The Oscars are never predictable, but there are certain movies that fit the Academy’s archetype so neatly that it’s easy to assume they’ll make it into the lineup before anybody has even watched them. This year’s Oscar race is shaping up nicely, with some very strong contenders for Best Picture emerging already – but there’s still room for more.
This year’s festival circuit is coming to a close with the ongoing London Film Festival, which means that most of this year’s big Oscar contenders have already been screened to critics, even if they haven’t been widely released yet. This has allowed experts to forge a pretty secure image of what the Best Picture lineup could look like.
However, the race is far from over. There are several movies still to come in 2025 that won’t be having a festival debut at all. This means audiences (and critics) will have to wait until the wide release to discern whether they pose a viable threat at Best Picture. Year after year, this shakes up the lineup very drastically.
8
Eternity
Eternity might not seem like a major Oscars player from a distance, but there’s every possibility that this upcoming rom-com exceeds expectations and sparks a late campaign for the Academy Awards. The film stars Elizabeth Olsen, Miles Teller, and Callum Turner, and centers around an unusual love triangle in the afterlife.
The Oscars typically haven’t been kind towards comedies, but that’s been changing a lot over the past years. The historic victory of Everything Everywhere All At Once is very recent proof of this. There will be obstacles that Eternity needs to overcome, but David Freyne’s screenplay is exceptionally strong, and A24 runs a solid campaign, anything is possible.
7
The Housemaid
The Housemaid is another movie that doesn’t innately feel like a Best Picture candidate, but it ultimately comes down to the quality of Paul Feig’s writing and the strength of Amanda Seyfriend & Sydney Sweeney’s lead performances. If they’re as impressive as both actresses have proven they can be in the past, the movie could be a hit.
It also helps that The Housemaid has a prime Christmas release date. This makes it even more likely that general audiences will see the movie in theaters, and if it’s good, potentially get a word-of-mouth campaign started. December is the ideal time for this — it’s far enough away from the festival circuit but close enough to the Oscars ceremony to count.
6
Song Sung Blue
It’s no secret that the Oscars love a biopic, and there’s no shortage this year. Whether it’s Dwayne Johnson’s transformative role as MMA fighter Mark Kerr in The Smashing Machine or Jeremy Allen White’s bold interpretation of Bruce Springsteen in Deliver Me From Nowhere, the biopic roles this year have been in abundance.
It’s going to be tough to break through the competition, but Song Sung Blue has an outside shot at being a real crowd-pleasing success over the holiday period. The film stars Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson as two amateur musicians who rise to prominence throughout the ’80s after starting a Neil Diamond tribute band.
Song Sung Blue definitely seems like a more lighthearted and audience-friendly biopic, which could help its chances at the Oscars. It may not have the audacious, transformative performances that other biopics will be using to their advantage, but the pure charm of this late-year release could be enough to propel it to the Oscars.
5
The Running Man
Image via Paramount Pictures
The Running Man seems like it has all the ingredients to be a huge success. It’s directed by Edgar Wright, it stars Glen Powell as the lead, and it’s based on an acclaimed novel by Stephen King. However, the film’s lack of festival presence and Wright’s poor Oscars track record have many fans worried about its chances with the Academy.
It’s admittedly hard to say whether The Running Man will be an Oscars player or not, but the film’s initial trailer seems like exactly the kind of lively, energetic action movie that general audiences will enjoy. And if viewers champion the film enough, the Academy will have no choice but to give it some representation at the awards.
4
Keeper
The Academy typically has a bias against horror, but 2025 could finally be the year to change that. We’ve seen such an abundance of brilliant, original horror movies this year, from Sinners to Weapons, that the Oscars have no choice but to recognize the genre at last. And if Keeper turns out to be great, that could be added.
Oz Perkins’ horror career has been somewhat hit-or-miss. 2024’s Longlegs was an immediate success, and there was even some Oscar buzz for Nicolas Cage when the movie originally came out. The Monkey was far less beloved, but Perkins’ technical prowess still shines through an otherwise neglected plot.
Keeper could land on either side of this spectrum, but it’s ultimately unwise to bet against Perkins at this stage of his career. He’s an incredibly versatile talent whose voice is very unique within the horror genre, and Keeper seems like a great catalyst for that.
3
Ella McCay
Every year, experts are sure they’ve got the Best Picture lineup nailed down – and every year, something comes along in November or December to completely shake up their predictions. These tend to be quieter, more nuanced dramas that fly under the radar initially but get championed by critics upon their release.
Ella McCay definitely feels like it could play that role this year. The film stars Emma Mackay as a young politician who finds herself elected as the governor of her hometown, who then struggles to balance her political career with the relationships in her personal life. It seems like a very sweet and uplifting comedy that could really play well.
2
Wicked: For Good
Ever since Wicked took the world by storm last year and landed several Oscar nominations as a result, most experts have simply taken it for granted that Wicked: For Good will replicate that success.
Cynthia Erivo has planted herself firmly in the Best Actress race, while Ariana Grande seems like a lock for Best Supporting Actress – and nobody has even seen the film yet.
This is both a testament to the quality of 2024’s Wicked and a demonstration of the faith that the entire industry has in Jon M. Chu to bring this story to a satisfying conclusion with Wicked: For Good. There’s no reason to believe this will be any less successful than the original, and the sequel’s trailers look very promising.
1
Avatar: Fire & Ash
If there’s one movie for which it makes sense to go all-in without seeing the finished product, it’s Avatar: Fire & Ash. James Cameron has a brilliant track record at the Oscars with this franchise – both previous movies were nominated for Best Picture – and there’s no reason to believe Fire & Ash will break that trend.
Even if it somehow misses Best Picture, Fire & Ash is almost guaranteed to find itself nominated in several below-the-line categories, such as Best Sound or Best Visual Effects. The amount of technical progression that Cameron has facilitated through the Avatar films is staggering, and it’s only right that he continues to receive acknowledgment at the Oscars for this.
8/10
- Location
-
Los Angeles, CA
- Dates
-
March 15, 2026
- Website
-
https://www.oscars.org/
