In my three decades as an economist—including 15 years as Chief Analyst for Emerging Markets at Danske Bank—I’ve seen some truly bizarre economic episodes.
I’ve watched Argentina default on its debt. I’ve analysed Turkey’s monetary policy madness under Erdoğan. I’ve observed Venezuela’s descent into hyperinflation. But what happened today in the United States might top them all.
This morning (US time), President Donald Trump fired the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika McEntarfer, because he didn’t like the jobs numbers. Let that sink in. The leader of the world’s largest economy, the issuer of the global reserve currency, just sacked his top statistician for doing her job.
This is one of the most insane thing I’ve witnessed in my entire career.
The Numbers That Should Have Set Off Alarm Bells
The U.S. employment report for July 2025 should indeed be setting off alarm bells in the White House—but for entirely different reasons than Trump imagines.
The BLS delivered numbers that not only show weak job creation but revealed that for months we’ve been living under an illusion about the labour market’s strength.
July brought only 73,000 new non-farm jobs, with the private sector contributing a meagre 52,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2 percent. But what’s truly striking are the massive revisions: May was slashed from +144,000 to +19,000 jobs. June from +147,000 to +14,000 jobs.
These are NOT minor adjustments. We’re talking about 258,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. The BLS itself calls the revisions “larger than normal”—a rare admission from an agency that typically uses understated language.
Within hours of this sobering report, Trump took to Truth Social with a deranged rant, accusing McEntarfer of having “faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory.” He ordered her immediate termination, declaring she would be “replaced with someone much more competent and qualified.”
America’s Authoritarian Turn
This isn’t just about economic statistics. It’s about the systematic dismantling of American democracy’s checks and balances. One by one, the institutions that have safeguarded American democracy are being shot down.
We’ve watched Trump attack the judiciary when rulings go against him. We’ve seen him undermine the intelligence community when their assessments contradict his worldview. He’s waged war on the media as “enemies of the people.” And now he’s destroying the credibility of federal statistics because they don’t support his narrative.
This is how democracies die – not in dramatic coups, but through the gradual erosion of institutional independence.
Each fired official, each attacked institution, each norm violated moves America further down an authoritarian path. Today’s firing isn’t an isolated incident; it’s part of a pattern that should terrify anyone who values democratic governance.
The Real Story: A Labour Market in Clear Deceleration
Looking at the actual data that triggered Trump’s rage, the pattern is undeniable: The U.S. labour market has slowed substantially. We now have enough data points to conclude this isn’t a statistical fluke.
Most concerning is the trend in private employment. Job growth in the sector that actually drives the economy has practically stalled throughout 2025. Government jobs don’t create American prosperity. When the private sector stops creating jobs, it’s a clear warning sign.
The numbers don’t necessarily indicate recession. But they tell of an economy that has lost its breath. Most worrying is the timing—the slowdown is occurring before the full effects of Trump’s tariff increases have hit. When businesses truly feel those effects, we should expect further weakening.
But instead of addressing these legitimate economic concerns, Trump shoots the messenger.
Why This Is Worse Than Any Emerging Market Crisis
During my years at Danske Bank analysing emerging markets, I became intimately familiar with data manipulation and authoritarian interference. I remember when Christina Kirchner’s government in Argentina essentially hijacked INDEC, the national statistics institute, because they didn’t like the inflation numbers.
But here’s the crucial difference: everyone expected this from Argentina. It was a country with weak institutions and a history of authoritarian interruptions to democracy. The United States is—or was—different. The US’s checks and balances were supposed to prevent exactly this kind of abuse.
That’s what makes today’s events so shocking. We’re watching the world’s oldest continuous democracy adopt the playbook of tin-pot dictatorships. The guardrails that were supposed to protect American institutions from political interference have failed.
The Banana Republic Playbook
What’s most disturbing is how familiar this feels. In my years covering emerging markets, I’ve seen this movie before. Economic data turns negative, populist leader blames the messenger, independent officials get fired.
During my time analysing Turkey, I watched Erdoğan systematically dismantle every institution that challenged his authority. Central bank governors, statisticians, judges—anyone who wouldn’t bend to his will was purged. Each firing moved Turkey further from democracy and deeper into authoritarianism.
Now we’re watching the same drama in Washington. Trump’s simultaneous attack on Fed Chair Jerome Powell—saying he should be “put out to pasture”—shows this isn’t about one bad jobs report. It’s about crushing any institution that maintains independence from presidential control.
The Death of Checks and Balances
The American founders understood that concentrating power in one person’s hands leads to tyranny. That’s why they created a system of checks and balances – independent institutions that could constrain executive power.
But what happens when those institutions are systematically attacked and undermined? When inspectors general are fired for investigating corruption? When the Justice Department becomes a tool of presidential vengeance? When federal statistics become subject to political approval?
You get authoritarianism with American characteristics. Not the crude military dictatorship of a banana republic, but a sophisticated dismantling of democratic norms while maintaining the facade of constitutional government.
The Mechanics of Statistical Credibility
The accusation that McEntarfer “faked” the numbers is preposterous to anyone who understands how the BLS operates. This is a career civil servant with over 20 years in government, confirmed by the Senate 86-8 just last year.
The Bureau employs hundreds of economists and statisticians who follow rigorous methodologies developed over decades. This isn’t some black box where numbers can be manipulated at will. It’s a professional statistical agency operating according to international best practices.
But in Trump’s authoritarian worldview, expertise is subordinate to loyalty. Professional integrity is less important than political convenience. Truth itself becomes negotiable when it conflicts with the leader’s narrative.
A Personal Reflection
I’ve spent my career analysing the economic consequences of institutional failure. I’ve seen how quickly things can unravel when democratic norms erode and authoritarian tendencies take hold. But I never imagined I’d see it happen in the United States.
In 30 years of watching economies and institutions evolve, nothing has been more surreal than witnessing American democracy’s checks and balances fail in real time. Each norm violated, each institution corrupted, each official fired for doing their job – it all adds up to a fundamental transformation of American governance.
The foundation of both democracy and capitalism is trust. Trust in institutions. Trust in data. Trust in the rule of law. Today, another pillar of that trust was demolished.
We’re watching the United States transform from the world’s leading democracy into something darker, more authoritarian, more arbitrary. And the most insane part? It’s all happening in plain sight, one fired official at a time.
