Michael Vaughan has picked England as the favourites for the upcoming Ashes against Australia, due to Pat Cummins’ reported absence for the first few matches.
The former England skipper has doubted whether he would be fit in time for the second Test in Brisbane as well, since, as of now, Cummins is likely to miss only the first Test in the Ashes tour.
“If you have a stress fracture and are not able to bowl on November 21 in Perth, how are you going to be fit for the second Test starting on December 5? A stress fracture requires careful management. As much as the Ashes matter, and the temptation to rush him back will be huge, Cummins has to realise there are other series down the line,” Vaughan remarks on Cummins’ doubtful status for the second Test as well.
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“With the news of Pat Cummins’s injury sinking in, one or two will think England are now favourites this winter” – Michael Vaughan
Former England captain Michael Vaughan feels that just like they had won the Ashes back in 2010-11, they might win it this time as well, since most Aussies will be playing without their seasoned skipper Pat Cummins. He has further elaborated on the reasons why Australia will be vulnerable at home.
“When you look back to 2010-11, the only England win in Australia in my time, a couple of breaks went our way. Australia were unsure about their best XI, they had not transitioned properly away from the great side of the early 2000s, and they lost a top bowler, Ryan Harris, with injury.”
The Australian skipper would miss the opening Test in Perth due to a stress injury to his back. “With the news of Pat Cummins’s injury sinking in, one or two will think England are now favourites this winter. I would not argue against that right at this moment, but I would also say be very wary,” he added.
Pat Cummins’s absence would further weaken Australia’s batting department
Pat Cummins, the skipper, not only dominates with the ball but also holds a great record down under with the willow in hand. The Australian skipper has boasted a great record recently with the bat and has often contributed to securing wins for the Aussies.
His absence would weaken the batting department as well, he pointed out. “But it is the balance he brings to the team that is hard to replace. Scott Boland is a very good stand-in as a bowler, but if Cummins is unavailable, then all of a sudden Australia are saddled with a very long tail: Mitchell Starc, Boland, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon.”
“Alex Carey is a good player at No. 7, but when he looks behind him and sees Starc at No. 8, wow, that batting order is light,” he wrote, claiming that the Aussie batting order will lack depth, while England are often known to have bowlers who can bat till the no. 10 position, as witnessed recently in the Anderson-Tendulkar Trophy.
“Over the last few Ashes series, especially in Australia, their tail has had a massive say in the series. England has struggled to finish them off. But now, you think taking 20 wickets looks that bit easier for England, especially with Australia’s top three looking weak too,” he added.
Vaughan praises Australian captain Steve Smith
With Australia having an unsettled opening pair and Cameron Green flickering over his form, the Aussies would have to rely heavily on their bowling deck. They would also look to pose a challenge against the English with their experienced set of spinners.
However, Australia have a significant edge over England in the spin department. “They have a world-class spinner in Lyon and a good back-up in Matthew Kuhnemann, the left-armer. Are we going to see Australia going for two spinners later in the series because it might take them a couple of Tests to realise that is the best way to beat this England side? The one thing I would not rule out later in the series from Adelaide onwards is the element of spin,” he opined.
He also praised Steve Smith’s experience and his calibre as a captain of the Australian side. “Tactically, Steve Smith is an outstanding captain, and he will lead Australia well in the absence of Cummins. A lot of Australia’s ideas originate from Smith in the slip cordon anyway. He is always ahead of the game and England will see that his record as a batsman when he is captain is fantastic – he has a batting average of 68,” he said.
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