A case can be made for all three. But there’s a clear winner.
Whole Latta Riggin’ Going On
Trump says the Friday’s job numbers were rigged.
By implication, if the “rigging” on Friday for July was lower, then the rigging for May and June was higher.
With a hat tip to Jerry Lee Lewis, there’s a Whole Latta Riggin’ Going On
Monthly Revisions
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000
- The change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000.
- With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported.
Would Trump have been happy had the BLS reported 19,000 jobs in May and 14,000 in June?
I suspect not.
To make Trump look particularly bad conspiracy theorists would have you believe May and June were revised higher so that could all be taken away in July.
And of course the BLS rigged all the numbers last year higher for Biden.
Competing Rigging Theories
- Somehow with all this rigging going on, for many months, with thousands of BLS personal collecting data, everyone of them is in on the scam. They take orders from the man at the top, and 100 percent of them are Biden loyalist cheats, so no one will yap.
- Trump, as usual, blames anyone but himself.
The Case for Cause
The BLS legitimately needs an overhaul.
Many of us saw this coming because of the difference between Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) and payrolls.
The BLS procedures are 4 decades old and need revision. The American Statistical Association has criticized the BLS procedures.
The BLS Birth-Death model is garbage.
There’s a case for cause, if by cause you mean finding a better person to modernize BLS procedures, models, and data collection processes.
But let’s be honest about two things. First, revamping the BLS will cost money. The same with the Social Security Administration. And Trump-DOGE wants to brag about firing workers.
Second, this is not about cause, this is a clear case of shoot the messenger.
Statisticians Blast Trump Over BLS Firing
Despite being critical of some BLS methods, Statisticians Blast Trump Over BLS Firing.
“The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau,” Beach wrote in a Friday post on the social media platform X.
Statement on Commissioner McEntarfer’s Removal
Please consider a Statement on Commissioner McEntarfer’s Removal
The President seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news. The Commissioner does not determine what the numbers are but simply reports on what the data show. The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference. The BLS uses the same proven, transparent, reliable process to produce estimates every month. Every month, BLS revises the prior two months’ employment estimates to reflect slower-arriving, more-accurate information.
This rationale for firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit and undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making by businesses, families, and policymakers. U.S. official statistics are the gold standard globally. When leaders of other nations have politicized economic data, it has destroyed public trust in all official statistics and in government science.
BLS operates as a federal statistical agency and is afforded autonomy to ensure the data it releases are as accurate as possible. To politicize the work of the agency and its workers does a great disservice not only to BLS but to the entire federal statistical system which this country has relied on for almost 150 years. We stand firmly behind the BLS, Commissioner McEntarfer, and the data they work hard to produce.
Key Point
“The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference.”
Trump wants you to believe hundreds if not thousands of people are in on the scheme and they are all silent.
The Cults sucks it up as if that makes sense.
My Dealings with the BLS
I do not defend the antiquated procedures of the BLS. I have been writing about the flaws for years.
Yet, I can say that in all my conversations with BLS technicians (dozens over the years), I have found BLS personal to be knowledgeable, courteous, and helpful.
Moreover, the BLS personal agree with me on some of the flaws. This is a real conversation I had a few years back.
A Real Mish Conversation with the BLS
Mish: Why don’t you look at the all data and weed out duplicate social security numbers?
BLS: We want to, but we don’t have access to the data we need.
Mish: What?
BLS: We don’t have access to the data because we are not allowed to look at Social Security numbers.
Mish: Can’t you do a sort-merge that just counts duplicates without looking at the actual numbers?
BLS: We are not allowed for security reasons.
Birth-Death Model
I have also talked with the BLS about their Birth-Death model. They know it’s flawed. Everyone knows its flawed.
But they do not have the budget to fix it.
And why doesn’t the BLS seasonally adjust the QCEW numbers?
I don’t know for sure (budget issues perhaps), but I sure know they should.
It’s the best way to make accurate comparisons between the monthly jobs data and the quarterly data.
QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing
I discussed seasonal adjustments of QCEW on June 16, 2025 in QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing
I do not have a way to seasonally adjust QCEW, but I do have permission from John “Jake” Bush at Piper Sandler & Co. to post his seasonally-adjusted QCEW data.
QCEW vs Nonfarm Payrolls Seasonally Adjusted
It is beyond my means to seasonally adjust the QCEW. But it is not beyond the means for the BLS or those with access to expensive data packages.
Anyone with a reasonable understanding of the data could take a quick glance at the above chart to see major revisions were coming.
QCEW vs Nonfarm Payrolls
QCEW data is 95 percent of the data with about a 90 percent response rate. Responding is mandatory.
According to AI, the Monthly jobs report is about 30 percent of the data with a 45 percent response rate.
Struggling businesses are less likely to respond. Small businesses are less likely to despond. And businesses that went out of business don’t respond.
The BLS attempts to make up for this with a birth-death model that is guaranteed wrong at major turns.
The BLS should update its birth-death model more frequently based on Business Employment Dynamics (BED – a large subset of QCEW data). But it doesn’t.
Business Employment Dynamics
I discussed BED vs Birth-Death on August 1 in Birth-Death Model Analysis Suggests 979,000 Overstatement of Jobs
The BLS released Business Employment Dynamics for 2024 yesterday. Let’s discuss.
The BLS should generate seasonally adjusted birth-death numbers but it doesn’t.
Importantly, BED and QCEW reports are private payrolls. Nonfarm payroll data includes government jobs.
Curiously, the monthly BLS job reports includes wage and hour worked for private employees, but the BLS does not report private payroll data. It does provide private “employment” numbers monthly but that’s from the household survey.
Massive Number of Flaws
I do not defend the BLS flaws. Heck, in my conversations with them, they don’t either.
To fix this will take money. But Trump really doesn’t what this fixed does he? He just wants better numbers.
Politicizing the BLS is the presumed big risk. Yet, my “competing theories” analysis applies to Trump as well, changing one word:
“Somehow with all this rigging going on, for many months, with thousands of BLS personal collecting data, everyone of them is in on the scam. They take orders from the man at the top, and 100 percent of them are Biden Trump loyalist cheats, so no one will yap.”
Sorry Cultists and conspiracy theorists, the data is not rigged. And don’t pee your panties because it won’t be under Trump either (or someone will point it out).
Regardless, Trump’s tariffs ensure it will get worse. I expect many small businesses will go under. Trump has only himself to blame.
