26 Premier League season gets underway at the home of the reigning champions.
Anfield plays host to the campaign’s inaugural game, as Liverpool look to get their title defence off to a strong start against Andoni Iraola’s plucky Bournemouth.
The Reds have bolstered their ranks considerably this summer and will be eager to consolidate their position as England’s top dogs, but Arsenal, Manchester City, and World Champions Chelsea, who’ve also strengthened, will be seeking to knock them off their perch.
Both Manchester United and Tottenham will be determined to set the record straight and get back to top six football following disastrous campaigns last time round, with both sides recording their lowest Premier League positions ever (15th and 17th respectively).
Aston Villa and Newcastle will also aim to be in hot pursuit of those coveted Champions League spots as they attempt to disrupt the traditional “top six”.
New boys Burnley, Leeds, and Sunderland will be hoping to avoid the same fate as the six previous newly promoted sides, who were all relegated following just one season in the top flight.
Here, we take a deep dive into Opta’s predictive model to find out who they think will be the winners and losers of this season’s Premier League.
Liverpool’s title to lose
It’s been a monumentally tough period for those of a Liverpool persuasion. The devastating loss of Diogo Jota in such tragic circumstances stunned the footballing world. Yet, if history has taught us anything, it’s that the six-time European champions face adversity head-on.
After Arne Slot became just the fifth manager to win the Premier League in his debut season and the first Dutchman to ever mastermind the title, the former Feyenoord manager has wasted no time this summer in shaping the squad in his image.
The Reds have splashed a whopping £295.5m in this transfer window, and that spending spree doesn’t appear to be slowing down any time soon, having Alexander Isak set in their sights, seeing an initial bid of £110m rejected by Newcastle.
The additions of Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike, Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez, and Giorgi Mamardashvili have seen Liverpool assemble a squad rich in quality and depth, offsetting the voids left by Trent Alexander-Arnold, Luis Diaz, and Jarrell Quansah.
Despite this transitional period, the supercomputer predicts them to retain their Premier League crown, giving them a 28.5% chance of topping the table come the final day of the season.
With Manchester City champing at the bit to get back on track after their first trophyless season since Pep Guardiola took to the helm in 2016, Liverpool will be wary. The supercomputer has the Cityzens topping the table in 18.8% of its simulations.
However, it is Arsenal that Slot’s Liverpool should fear most according to the predictive model, with the Gunners fancied to win the title on 24.3% of its simulations. Mikel Arteta will be the man to lead Arsenal into their milestone 100th consecutive season in the top flight, the longest ongoing run of any English side.
More disappointment at United and Spurs?
While the new 2025-26 Premier League symbolises fresh beginnings, the supercomputer has not painted a particularly pretty picture for two of English football’s biggest names.
United are predicted to finish anywhere between mid-table and the lower top half, with only a 0.6% chance of finishing first and just 1.4% for a top four spot, which is in spite of Ruben Amorim overseeing a full pre-season campaign.
Last season’s Europa League runners-up found the back of the net on just 44 occasions last season, the second-lowest tally outside the bottom three.
Having lost a club-record number of games (18) in the Premier League in 2024-25, the supercomputer believes Amorim’s side are likely to finish in 12th or 13th place next term, a damning indictment of their continued struggles.
Although Tottenham ended their 17-year trophy drought with a Europa League final win last season, Ange Postecoglou was unsentimentally sacked following an abysmal league run.
While Spurs’ will have renewed hopes ahead of a season that will witness the return of Champions League football to the Tottenham Hotspur stadium, they have been forecasted to finish 14th. When it rains, it pours in.
In what will be the North Londoners’ first season without hero Son Heung-min in 10 years, the data suggests a 0.3% chance of winning the league and just a 5.8% chance for a Champions League return. The North London side will be keen to fill the void left by the South Korean, who netted 173 goals in 545 appearances for the club.
Despite the supercomputer’s prediction, Spurs will be hoping to avoid another season of inconsistency and underachievement, and under the dexterous hand of new manager Thomas Frank that is certainly possible.
Elsewhere, Fulham, West Ham, and Wolves are all expected to battle it out with the promoted sides in a potential relegation scrap as the three occupy 15th, 16th, and 17th respectively, while Everton are backed to finish lower mid-table.
Another top four battle for Aston Villa, Chelsea, and Newcastle
Fresh off the back of an unexpected Club World Cup triumph, the Blues are backed by the model with an over 40% chance of finishing in the top four. The Blues’ most likely final position is 4th (10.6%), but their title aspirations haven’t been completely written off, with an outside shot of 8.4%. With a well-rounded squad and greater stability, Chelsea are expected to return to Europe’s top table and could sneak into the title race if the stars align.
After cruelly missing out on a top four finish on the final day, Unai Emery’s side will be desperate to rally and mount another top four push. The Villans are given over a 30% shot at finishing in the top four, but are touted by the supercomputer to end their campaign in fifth.
As the Alexander Isak saga rolls on unresolved, and the Magpies transfer woes continue, it’s fair to say that Newcastle are heading into the season under somewhat of a grey cloud. However, Opta’s predictive model has other ideas for the Toon, who’s top four hopes are very much alive and kicking with 29.9% probability of a Champions League finish. Their most frequent outcomes land between 5th and 7th, with 6th being the most likely (9.1%).
Meanwhile, Crystal Palace, Brighton, Bournemouth, Brentford and Nottingham Forest have all been tipped to finish in the top half.
A relegation-destined season for the newly promoted sides
The competitive landscape for newly promoted clubs has not made for pleasant viewing over the last two seasons, with all six of those clubs failing to avoid the drop at the first time of asking.
Sunderland return to the top flight riding the crest of a wave, after an eight-year hiatus. Yet, the supercomputer has the Black Cats staring down the barrel of an immediate drop. The model gives them a massive 34.1% chance of finishing at the bottom, and an over 66% combined probability of finishing in the bottom three.
That said, Regis Le Bris’ side have wasted no time in bolstering their ranks with a blend of exciting young talent in Habib Diarra and seasoned Premier League experience in Granit Xhaka. The Stadium of Light residents have spent over £110m in transfer fees so far this summer, and it looks increasingly like they’re eyeing survival.
Leeds arrive back among England’s footballing elite boasting new owners in 49ers Enterprises, the venture capital group of the San Francisco 49ers.
While they are subject to improved investment, the Elland Road side face a likely relegation scrap if the predictive model is to be trusted. The supercomputer has forecast Leeds to finish in the bottom three in 48% of the simulations conducted, with their most likely final league position being 19th.
Burnley enjoyed a truly memorable promotion-winning campaign last season and were defensively irreproachable, conceding a record-breaking 16 goals all season, almost halving the current tally of 30 set by Watford.
The Clarets’ defensive solidity naturally lends itself to being a tougher proposition for Premier League teams compared to their promoted counterparts. While their probability of finishing last is lower (only 4.2%), they still hold a 45.9% chance of ending up in the bottom three.
