As the ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 group stage nears its conclusion, the battle for the final semifinal spot has intensified. While Australia, England, and South Africa have already booked their places in the top four, the remaining slot will be decided between India, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka — all tied on four points each. So let’s look at ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 semi-finals qualification scenario.
Thursday’s clash between India and New Zealand will play a decisive role in determining which team joins the semifinal lineup.
Current Standings: A Three-Way Battle
After five rounds, India sits fourth on the table with 4 points and a +0.526 NRR, followed by New Zealand with 4 points and -0.245 NRR, and Sri Lanka with 4 points and -1.035 NRR.
Here’s how the qualification picture looks ahead of the final group-stage matches:
| Team | Matches Played | Points | NRR | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 6 | 10 | +0.276 | Qualified |
| Australia | 5 | 9 | +1.818 | Qualified |
| England | 5 | 9 | +1.490 | Qualified |
| India | 5 | 4 | +0.526 | In contention |
| New Zealand | 5 | 4 | -0.245 | In contention |
| Sri Lanka | 6 | 4 | -1.035 | In contention |
India’s Path to the Semifinals
India controls its destiny. If Harmanpreet Kaur’s side wins both of their remaining matches — against New Zealand and Bangladesh — they will secure a semifinal berth.
Even if India defeats New Zealand but loses to Bangladesh, they can still qualify with 6 points, provided their NRR stays above that of Sri Lanka and New Zealand.
If India loses to New Zealand but beats Bangladesh, their fate will depend on England defeating New Zealand in the final league match. However, two losses in their last two games would end India’s campaign.
New Zealand’s Qualification Scenarios
For Sophie Devine’s New Zealand, two consecutive wins — over India and England — will guarantee their place in the semifinals with 8 points.
However, if they beat India but lose to England, they must rely on Bangladesh defeating India and ensure their net run rate stays above both Sri Lanka and India.
Any slip in results or a washed-out game could complicate their qualification chances.
Sri Lanka’s Slim but Possible Route
Chamari Athapaththu’s Sri Lanka needs a near-perfect set of results to make it through. They must beat Pakistan in their final league game and hope that:
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India loses both matches (to New Zealand and Bangladesh),
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New Zealand loses to England, and
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Their NRR surpasses both India and New Zealand.
It’s a narrow path, but mathematically possible.
Also read: How India Can Still Qualify for ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 Semi-Finals
How Tie-Breakers Work in the Women’s World Cup
According to ICC rules, if teams finish on equal points:
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The team with most wins is ranked higher.
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If wins are equal, Net Run Rate (NRR) determines the order.
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If still tied, the head-to-head result between teams is used.
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If unresolved, original seeding decides the final order.
This means India holds a crucial edge due to their superior NRR and the head-to-head advantage if they beat New Zealand.
Conclusion
The final semifinal spot in the ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 will likely hinge on the India vs New Zealand clash. A win for India would almost seal their progress, while New Zealand and Sri Lanka must depend on other results and NRR.
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