Too Many Best Picture Contenders

Netflix has turned itself into a perennial Oscars powerhouse over the last several years. But, they are still chasing their first Best Picture victory after Emilia Pérez‘s controversies derailed its frontrunner status, leaving the streamer 0-10 with nominations in the category.

Thanks to a mixture of original productions and acquisitions from film festivals, Netflix has multiple movies vying for Oscars contention in 2026. KPop Demon Hunters‘ popularity should propel it to multiple nominations, and likely at least one win. Rian Johnson’s Wake Up Dead Man also hopes to contend in the screenplay category, and possibly more.

But new films from Kathryn Bigelow, Guillermo del Toro, Noah Baumbach, and Clint Bentley have been viewed as awards contenders for months. That puts Netflix in a difficult spot as the FYC portion of campaigning begins to heat up, as they need to figure out which movie to put the majority of its attention and money behind.

Netflix Has Too Many Best Picture Contenders To Support Them All

Once Netflix acquired Train Dreams out of Sundance at the start of 2025, the rave response and involvement of major stars — Joel Egerton, Oscar-nominee Felicity Jones, and Oscar-winner William H. Macy — as well as a script from Oscar-nominee Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing) made it look like an early contender.

But, it was added to a slate on paper that was already quite impressive. A House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly, and Frankenstein had historical reasons to think they’d be major Oscar contenders. Then there’s Wake Up Dead Man, Nouvelle Vague, and Ballad of a Small Player that had hopes of recognition too.

As the fall festival circuit took shape, Ballad of a Small Player faltered, while Nouvelle Vague was well-received but didn’t ignite Oscar talks. Wake Up Dead Man may earn some love, but it’s a long shot to get in the Best Picture mix, it seems. That has left Netflix with A House of Dynamite, Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, and Train Dreams.

A House of Dynamite and Jay Kelly seemed to solidify their places after they premiered at Venice. So much so that I thought they were Netflix’s best bets for a Best Picture nomination, which is why I put them both in my Oscars 2026 Best Picture predictions.

Meanwhile, Frankenstein, which also premiered at Venice, had a colder launch, creating some hesitancy about its true contender status. Instead of being left for dead, though, its campaign was revived at TIFF by being the runner-up of the People’s Choice Award. The appreciation for it has continued to grow ahead of its Netflix launch on November 7.

As a result, Netflix’s leaderboard keeps changing. A House of Dynamite is no longer thought of as a shoo-in for many nominations, weakening its Best Picture contention status. An argument could even be made that Bigelow’s movie should be fourth in terms of Netflix’s priorities. At the very least, Frankenstein has moved ahead of it.

It’ll be interesting to see how Train Dreams and Jay Kelly‘s full releases shake this up further. The former is more beloved and fits the Oscar mold, but the latter is the bigger title with more recognizable names: Baumbach, George Clooney, Adam Sandler, Laura Dern, etc.

While Netflix running campaigns for all four movies makes sense given the high-profile talent attached to each, they all can’t be contenders. The streamer needs to consolidate its focus and campaign money to more fully back two, or maybe three, titles. With A House of Dynamite losing some steam, that decision could be a bit easier.

Netflix backing Jay Kelly and Frankenstein primarily may bring them the most nominations and keep big names happy. But the chances of either winning Best Picture are unlikely. Perhaps they should really prioritize Train Dreams and hope the emotional drama really catches on with Oscars voters.

ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:

8/10

Location

Los Angeles, CA

Dates

March 15, 2026

Website

https://www.oscars.org/