By Mohamed Okash
Economies globally are intensifying their efforts to combat climate change, with many focusing on renewable energy to power their green transitions and achieve net-zero emissions.
However, in fragile and climate-vulnerable states such as Somalia, these stakes aren’t just about survival and sustainability; they are one of the most effective pathways to reverse environmental degradation, reduce poverty and drive growth and transformation.
Somalia’s energy story is at a juncture: it has an installed capacity of approximately 400 megawatts (MW), with 300 MW powered by diesel and 100 MW by solar and wind.
Today, about 80% of urban households and only around 24% of rural communities have access to electricity, according to World Bank data. This brings the national average to just about 50% overall, highlighting the significant disparities that persist between urban and rural populations
Nomadic populations remain critically underserved, with less than 9% having reliable access. For those that do, power is among the most expensive in the world, costing between $0.40 and $1.00 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), several times higher than the African average.
At the same time, 80% of Somalia’s energy consumption for cooking still comes from biomass fuels, which accelerates deforestation and biodiversity loss.
Yet, Somalia is also one of Africa’s richest countries in renewable potential. With solar irradiance averaging 5–7 kWh/m²/day and strong coastal wind corridors, the country could leapfrog directly to a cleaner, more resilient energy future if the right investments in infrastructure, regulatory frameworks and guarantees are mobilised.
Abundant untapped potential
Like many least-developed countries, Somalia still meets most of its energy needs through charcoal, firewood and other biomass fuels, which has devastating consequences. Trees are felled at an unsustainable pace, biodiversity is lost and carbon emissions rise, all while households remain locked in energy poverty.
In parallel, Somalia is becoming increasingly integrated into the global trade system. But instead of importing green technologies, its markets are flooded with final consumer goods and carbon-intensive products. This leads to a paradox: a country with almost no industrial emissions is still experiencing rising environmental degradation.
In a recent peer-reviewed study, my co-authors and I analysed the long-term effects of renewable energy, trade, globalisation and economic growth on environmental quality in Somalia from 1990 to 2019. The results were striking.
A 1% increase in renewable energy use results in a 7.4% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in the long run. This is not just a statistical correlation; it is a clear indication that investing in solar, wind, and other renewables could fundamentally place Somalia on the path of increased energy access and green transition.
By contrast, other forces are pushing in the wrong direction. Trade openness, in its current form, is associated with higher emissions in the short and long term.
Somalia’s trade flows remain dominated by fossil fuel imports and carbon-intensive goods, with too little emphasis on clean technologies or green supply chains. Similarly, greater integration into global markets, while offering economic opportunities, has tended to increase emissions over time, reflecting a lack of environmental safeguards in cross-border economic activity.
Somalia’s renewable energy potential is more than an untapped resource. It is the country’s most reliable tool for reducing emissions while realising the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
However, for this potential to be realized, renewable expansion must go in step with greener trade policies, cleaner investment flows and growth strategies that break the link between prosperity and pollution.
Transformation en route
Progress is underway in the country’s major cities. The private sector has pioneered mini-grids and hybrid systems that combine solar energy, battery storage with diesel, reducing tariffs for commercial and industrial consumers to as low as $0.25–$0.40 per kilowatt-hour (kWh).
Industrial consumers in Ethiopia pay about $0.06/kWh, while in Kenya the average rate is around $0.15/kWh. This cost disadvantage continues to limit Somalia’s capacity to scale up domestic production and attract energy-intensive industries.
Renewable energy intermittency means diesel is still needed as backup in most hybrid systems. The Electricity Act remains incomplete; the National Electricity Authority is not yet operational, and frameworks for independent power producers and technical standards are pending. Financing is another bottleneck with limited local capacities.
Somalia has submitted its third-generation nationally determined contributions (NDC 3.0), outlining its goals under the Paris Agreement. The country has also launched its National Transformation Plan (2025–2029), which aims to increase electricity access to 60% by 2029 and significantly reduce its dependency on diesel.
Meanwhile, Vision 2060 places universal access to affordable, reliable and sustainable energy at the heart of Somalia’s centennial development goals. These national priorities share a common understanding that renewable energy is not only a climate action tool but also a foundation for socioeconomic transformation, poverty reduction and inclusive growth.
However, Somalia’s current reliance on fossil fuels and imports undermines efforts to achieve these goals.
Our findings offer a clear signal to policymakers: scaling renewable energy is Somalia’s most viable, evidence-backed strategy to improve environmental outcomes and future-proof its development.
The case for urgency is twofold. First, climate impacts are already exacerbating the fragilities in Somalia; prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall and floods are disrupting livelihoods and pushing millions into displacement.
Second, global momentum is shifting. The Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, made at the 2023 UN Climate Conference in Dubai (COP28), alongside international climate finance commitments, offers a window of opportunity for fragile states like Somalia to secure investment and technology transfer for reducing energy poverty.
Clean energy pioneer
The recently held Sustainable Development Impact Meetings and Africa Climate Week, the upcoming 2025 UN Climate Conference in Brazil (COP30), and the recently held Africa Climate Week offer timely opportunities for fragile and climate-vulnerable countries to reshape the narrative.
Somalia can best position itself as a clean energy pioneer not by matching high-emitting countries in scale but by leading in resilience, innovation and strategic foresight.
The data make it clear: renewables aren’t just environmentally sound; they’re also economically and socially transformative. For Somalia, betting big on clean power may be the smartest and most achievable development decision of this decade.
Mohamed Okash is the Founding Director of the Institute of Climate and Environment (ICE Institute) at SIMAD University,
First published in the World Economic Forum.
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