Match Preview for Moldova v Italy
Needing a miracle to qualify directly for World Cup 2026, Italy travel to Chisinau to face Group I’s bottom side Moldova in their penultimate qualifier on Thursday evening.
The Azzurri are already assured of a top-two finish, but with Norway holding a strong advantage, Gennaro Gattuso’s men must hope for a perfect finish and a major slip-up elsewhere to have any chance of topping the group.
Back-to-back victories last month confirmed Italy’s place in at least the play-offs, with their 3-0 win over Israel seeing striker Mateo Retegui continue his fine form in front of goal.
Since Gattuso’s appointment in the summer, Italy have won four straight matches, scoring 16 times and conceding just once, form that has restored some belief after the disappointment of missing the last two World Cups.
Even so, overtaking Norway remains highly unlikely. The Norwegians beat Italy 3-0 earlier in the campaign and lead by three points with a far superior goal difference.
Barring an extraordinary turnaround, Italy’s focus will soon shift to ensuring they are fully prepared for the play-off stage next spring.
Moldova, meanwhile, are seeking small positives at the end of a tough qualifying campaign. Winless in their six Group I matches so far, they sit bottom of the standings but did manage to earn their first point of the campaign last month with a 1-1 draw against Estonia.
New coach Lilian Popescu, who replaced Serghei Clescenco after Moldova’s record 11-1 defeat to Norway, oversaw that draw in his first game in charge. He’ll be hoping his side can show further signs of resilience against far superior opposition on Thursday night.
Team news for Moldova v Italy
With Italy’s play-off spot already confirmed, Gennaro Gattuso is expected to rotate heavily. Midfielder Nicolo Barella is suspended, opening the door for Roma’s Bryan Cristante to feature from the start.
Moise Kean has withdrawn due to injury, with Bologna’s Nicolo Cambiaghi called up as cover, while Giacomo Raspadori remains a doubt after picking up a knock in training.
Federico Chiesa was not included due to ongoing fitness issues, though Gianluca Scamacca and Mateo Retegui are both available and could lead the line.
Defenders Alessandro Buongiorno and Samuele Ricci return to the squad, and Cagliari goalkeeper Elia Caprile has earned his first senior call-up after an impressive Serie A campaign.
For Moldova, midfielder Nichita Motpan is sidelined through injury, but experienced playmaker Artur Ionita and all-time top scorer Ion Nicolaescu are both fit and available.
Nicolaescu, who averages a goal every three internationals, will again carry the main attacking threat for the hosts.
Expected line-ups for Moldova v Italy
Moldova: Avram; Forov, Craciun, Baboglo, Platica, Reabciuk; Caimacov, Rata, Bogaciuc; Postolachi; Nicolaescu
Italy: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Cristante, Locatelli, Tonali; Orsolini, Retegui, Zaccagni
How to watch Moldova v Italy: TV channel, online stream
The match will be broadcast live on Amazon Prime in the UK, with kick-off set in Moldova for 7:45pm.
The stats for Moldova v Italy
- Italy have won all six previous meetings with Moldova, scoring 17 goals and conceding just three
- The Azzurri are unbeaten in their last four matches, all of which have been wins
- Gennaro Gattuso’s side have scored 16 goals in their last four games
- Moldova have failed to win any of their last eight international matches (D1 L7)
- The hosts have scored only two goals in this qualifying campaign
- Mateo Retegui has been directly involved in nine goals (five goals, four assists) during qualifying
- Italy have kept three clean sheets in their last four matches
- Moldova’s last competitive home win came in March 2023
Prediction
Italy may already be resigned to the play-offs, but Gattuso will still demand focus and professionalism from his side. Moldova will look to make things difficult, but their defensive frailties are likely to be exposed once again.
Prediction: Moldova 0-2 Italy
