I don’t know what the odds of success are, but I am in favor of a peace deal.
Clashing Objectives
The problem with a summit between all the parties is Putin, Ukraine, Europe, and Trump all have hugely clashing objectives.
Trump was wise to narrow this summit down to himself and Putin. Still, that’s difficult enough.
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump, Putin Head to High-Stakes Alaska Summit With Clashing Objectives
By meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, President Trump is hoping to forge in person what he hasn’t been able to accomplish by phone—a partnership with the Kremlin leader to end the war in Ukraine.
Putin is coming to Alaska with a very different goal: keeping in Trump’s good graces while pursuing his longer-term ambition of reasserting Moscow’s dominance over Kyiv.
Their high-stakes talks at a military base on the outskirts of Anchorage will prove a revealing test of wills over which of the two presidents will back down, even if only temporarily, to avoid a breakdown in relations that neither seems to want.
After initially playing down the summit as a “feel-out meeting,” Trump in recent days has said he would urge Putin to accept a cease-fire in Ukraine, seeking to jump-start long-stalled negotiations.
If Putin agrees, Trump says he will bring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into the talks, potentially flying him to Alaska for in-depth conversations about a longer term peace agreement involving territorial concessions, security guarantees for Ukraine, and U.S. arm sales to Kyiv.
Should Putin balk, Trump is threatening Moscow with “very severe consequences,” possibly including sanctions on major buyers of Russian oil, such as China. The U.S. could also decide to withdraw from the peace process altogether, he said, leaving Moscow and Kyiv to continue the conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands of people.
Trump Would Walk
ABC News reports Trump says he ‘would walk’ if Putin meeting doesn’t go well.
President Donald Trump told Fox News that if his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t go well, “I would walk.”
“Heading in, what’s your initial feeling? How are you feeling about what you’re going to get out of this?” Fox News’ Bret Baier asked Trump.
“I think we’re going to do very well. Our country is doing very well. We’re setting records economically like we never have before, including the stock markets are all at record high. We’re taking in trillions and trillions of dollars with tariffs. We’re going for a meeting with President Putin in Alaska, and I think it’s going to work out very well. And if it doesn’t, I’m gonna head back home real fast,” Trump said.
Conflicting Goals
On the surface, Trump’s line of talk “I would walk” makes little sense because Putin would be happy if Trump walked.
Trump has threatened Putin many times before with “severe consequences” only to deliver nothing, so why should Putin believe otherwise now?
Trump’s problem is he wants the war to end, but much of his base does not want Trump to give more weapons to Ukraine.
This is why Trump has backed down from all of his threats.
The Oil Threat
Trump threatens sanctions on Russian oil. So what? China will buy that oil and so will India.
China holds the cards here because if Trump raises tariffs, China can withhold rare earth minerals the US desperately needs.
Trump’s oil threat is an idle one, and Putin has to know that.
ABC Update
Ahead of Friday’s high-stakes meeting, President Donald Trump said that he wants to see a ceasefire negotiated or “I’m not going to be happy.”
“But I want to see a ceasefire rapidly,” Trump said. “I don’t know if it’s going to be today, but I’m not going to be happy if it’s not today,” Trump said on Air Force One.
“Everyone said it can’t be today, but I’m just saying, I want the killing to stop. I’m in this to stop the killing,” Trump continued.
Trump is in this to “stop the killing”.
I am all for that. Best wishes Mr. President.
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