Democrats will win the government shutdown fight. Subsidies will be extended.
Political Consequences
A timely and interesting poll by the Kaiser Foundation on Obamacare relates to the government shutdown battle.
Please consider Political Consequences of Health Policy Legislation
Key Takeaways
- Three-quarters (78%) of adults say Congress should extend the enhanced tax credits for people who buy their own insurance through the ACA Marketplace.
- This is more than three times the share of the public (22%) who say Congress should let the credits expire.
- Notably, majorities across political party want Congress to extend the tax credits including nine in ten (92%) Democrats, eight in ten (82%) independents, and six in ten (59%) Republicans.
- A majority of Republicans who align with the MAGA movement (57%) also say Congress should extend these subsidies.
Blame Game Results
- About four in ten (39%) adults who want to see the tax credits extended say that if Congress does not extend these enhanced tax credits, President Trump deserves most of the blame.Another four in ten (37%) say the same about Republicans in Congress.
- About two in ten (22%) say that Democrats in Congress deserve most of the blame.
- Among those who buy their own coverage (nearly half of whom identify as Republican or Republican-leaning), Republicans in Congress and President Trump receive the majority of the blame (42% and 37%, respectively).
Awareness
- About six in ten adults say they have heard “a little” (30%) or “nothing at all” (31%) about the expiring ACA subsidies, showing widespread lack of information on the cost of coverage for over 24 million people in the U.S.
- Four in ten say (39%) they’ve heard “a lot” or “some” – up from 27% in June of this year. Even among the group whose cost of coverage is expected to double next year – those who purchase their own insurance plans – about six in ten (58%) say they have heard just “a little” or “nothing at all” about the expiration of tax credits for people who self-purchased insurance.
- Democrats seem to be more aware of the pending expiration, with about half of Democrats (50%) saying they have heard at least “some” about this, compared to about a third of independents (35%) and Republicans (34%).
- More than eight in ten adults say they would be concerned, including at least half who say they would be “very concerned,” if they heard that health insurance would be unaffordable for many people who buy their own coverage (86%), that 4 million people would lose their health insurance coverage (86%), or if they heard that people who work at small businesses or are self-employed would be directly impacted (85%).
Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) Favorability
Big Beautiful Bill Favorability by Political Party
- Overall, about four in ten (38%) adults hold favorable views of the tax and budget legislation passed earlier this year, including three-quarters of Republicans (75%) and eight in ten (82%) Republicans or Republican-leaning independents who support the MAGA movement.
- Democrats and independents, on the other hand, largely hold unfavorable views of the legislation, including nearly nine in ten (88%) Democrats and two-thirds (68%) of independents who say they view the law unfavorably.
Only 31 percent of independents view Trump’s BBB favorable.
If these polling numbers are in the ballpark, and I suspect they are, Republicans are in trouble if they kill these extended subsidies.
Is Any Benefit Ever Temporary?
American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) in 2021 provided “temporary” enhanced tax credits to adults who purchased their own health insurance through the Marketplaces.
Democrats made the enhanced tax credits “temporary” to reduce the alleged costs.
Both parties do this to avoid budget rules and to make deficits look smaller than everyone who is honest knows they will be.
The BBB budget fight this year was about extending Trump’s first term Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.
The TCJA was set to expire this year so Republicans could make that package look smaller than it was.
Extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) individual and estate tax provisions will cost approximately $4 trillion to $5 trillion over the next 10 years. The cost is driven by the extension of rate cuts, the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) adjustments, the standard deduction, and the Child Tax Credit.
Trump is attacking Republican House Rep Thomas Massie for not going along with this budget monstrosity.
Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson claimed the $4-$5 trillion cost was “just an extension” so it did not violate budget rules.
Somehow, the Obamacare extension is a cost, not an extension.
The OBBA Budget Deficit Shell Game in 10 Pictures
Please consider my June 30, 2025 prophesy The OBBA Budget Deficit Shell Game in 10 Pictures
Republicans charlatans say the One Big Beautiful Act OBBA is really just a continuation of existing policy.
Yeah right. The current TCJA set to expire next year was budgeted for expiring next year. Now it won’t and no one in their right mind thought it would.
Republicans purposely underestimated the budget impact in 2017 and now
Blatant Hypocrisy Everywhere
I am tired of all this hypocrisy, by both parties.
I was against the TCJA because I knew this would happen.
And I was against Biden’s Rescue Plan for the same reason: No one wants to pay for anything.
And I am telling you now what will happen with any “temporary” extension of anything by either party.
When Will Republicans Cave on Democrat’s Government Shutdown Demands?
On October 3, I asked How Quickly Will Republicans Cave on Democrat’s Government Shutdown Demands?
Trump aides are discussing proposals to extend Obamacare subsidies.
Democrats’ Strategy
If Democrats can hang on for the rest of the month, healthcare premium notices will be sent.
Consumers can start shopping for next year’s coverage on November 1. Some ACA participants have already started receiving notifications about next year’s premium increases.
About 24 million people are enrolled in ACA (Obamacare) coverage. Roughly that many people will not be happy with sticker shock.
TACO Coming Up
Expect a TACO from Trump by the end of the month. The Senate will easily go along.
Then expect Trump to browbeat any House Republicans who refuse to go along.
House Speaker Mike Johnson will sing the praises of Trump’s great deal, no matter what it is.
And Trump will brag about extending Obamacare.
The flack I got from MAGA supporters in my comments sections was amusing. Many attacked the the Wall Street Journal just for saying their were discussions.
Specifically, the Journal stated “Inside the White House, aides are discussing proposals to extend the enhanced subsidies for Affordable Care Act health-insurance plans, the officials said.”
Fake News Definition
The definition of “fake news” is anything someone does not want to believe.
Unsurprisingly, this is true of both parties.
Now, factor in the polling numbers that I was not even aware of until today.
Oops, I forgot. That KKK poll must be fake news too, until Trump brags about extending these tax credits.
Then we will find out this was some sort of 5D thinking maneuver and Trump was really in favor all along.
In case you have not figured this out, look for a second “temporary” extension of these extended Obamacare subsidies to “hold down the costs”.
Related Posts
December 16, 2023: In How Many Ways are President Biden and Trump Alike?
More than most care to admit, Trump stands with Biden in many ways. I count 18 similarities. How many can you name?
Here is point #16: Both are fiscally irresponsible. Both pretend not to be. Deficits and debt prove it. So does the fact that neither wants to address Social Security and both want more money for the military.
April 24, 2025: I’m Accused of Never Supporting Trump. Let’s Have a Fact Check
A reader said he knows where I stand.
May 12, 2025: The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Will Continue Spending at Biden’s Level
Republicans Surrender
Please note The GOP Surrenders on Medicaid
The House bill shrinks from a fight over able-bodied men on the dole.
The work requirement doesn’t kick in until 2029—a political lifetime from now. The bill also sets up a waiver process, which states have long abused to evade work rules in food stamps.
But far more notable is that the bill fails to end Medicaid’s outrageous bias toward prime-age men who can work. The feds pay 90% of the cost of able-bodied adults eligible for Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act—but only roughly 50% to 77% (depending on the state) for pregnant women, the blind and so on.
Republicans won’t even insist that able-bodied persons must work.
Pathetic.
Pathetic was a good one word summary of the Republican budget surrender.
Dear MAGA fans, have you forgotten that surrender already? I suspect you have, so please note US Debt Now Grows by $1 Trillion Every 150 Days
Well, not to worry, tariff collection will surely grow by $1 trillion every 150 days to cover it. Won’t it?
What’s Gold’s Message?
On September 2, 2025 I wrote Gold Surges Above $3,600 to New Record High Despite a Rising Dollar
A Word About Faith
Gold does not believe the Fed is under control, Congress is under control, budget deficits are under control, and Trump is under control.
And neither do I.
On October 8, 2025 gold hit $4,066. Do you understand the message?
