This is like winning a game in regulation then voluntarily agreeing to overtime.
Deal Within Reach
The Wall Street Journal reports Senate Republicans Say Deal on ACA Extension Within Reach
Senate Republican negotiators say they are closing in on a deal with Democrats to extend and overhaul the federal health-insurance subsidies that expired at the end of last year, though language related to abortion coverage remains a major sticking point.
Sen. Bernie Moreno (R., Ohio), who is leading talks along with Sen. Susan Collins (R., Maine), said senators are close to finalizing a framework and could release the text of the bill by Monday. He said his goal was to craft a measure that could draw support from more than half of Senate Republicans.
“We’re in the red zone,” he said, though he cautioned that doesn’t mean it is a done deal. Collins echoed Moreno’s optimism, saying that senators “are close to coming up with a proposal that would be bipartisan.”
Republicans have for years opposed the enhanced ACA subsidies, which were first passed into law in 2021 by Democrats and expired at the end of last year. But with insurance costs rising sharply for millions of Americans ahead of the midterm elections this fall, some Republican lawmakers have pushed for a short-term deal with Democrats to buy time for more comprehensive changes.
The talks are picking up as the House is set to hold a vote on a three-year extension of enhanced ACA subsidies on Thursday, after four centrist Republicans crossed party lines last month to back the Democratic effort over the objections of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.).
Johnson also has pointed to abortion language as a hangup for Republicans. “We’re not going to authorize taxpayer funding for abortion. I mean, it’s been a consistent policy,” Johnson said Wednesday.
President Trump told House Republicans on Tuesday that they should be “a little flexible” on abortion policy. His press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, later said that Trump was saying that “Republicans, and frankly Democrats, too, need to show a little bit more flexibility” to get something done on healthcare.
The Moreno framework continues the enhanced subsidies for two years and extends the ACA’s open enrollment period. It includes some changes, including a cutoff on subsidy eligibility when an enrollee’s income is more than 700% of the federal poverty level, or about $225,000 for a family of four. The framework also includes a new requirement, meant to deter fraudulent signups, that enrollees pay at least $5 a month toward their coverage, which could take the form of a $60 annual payment.
Moreno said the framework would include a penalty on insurance companies that deliberately sign people up fraudulently, in the form of a $100,000 fine per occurrence.
Key Obamacare Points
- Two-year Obamacare extension
- The deal restores eligibility up to 700 percent of poverty
- A kinder Trump calls for Republicans to be flexible on abortion.
- Republicans put “skin in the game”. How much? $5.00 per month. Allegedly $5 will stop fraud.
- A $100,000 charge for fraud, per occurrence.
The only significant feature above is the final bullet point. This could have easily been agreed to without the longest government shutdown fight in history.
More importantly Democrats offered a one-year extension. Republicans killed that only to agree in overtime to a 2-year deal (likely to become a 10-year deal to win votes for more military spending).
Republicans Failures
There is fraud in Obamacare. But there is massively more fraud in Medicaid.
Republicans did nothing in the One Big Beautiful Act about Medicaid. Nothing.
And after agreeing to hold down costs in Obamacare, Republicans voluntarily agreed to send Obamacare into overtime.
Question of the Day
Q: Gee, who couldda possibly have predicted this?
A: Uh… Me.
Democrats Offer a One-Year Obamacare Extension Deal. Should Republicans Accept?
November 7, 2025: Democrats Offer a One-Year Obamacare Extension Deal. Should Republicans Accept?
Think this through from every angle.
How I see it: “At some point, Republicans have to make a decision about whether or not they want to hold out for 100 marbles or accept 98.”
Republicans would be crazy not to accept this offer. It’s just one year. And they can block further extensions easily.
November 27, 2025: Trump Says It ‘May Be Necessary’ to Extend Obamacare Subsidies
Trump rejected a one-year deal. Any guesses for how long now?
Well guess what. After refusing a one-year extension deal, Trump may agree to a multi-year extension.
Obamacare Q&A of the Day
Q: Is there any time to fix Obamacare to Johnson’s satisfaction by December 15?
A: NoQ: Johnson says he won’t hold a vote. What’s gonna happen?
A: If Johnson does not agree to hold a vote, all the Democrats and a handful of Republicans will force a vote by means of discharge petition. This is the same setup as the Epstein forced vote.Q: What then?
A: It’s precisely hard to say, but Republicans will be scrambling. It’s entirely possible to see a multi-year extension plus extra goodies to buy Republican votes.Q: What does Trump want?
A: Free money. UBIQ: Wouldn’t that be worse?
A: Of course, the spigot would never stop.Q: Could anyone have possibly predicted this turn of events?
A: Absolutely not. Oh … wait a second.Twisted Logic Addendum
Trump says the “unaffordable care act has been a disaster ” that it “may be necessary” to extend it.
Thanks! I made a note to add that to my book of twisted government logic if and when I get to writing it.
Republicans Own Health Care Now, What Will They Do With It?
On December 7, I asked Republicans Own Health Care Now, What Will They Do With It?
Republicans are no doubt quietly (MGT not quietly) seething over health care.
Republicans now own health care and will get the blame no matter what happens. Those who are simmering right now will be extremely angry when the actual bills have to be paid.
That starts January 1 for most and February 1 for others.
Expect the Health Care issue to blow sky high in early 2026, with a big Republican scramble on what to do.
When Congress went on recess in December, several readers asked me to admit I was wrong.
I replied “watch what happens in January”.
And Here We Are
Republicans successfully ran out the ACA extension funding clock, seemingly winning the game.
However, in overtime, Republicans agreed to a two-year extension. Open enrollment which expired last month will be extended.
The ACA extension could have been one year with more pressure on Democrats to make a good deal. And debate would have been postponed until after the midterm elections. But No!
To top it off, President Trump told House Republicans on Tuesday that they should be “a little flexible” on abortion policy.
I failed to see that special twist. Apologies offered.
Now, would someone please try to explain how Republicans won the government shutdown fight?
What Happened?
What happened is what I said would happen. Republicans do not want to take the blame for Obamacare premiums rising an average of 114 percent.
There are 24 million people on ACA, and a majority of them are in Republican states.
For discussion, please see my December 7, 2025 post How Much Will 4.5 Million Florida Residents Pay for Obamacare in 2026?
What’s Next?
Instead of Obamacare premiums going up by an average of 114 percent, they will only go up 26 percent.
So people will still be angry, just not as angry.
Trump wants more money for military. I will write about that shortly.
Q:How will he get it?
A: By offering more money to Democrat social programs.
Q: Is this what you voted for?
A: You tell me, but it’s what I said would happen.
What About Overall Health Care Costs?
Good question. I addressed that issue on December 8, 2025 in Health Care Inflation Bomb Makes the Fed’s 2 Percent Target Almost Impossible
Let’s discuss 2026 health care premiums and what they mean to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
I project increases in health care will add 1.4 to 1.6 percentage points to headline PCE inflation before food, energy, shelter, or tariffs move prices at all.
And that does not include Obamacare. Click on the above post for the math details.
Happy New Year.
