The polls and analysts were wildly wrong on this one.
Milei’s Party Wins Argentina Midterm Vote in Major Comeback
Bloomberg reports Milei’s Party Wins Argentina Midterm Vote in Major Comeback
President Javier Milei’s party won Argentina’s midterm vote Sunday, a result that will give the libertarian leader a stronger foothold in Congress as he seeks to pass major reforms to boost the nation’s beleaguered economy.
Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza, received 41% of votes nationwide with 92% of ballots counted, according to data published by Interior Minister Guillermo Francos on Sunday. Milei’s party led in most of Argentina’s provinces.
Francos said Milei’s party had won 64 seats of the 127 seats up for election in the lower house of Congress. The results would put his party in a position to get a third of seats in the lower house of Congress, protecting Milei’s vetoes, which opposition lawmakers had overridden in recent months to pass spending bills.
The result came after Milei’s party suffered a landslide defeat to the Peronist opposition in a September local vote in the Buenos Aires province, a result that sparked a selloff of the peso amid investor fears over the president’s standing with voters.
The result was “a very strong and conclusive performance by Milei’s LLA party,” said Alberto Ramos, managing director and head of Latin America macroeconomic research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “This should give his administration a fresh endowment of legitimacy and political capital which if well used should strengthen governability. That also bodes well for the continuation of strong US financial support.”
The Big Win
After the landslide defeat in September to Peronists, the assumption was Milei’ might not get to the 34 percent threshold he needed to make vetoes of opposition-sponsored legislation stick.
Instead, Milei’s party had won 64 seats of the 127 seats up for election in the lower parliament, enough to prevent a veto from being overridden.
Yahoo!News reports Milei emerges triumphant in high-stakes Argentine midterm elections closely watched by Washington
Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei won decisive victories in key districts across the country in midterm elections on Sunday, clinching a crucial vote of confidence that strengthens his ability to carry out his radical free-market experiment with billions of dollars in backing from the Trump administration.
Milei’s governing La Libertad Avanza party won 40.84% of the votes nationally in elections to renew almost half of the lower house of Congress, according to tallies in local media using numbers from electoral authorities that significantly exceeded analysts’ projections for Sunday’s vote.
The early results also showed La Libertad Avanza sweeping six of the eight provinces that voted to renew a third of the Senate on Sunday.
Perhaps never has an Argentine legislative election generated so much interest in Washington and Wall Street, particularly after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that he could rescind $20 billion in financial assistance to his close ally in cash-strapped Argentina if Milei loses to the populist left-leaning opposition movement, known as Peronism, in Sunday’s vote.
Milei, a key ideological ally of Trump who has slashed state spending and liberalized Argentina’s economy after decades of budget deficits and protectionism, had a lot riding on Sunday’s elections.
His La Libertad Avanza party, which until Sunday had just 37 seats in the lower house and six in the Senate, needed to emerge with enough seats in Congress to see through the rest of his economic overhaul and secure that U.S. rescue package.
Analysts said Milei’s strong showing Sunday looked likely to translate into enough seats to defend presidential vetoes, prevent an impeachment vote and ensure the passage of presidential decrees.
A Mandate?
The Wall Street Journal reports Milei Wins Mandate for Free-Market Revolution in Argentina’s Election
President Javier Milei scored a decisive political win Sunday, tightening his grip on Argentina’s Congress and securing a lifeline for his audacious free-market revolution backed by President Trump.
With nearly 92% of votes counted, Milei’s Freedom Advances party won almost 41% of the national vote, putting it on track to more than double its representation in Congress. That means it should secure at least one-third of the seats in both chambers—the critical threshold that allows Milei to preserve his veto power and defend his sweeping decrees.
The result, stronger than most polls had predicted, gives Milei fresh political momentum after months of unrest over deep spending cuts and a grinding recession last year. It also shores up his standing with Washington and the International Monetary Fund, which have tied future financial support to the survival of his austerity experiment. Market analysts expect Argentine bonds and the peso to rally when trading opens Monday, reflecting relief that Milei still has political traction.
The U.S. announced a $20 billion currency swap this month to prop up Argentina’s currency and promised to raise another $20 billion from private banks and sovereign-wealth funds.
Trump has made it clear his support was contingent on Milei’s electoral success. “If he wins, we’re staying with him. And if he doesn’t win, we’re gone,” Trump said this month.
Milei swept to power two years ago on the promise of radical change, vowing to end the nation’s decadeslong struggle with runaway inflation and economic ruin through relentless spending cuts. The messy-haired libertarian economist promised “anarcho-capitalism” and often appears in public with a chain saw to demonstrate how he was aggressively cutting spending to drive change.
Milei sharply devalued the peso to unify an array of exchange rates and curb a chronic budget gap that was funded by printing money. He also reduced energy subsidies and fired tens of thousands of public-sector employees. The policies briefly stabilized Argentina’s finances, producing the first balanced budget in more than a decade. The country’s infamously high inflation rate has fallen to 32% from 200% two years ago.
While many voters were ready to criticize the president, they said handing back power to the leftist Peronist opposition was unthinkable.
“Milei is putting the country back on its feet,” said Leandro Pedrozo, a 20-year-old law student, who said many of his friends and family had left Argentina during financial crises under Peronist governments. “I’m not leaving—I had the chance to go live in Europe, but no! I’ve decided to bet on my country.”
Milei’s party entered the vote with just 37 deputies and six senators, around 15% of Congress and 10% of the Senate, respectively. The midterm gains leave him still far from a majority but enough to give him effective veto power over hostile legislation. Analysts say holding one-third of either chamber is crucial for sustaining his presidential decrees and fending off attempts by the opposition to reverse his fiscal agenda.
“No one was expecting this impressive comeback,” said Rodrigo Zarazaga, a Jesuit priest who has worked as a chaplain for decades in the slums of the Buenos Aires province, home to half of the country’s poor and 40% of the country’s voters.
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