Job openings have leveled off but the data is suspect.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report from the BLS shows the labor market continues to weaken.
Job Openings
- The number and rate of job openings were little changed at 7.4 million and 4.4 percent, respectively, in June.
- The number of job openings decreased in accommodation and food services (-308,000), health care and social assistance (-244,000), and finance and insurance (-142,000).
- The number of job openings increased in retail trade (+190,000), information (+67,000), and state and local government education (+61,000).
Hires
- In June, the number and rate of hires were little changed at 5.2 million and 3.3 percent, respectively.
- The number of hires decreased in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-42,000).
Separations
Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
- The number and rate of total separations in June were little changed at 5.1 million and 3.2 percent, respectively. Total separations decreased in state and local government education (-39,000) and in federal government (-20,000).
- In June, the number of quits was little changed at 3.1 million. The rate of quits remained unchanged at 2.0 percent. The number of quits decreased in professional and business services (-114,000), state and local government education (-20,000), and federal government (-5,000)
May 2025 Revisions
- The number of job openings for May was revised down by 57,000 to 7.7 million, the number of hires was revised down by 38,000 to 5.5 million, and the number of total separations was revised down by 29,000 to 5.2 million.
- Within separations, the number of quits was revised down by 23,000 to 3.3 million, and the number of layoffs and discharges was revised up by 10,000 to 1.6 million.
Job Openings Per Unemployed Person
Job Openings vs Unemployment
Suspect Data
Job openings are very suspect. The survey response rates is about 34 percent
Response Rates and Survival Bias Issues
- First, firms that go out of business don’t respond. This is known as survival bias.
- Second, larger businesses are more likely to have someone who routinely answers such questions.
- Third, businesses of all sizes are deciding they have better things to do than answer BLS surveys.
- Fourth, businesses that are doing well are more likely to spend the time than businesses that are struggling or understaffed
The Unemployment Level is suspect too. Response rates are low, and given deportation concerns. who wants to answer the phone or respond to surveys?
The trends are likely somewhat accurate but the numbers are bogus.
Major BLS Errors
Every month, economists and the Fed rely on very poor BLS monthly data to make decisions despite major modeling errors, data collection errors, and survival bias issues by the BLS.
The lagging QCEW and BEDS quarterly reports highlight the flaws.
QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing
On June 16, I noted QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing
The discrepancy between QCEW and the BLS jobs report is rising.
The QCEW consists of 12.2 million establishments in the first quarter of 2024. The BLS nonfarm payroll report has a sample size of 629,000 individual worksites in 2024.
The nonfarm payroll response rate is 42.6 percent with the same issues as with JOLTS.
We find out more on Friday what the BLS says.
