US customs trade data, compared to Trump’s Truth Social claim. Possible decision January 14.
It’s the IEEPA tariffs that are under Supreme Court review.
Total rebates, if they happened yesterday, would be 93.15 billion for fiscal year 2025 plus 40.36 billion for fiscal year 2026.
That total is 133.5 billion, rising daily.
This is highly speculative, but we may have a ruling on Wednesday, January 14.
Trump’s Claim
Truth Social Link: The actual numbers that we would have to pay back if, for any reason, the Supreme Court were to rule against the United States of America on Tariffs, would be many Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and that doesn’t include the amount of “payback” that Countries and Companies would require for the Investments they are making on building Plants, Factories, and Equipment, for the purpose of being able to avoid the payment of Tariffs. When these Investments are added, we are talking about Trillions of Dollars! It would be a complete mess, and almost impossible for our Country to pay. Anybody who says that it can be quickly and easily done would be making a false, inaccurate, or totally misunderstood answer to this very large and complex question. It may not be possible but, if it were, it would be Dollars that would be so large that it would take many years to figure out what number we are talking about and even, who, when, and where, to pay. Remember, when America shines brightly, the World shines brightly. In other words, if the Supreme Court rules against the United States of America on this National Security bonanza, WE’RE SCREWED!
PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
Big Set of Trumpian Lies
The cumulative IEEPA total to date is 133.5 billion.
Trump’s claim “that doesn’t include the amount of “payback” that Countries and Companies would require for the Investments they are making on building Plants, Factories, and Equipment” is nonsense.
Those are wildly exaggerated unsecured pledges and mostly rebutted by source. Importantly, those are private investments, not US Treasury receipts.
Nothing was collected and there would be zero rebates.
IEEPA Tariff Breakdowns
Tariff Remedy Enforcement by Fiscal Year
Section 232 Tariffs
Trump’s statement “it would be Dollars that would be so large that it would take many years to figure out what number we are talking about and even, who, when, and where, to pay,” is a blatant lie.
The idea we are collecting tariffs and don’t even know how much is laughable. The numbers on my charts are published administration numbers.
On the assumption that customs knows who it collected money from, the process is simple. Rebate the IEEPA tariff money collected. The administration has details for every category, updated daily.
The administration’s bragging by category proves they are lying about the difficulty of rebates.
Of course, one cannot possibly underestimate the potential stupidity of this administration.
If the Administration insisted, it could do things on a receipt-by-receipt basis. Then the administration would have mountains of paperwork to deal with.
Related Posts
November 16, 2025: What Are the Odds the Supreme Court Rules Against Trump on Tariffs?
The Supreme Court decision is not random. I discuss a framework.
My take then was 75-25 against Trump. I expect a 6-3 ruling. Click for an analysis justice-by-justice.
December 29, 2025: Will Tariffs Be Refunded If the Supreme Court Strikes Them Down?
Polymarket provides no guidance because that bet expired December 31.
January 6, 2026: If the Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Tariffs, What Are His Options?
I count seven options Trump is likely to try. There are serious problems with all of them.
