Let’s discuss some election benchmarks, posted in advance.
Democrats Went 18 for 18
But in the prediction department …
“Some of these are totally unreasonable and not happening no matter how good of a night Democrats have like gaining 3 seats in the NJ assembly.“
The Meaning of the Democrats’ Victory
Karl Rove discusses The Meaning of the Democrats’ Victory
Tuesday was a very good night for Democrats, but the headlines obscure things that should worry both parties for next year’s midterms.
While Kamala Harris last year eked out only a 5.8-point margin in Virginia, on Tuesday Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the governorship by about 15 points. She flipped seven traditionally GOP counties, and the government shutdown helped her reverse President Trump’s big 2024 gains in Northern Virginia, home to many federal workers.
Ms. Spanberger’s margin was so wide that she dragged Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones across the finish line, despite his having fantasized about the murder of a Republican state House speaker. The GOP lost at least 13 of its 48 seats in the 100-member House of Delegates.
Last November, Ms. Harris won New Jersey by 5.4 points. Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill took the governorship by 13. She carried 14 of 21 counties—including all five Mr. Trump flipped in 2024—and she reversed the president’s strong showing in majority-nonwhite counties like Passaic and Hudson. Republicans also lost as many as seven legislative seats, which would put Democrats at a 52-year high. [Note the prediction above on gaining 3 seats.]
Democrats even won in states Mr. Trump carried last year. In Georgia, two GOP Public Service Commission incumbents went down, giving Democrats their first nonfederal statewide victories in nearly 20 years. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s big gerrymandering referendum victory in California offsets Republican redistricting gains in Texas.
While registered Democrats outnumber Republican ones in Pennsylvania by less than 2 points, all three Democratic state supreme court justices won retention by over 22 points.
Most concerning for the GOP, voters’ decisions Tuesday were certainly a result of their disapproval of Mr. Trump and his policies. The RealClearPolitics average that day had him at 43.4% approve, 54.4% disapprove. He has even worse numbers on the economy, foreign policy and inflation.
Then there’s the Big Apple. It now has a Democratic Socialist mayor. Zohran Mamdani beat former Gov. Andrew Cuomo by 8.8 points. But Mr. Mamdani—the Democratic nominee—won barely half the voters in a three-way race, 50.4% to be precise. That’s unimpressive in a city where 65% of registered voters are Democrats and only 11% registered Republicans.
Mr. Mamdani won because he talked about New Yorkers’ greatest worry: Can I afford to live in this city? Exit polls suggest voters suspect his answers won’t work, but at least he understood their challenges.
Gotham’s new socialist mayor is a problem for Democrats. Republicans will make him the face of the Democratic Party nationally. Mr. Mamdani’s free-everything proposals thrill left-wingers, but middle America will reject his socialist nostrums and disdain for Israel. It was center-leaning messaging that got Democrats victories in New Jersey and Virginia Tuesday. If Mr. Mamdani dominates the news, Democrats miles away from Manhattan will have to separate themselves from him and his ideology.
It’s time for both parties to recalibrate. Democrats should head to the center. Republicans must offer voters constructive conservative answers to the nation’s challenges or Tuesday will have been a taste of what the GOP will suffer next November. Changing tone and approach are never easy, but both parties must do it.
Rove Is Spot On
That was a fair and balanced assessment by Rove. Fair assessments are a rarity these days. Trump and the Progressives want you to choose between extremes.
Tariffs are not working. The labor market is not good. And inflation is a huge problem.
All of that shows up in the polls.
Trump’s Net Approval Rating
Hoot of the Day Blame Game
Last night, I commented “My hoot of the day is Trump blames the government shutdown for the defeats.“
For discussion please see Democrats Win NYC Mayoral Race, and New Jersey and Virginia Governorships
Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger won her race in Virginia in a rout over GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.
In New Jersey, some polls predicted a close contest, but Democratic Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill won with ease.
Question of the Day
Q: If Trump blames the shutdown, then wasn’t the shutdown was a smart move by the Democrats?
A: Obviously. But this is Trumperland where such contradictions and logic don’t exist.Ironies Abound
Yesterday, CBS News reported Trump says government shutdown ends when Democrats give in: “If they don’t vote, that’s their problem”
Q: Excuse me for asking, but whose problem is it today?
A: See above Trumpian blame.
Wait Till Next Year
Meanwhile, please note Trump Adopts Chicago Cubs’ Perpetual Message, “Wait Till Next Year”
“One Big Beautiful Bill” did not resonate. Trump opts for “Wait Till 2026”.
Observation of the Day
Next year won’t happen if Republicans lose the House in the midterms based on Trump’s results on inflation, tariffs, and jobs today.
At a minimum, it’s time for a policy change on tariffs.
AI may or may not do wonders eventually but voters are concerned about jobs and inflation now.
The Midterms will not be decided on whether one preferred Trump over Harris, they will be decided on jobs, inflation, housing, and gerrymandering.
All but gerrymandering look poor for Republicans.
