As autumn settles across Europe, the 2026 World Cup qualification enters a decisive phase. With just a few matchdays remaining in the group stage (to conclude in November), October’s fixtures carry real weight: several nations can move to within arm’s reach of direct qualification, while others must salvage credibility or rescue tenuous campaigns.
The pressure is distributed unevenly: some favorites are expected to coast, others must fight. There will be fixtures and storylines to watch closely.
Group E: No Yamal as Spain face Georgia and Bulgaria
Spain enters October’s doubleheader in commanding form. With two emphatic wins under their belt, La Roja lead Group E and seem poised to control the narrative.
This break, Spain face Georgia (away) and Bulgaria (home).
Georgia, often underestimated, has the capacity to cause trouble — particularly when Spain’s selection is disrupted by injuries or rotation. Indeed, defender Dean Huijsen has already been ruled out with a muscle issue, forcing Luis de la Fuente to call in the experienced Aymeric Laporte. Young sensation Lamine Yamal remains the key dynamic in attack – at just 18, he carries enormous expectation — his dribbling, pace and creativity are already essential to Spain’s forward thrust. And yet, he’s been withdrawn from the squad for these matches, with Barcelona insisting he is injured.
Bulgaria, meanwhile, is chasing respectability. Their best hope is to frustrate Spain on home turf and deny them a runaway lead. For the Bulgarians, every point matters, not only for the table but for national pride.
Group A: Germany should overcome Luxembourg and Northern Ireland
Germany has a delicate October ahead: first hosting Luxembourg, then traveling to Northern Ireland. Coach Julian Nagelsmann has emphasized the necessity of two wins to stay on course. But the road is tighter than expected.
In Group A, Slovakia leads, already making life difficult for the German campaign. Germany sits third, behind Northern Ireland on goal difference, and carries squad concerns: Antonio Rudiger and Jamal Musiala are sidelined, but Nico Schlotterbeck returns.
Kevin Schade, the Brentford winger, has been called up to the national team this month, providing fresh options on the flank.
The match in Belfast will be especially telling: Northern Ireland has made the most of tight margins so far, and home advantage may amplify pressure on Germany. A slip could hand Slovakia or Northern Ireland serious momentum.
Group F: Portugal battle Republic of Ireland and Hungary
Portuguese ambitions ride heavily on Cristiano Ronaldo, now in the final chapter of a legendary international career. His presence in the squad remains potent — not just for goals, but for psychological edge.
October sees Portugal facing Republic of Ireland and Hungary. A pair of wins could virtually guarantee direct qualification.
Ireland, though, is off to a stuttering start under Heimir Hallgrímsson, having drawn with Hungary and lost to Armenia.
For Portugal, this is not just about athletic execution: it’s a moment to assert dominance. Failure to dispatch Ireland or Hungary decisively might signal cracks in rhythm or depth, and cast shadows over their group ambitions.
Group C: Scotland takes on Greece and Belarus
Scotland navigates October with two home matches: Greece and Belarus. The Scots have ambitions to challenge Denmark, who currently share the top spot.
Greece, historically grizzled and defensively disciplined, can be tough to crack. Scotland will hope to leverage home support and pushing in attack. Belarus, meanwhile, presents a more brittle opponent — but one that has shown capacity for surprise in qualification cycles.
From a narrative standpoint, a strong Scottish run here could shake up expectations in Group C and keep Denmark from sleeping easy. For smaller nations like Belarus, even a point would serve as validation.
Group K: Serbia and Albania to rekindle politically charged rivalry as England chase early qualification
Tensions often define Serbia vs Albania — not just on the pitch but in their political and historical backdrop. Though the two sides were separated in some previous draws to avoid confrontation, here they meet in qualification.
Serbia is chasing England in the group. The Three Lions, who play Latvia this break, could capture qualification if Serbia slips in Belgrade.
Albania has motive to play spoiler and upset expectations, but from Serbia’s point of view, they must avoid the political distractions and deliver a performance grounded in discipline.
A slip here could open the door for England to clinch early, though in all honesty, it’s bound to happen sooner or later. Neither Serbia nor Albania will have much say in that. Thomas Tuchel’s team has been deadly efficient so far: unbeaten, maximum points.
If England can maintain clinical finishing and defensive solidity, this tie may represent a relatively gentle climb to qualification. But international breaks have surprises, and Latvia will strive to make it uncomfortable.
Group D: France hosts Azerbaijan and travel to Iceland
Kylian Mbappe continues to lead from the front for France. His inclusion is a non‐negotiable part of their campaign as they seek to secure their berth early.
With Aurelien Tchouameni suspended, France has gaps in midfield that must be addressed. Eduardo Camavinga returns and could be tasked with greater responsibility.
France faces Azerbaijan at home and travels to Iceland.
Azerbaijan has shown occasional resilience, while Iceland’s compactness and aerial threat make them a tricky opponent on home soil. A misstep in Reykjavik would raise eyebrows; a pair of victories would assert France’s position atop Group D with confidence.
Looking Further: Others and Wider Context
Other groups offer intriguing side narratives. For instance, Switzerland vs Slovenia, Sweden vs Kosovo (Group B) and Finland vs Lithuania (Group G) may attract less headline pressure but are vital for secondary positioning.
Teams like Croatia, Slovakia and Norway have long been flagged as nations that could clinch or fast-track their qualification this month. In a campaign where no European team has yet mathematically qualified (as of early October), the urgency in some locker rooms is already escalated.
October’s outcomes will likely redraw the playoff map: some squads may already shift mental gears to that secondary route. Nations that stumble will find their margin for error narrowing.
October 2025 is not a mere stepping stone in the World Cup journey for European countries; it is a fulcrum month. Teams that succeed may stride toward June with momentum; those that falter will carry doubts into the final weeks.
As fans, analysts and players brace for the whistle, the stories of sacrifice, redemption, youthful ambition and veteran legacy will be written in 90-minute bursts across Europe.
