Chip Roy does not think much of Speaker Mike Johnson’s plan.
Chip Roy
“Now we’re sitting here, and we’re listening to nonsense about health care, where my colleagues on the other side of the aisle sit here saying, ‘Well, you guys aren’t doing anything about the massive, expensive cost of health care.’ Why do you think it’s expensive? Because you literally cut a deal with insurance companies to run health care…
And yet, Republicans will complain about it, and then they’ll offer milquetoast garbage like we’re offering this week, and then go home at Christmas and say, ‘Look at what we’re doing, we’re campaigning on reducing health care.’
Well, congratulations. At some point people will look at this body and say, ‘Maybe we should get rid of all 435 members of the House and all 100 members of the Senate, and start over, because Congress is literally failing the American people.’”
Chip Roy is a member of the Freedom Caucus. He is not running for re-election in the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections.
Freedom Caucus Members Not Running for Re-election
- Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.): Running for Governor.
- Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.): Running for Governor.
- Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.): Running for Senate.
- Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.): Resigning from Congress in January 2026.
- Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.): Running for Governor.
- Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.): Running for Senate.
- Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.): Running for Governor.
- Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas): Running for Texas Attorney General.
- Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.): Running for Governor.
- Rep. Thomas Tiffany (R-Wis.): Running for Governor.
Freedom Caucus doesn’t publicize its membership, which reportedly is by invitation only.
Other House Republicans not running for re-election, whose Freedom Caucus membership status is uncertain, include Jodey Arrington, Dan Newhouse, Troy Nehls, Michael McCaul, Morgan Luttrell, Randy Feenstra, Dusty Johnson, Don Bacon, Buddy Carter, Ashley Hinson, John James, Andy Barr, John Rose, Wesley Hunt, and Elise Stefanik.
Republican Senators Supporting Obamacare
- Susan Collins (Maine)
- Josh Hawley (Missouri)
- Lisa Murkowski (Alaska)
- Dan Sullivan (Alaska)
These senators expressed concerns about the potential for steep premium increases for millions of Americans if the subsidies were allowed to expire, arguing that Congress needed to address rising healthcare costs for their constituents.
Missouri Republican Senator Josh Hawley has expressed support for extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium subsidies and has voted with Democrats on related measures, citing the need to lower health care costs for his constituents. While traditional Republican platforms often oppose the ACA, Hawley represents a shift in strategy, focusing on populist policies that align with Missouri voter concerns over rising costs.
The original ACA legislation passed the Senate in 2009 with zero Republican votes. We are now up to four who are willing to extend the whole shebang.
GOP senators frustrated by Speaker’s handling of explosive health care issue
The Hill comments GOP senators frustrated by Speaker’s handling of explosive health care issue
Republican senators who defeated a Democratic bill to extend ObamaCare subsidies for three years without reforms to the program are frustrated the same proposal appears likely to pass the House after Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) was unable to quell a rebellion within his own party.
GOP senators want to preserve their working relationship with Johnson, so they are careful about criticizing him publicly.
But they aren’t happy Johnson took a hard-line stance against putting legislation on the House floor to extend the expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies only to watch helplessly as moderate GOP rebels signed onto a discharge petition to advance a Democratic plan to extend them through 2028.
The Democratic proposal now has enough momentum to pass the House, which means it would likely come to the Senate early next year, putting GOP senators on the defensive once again over the expiring ACA subsidies just when funding for broad swaths of government is due to expire Jan. 30.
GOP senators said Johnson’s rapid loss of control of a group of his members signal the weakness of his leadership, given the narrow House Republican majority and fears that the House may flip to Democrats in next year’s election.
“It strikes me as odd the House is passing something we rejected,” said one Republican senator who requested anonymity to vent frustration over the Democrats’ emerging victory in the House.
“There needs to be a plan. There should have been a plan to move forward with a result,” the lawmaker added.
Milquetoast Proposal
Here’s what’s in the House GOP Health Care Bill Proposal
House Republicans have approved their version of a health care bill as the expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies looms ever closer.
But the legislation does not address those subsidies, and Obamacare enrollees who want their coverage to begin on January 1 don’t have the luxury of time.
The deadline to sign up for full-year 2026 coverage was Monday in most states, and the premiums shoppers saw did not include the enhanced assistance. (Open enrollment generally runs until January 15.)
Association Health Plans
The House bill would allow small businesses — as well as self-employed people — to band together across industries to buy coverage through association health plans in an effort to lower premiums.
President Donald Trump attempted to expand these plans in his first term before being blocked in federal court. The rule aimed to allow small businesses and the self-employed to unite based on their industry or location and buy coverage. It was another way the president tried to undercut the Affordable Care Act. The rule was eventually rescinded by the Biden administration.
Cost-sharing subsidies
Trump stopped paying insurers to provide the subsidies during his first term in an effort to weaken the Affordable Care Act. However, the landmark health reform law requires insurers to provide the reductions, so they hiked the premiums of silver plans on the exchange, a practice known as silver loading.
Pharmacy benefit managers
House Republicans would require pharmacy benefit managers, which act as middlemen between drugmakers and insurers or employers, to provide employers with data on the price of drugs, the rebates they receive from manufacturers and other operations. It’s an effort to bring more transparency into an opaque part of the prescription drug supply chain that has been blamed for the high cost of medications. But it is unlikely to have much of an impact on the industry, experts said.
PBM reform has had bipartisan support in Congress, and Trump has also targeted PBMs. A more comprehensive bipartisan overhaul measure looked close to passage last December, when it was included in a short-term government funding plan. But the massive funding package was torpedoed by billionaire Elon Musk and Trump.
Choice accounts
The House bill would codify a regulation from the first Trump administration that allows employers to provide their workers with tax-free funds to buy coverage on the Obamacare exchange.
Critics are concerned that this measure could result in more sicker employees in Obamacare policies, which would raise premiums. Also, it could place more of the risk of rising rates on workers if their employers’ contributions don’t keep pace.
Enhanced premium subsidies
The House GOP bill would not extend the enhanced premium subsidies that were enacted by the Biden administration as part of a Covid-19 pandemic relief package.
If the enhanced subsidies lapse, enrollees will see their annual premium payments increase by 114% — or about $1,000 — on average in 2026, according to KFF.
Among the hardest hit will be lower-income enrollees, who currently pay nothing or next to nothing for coverage thanks to the subsidies. Also, those in their 50s and 60s will likely see their already-hefty premium payments jump substantially.
Also, the middle class – individuals earning more than $62,600 and families for four making more than $128,600 – will no longer qualify for any assistance once the beefed-up subsidies expire. The pandemic measure had lifted the income cap on the aid.
Not All Bad Ideas … But
Those are not all bad ideas, but but they really don’t do a damn thing about soaring price of Obamacare. And in isolation, they have no chance of passing the Senate.
Roughly 24 million people will see their out-of-pocket expenses rise an average of 117 percent.
But there is another impact. Please note the CBO estimates the House GOP health care bill would save $36 billion but leave 100,000 more people uninsured.
House Republicans’ health care bill would lower the deficit by $35.6 billion over the next decade, but it would increase the number of uninsured Americans by 100,000, on average, per year, according to a Congressional Budget Office estimate released Tuesday.
The measure, which is expected to be voted on in the coming days, would also lower the gross premium for the benchmark Affordable Care Act plan by 11%, on average, through 2035.
Johnson’s Sleight of Hand
Bear in mind, the CBO estimates the plan would lower “gross premiums” not “net” premiums starting in 2027.
Actual out of pocket premiums would be 117 percent higher. So, it is more than a bit disingenuous to claim the plan will lower premiums.
Moreover, I highly rather doubt the CBO estimates. KFF estimates as many as 25 percent will opt out of Obamacare. That would be 6.0 million dropouts, not 100,000.
Instead, let’s assume 10 percent drop out. That would be 2.4 million dropouts.
Q: Who would those 2.4 million dropouts be?
A: The healthy!
Q: So what would happen?
A: Those in the plan would need more services on average.
Q: What then?
A: Premiums would rise for those remaining in the plan.
Simply put, the CBO estimates are nonsense.
Angst Rises
Might I remind you (again and again) that this whole mess could have easily been avoided if Trump and Republicans just signed on to a one-year extension.
It would have put this discussion safely beyond the midterms, and it would have given Republicans time to come up with a plan better than Johnson’s milquetoast proposal.
Leadership Out of Touch
Mike Johnson and Republicans have lost control of the agenda.
By blocking a vote on any extension under any circumstances, Democrats get their wish of a vote on a 3-year extension of Obamacare.
I warned about this on many occasions, and now here we are.
November 7, 2025: Democrats Offer a One-Year Obamacare Extension Deal. Should Republicans Accept?
Think this through from every angle.
How I see it: “At some point, Republicans have to make a decision about whether or not they want to hold out for 100 marbles or accept 98.”
Republicans would be crazy not to accept this offer. It’s just one year. And they can block further extensions easily.
Had Republicans accepted a one-year extension they could have safely moved the debate past the mid-term elections.
November 27, 2025: Trump Says It ‘May Be Necessary’ to Extend Obamacare Subsidies
Obamacare Q&A of the Day
Q: Is there any time to fix Obamacare to Johnson’s satisfaction by December 15?
A: NoQ: Johnson says he won’t hold a vote. What’s gonna happen?
A: If Johnson does not agree to hold a vote, all the Democrats and a handful of Republicans will force a vote by means of discharge petition. This is the same setup as the Epstein forced vote.Twisted Logic Addendum
Trump says the “unaffordable care act has been a disaster ” that it “may be necessary” to extend it.
Thanks! I made a note to add that to my book of twisted government logic if and when I get to writing it.
December 17, 2025: Republican Dissidents Force a Vote on Obamacare Subsidies Over Speaker’s Objection
Obamacare three-year extension vote coming up in 2026.
“I continue to believe any extension should be targeted, fiscally responsible, and include income eligibility limits and safeguards against fraud, similar to the bipartisan discussions underway in the Senate,” Lawler said. “But when leadership blocks action entirely, Congress has a responsibility to act. My priority is ensuring Hudson Valley families aren’t caught in the gridlock.”
What happened?
Republicans refused a one-year extension. Then they refused any vote at all on subsidies.
Now we have a discharge position in the House to force a vote on a three-year extension. And we have four Republican Senators willing to go along.
Q: Who could have possibly predicted this?
A: Me
Q: Does anyone want a one-year extension now?
A: Sorry, the question is moot.
Another Shutdown Looms
We have an open Republican rebellion just when funding for broad swaths of government is due to expire Jan. 30.
Nine of the 12 annual appropriations bills remain unresolved, with a Jan 30, 2026 deadline for a Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund remaining agencies, setting up potential conflict over spending levels.
Look forward to another government shutdown over health care.
Won’t that be fun?
In case you missed it, please note my estimate that Health Care will add at least 1.5 percentage points to PCE price inflation in 2026.
For discussion, please see Health Care Inflation Bomb Makes the Fed’s 2 Percent Target Almost Impossible
