Oscars 2026 Best Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner

As the awards season ramps up, Best Actress looks like one of the most stacked categories at the Oscars 2026, making it even trickier to predict. But after Mikey Madison’s win last year, I’m happy to once again track this race and see how it unfolds, giving you ScreenRant‘s predictions for the category.

A year after the back-and-forth battle between Madison (Anora) and Demi Moore (The Substance), figuring out who the frontrunner is for Best Actress in 2026 may vary on the week. There’s a great wealth of extraordinary performances for the Academy to reward, including former winners, nominees, and those hoping for their first nomination.

This is a race that is still very much evolving, as some of the best movies of 2025 are finally arriving and giving people a chance to see performances that have been raved about since the festival circuit began. This includes the likes of Rose Byrne’s work in If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You and Emma Stone’s performance in Bugonia, which have been central to the discussion so far.

As the rest of the year plays out and award precursors heat up, the true contenders will be sorted out from now through January 22, 2026, when nominations are announced. Here’s how I see it right now, but keep checking back, as I will be updating this as the Oscars season continues to unfold.

Commentary and predictions updated October 30

The Best Actress Nomination Frontrunners

With a bit more uncertainty surrounding this race right now, we really have to lean on early reactions, a film’s overall Oscars potential, and history to help inform our decision. Here is my current Oscars 2026 Best Actress nominations prediction:

Predicting a nomination for Cynthia Erivo feels safe after she secured one for Wicked last year. Even without having seen the sequel, early reactions are already praising her work and putting her in a strong spot to contend once more.

The darker and more emotional story for Elphaba might make Erivo’s performance even better, giving her a greater shot at winning. If the Academy goes hard for Wicked: For Good, she and Ariana Grande (in Best Supporting Actress) could both walk away as winners, even.

Emma Stone’s position in the category has slid somewhat. The reaction to her performance out of Venice was superb, and while the consensus about her work has not changed, Yorgos Lanthimos’ movie does not appear to be as wide of an awards contender as The Favourite or Poor Things, which got Stone a Best Supporting Actress nomination and Best Actress win, respectively.

A point in her favor: Stone is adored in Hollywood and has had plenty of success with the Academy overall. She previously won the category for La La Land, and her win for Poor Things surprised even her, as Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) was the presumed favorite. If there’s any uncertainty about who should get in, she can edge out other competition.

Jessie Buckley is also in a strong position thanks to Hamnet. Chloé Zhao’s movie is a Best Picture frontrunner, and her performance as William Shakespeare’s wife Agnes is a big reason why. Buckley is a previous Oscar nominee, too, thanks to The Lost Daughter three years ago, so voters are very familiar with her.

She’s started to earn recognition for her performance too, as she was a Gotham Awards nominee for Outstanding Lead Performance.

There is a good chance that Renate Reinsve makes it in for Sentimental Value, too. She dazzled audiences who saw it at Cannes, just as she did four years ago in Joachim Trier’s The Worst Person in the World. That performance didn’t lead to Oscar recognition, but it feels like this one will. She’s not only seen as a potential nominee, but even someone who could snag the win.

While I previously had Byrne in the top five thanks to the continued support of If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You, the final spot feels more up in the air. Her recent nomination with the Gotham Awards is another sign that people really love what she did in the film, but support for Amanda Seyfried’s performance in The Testament of Ann Lee is rising.

Seyfried is a former Oscar nominee thanks to Mank, which put her in the Best Supporting Actress mix. Her performance in The Testament of Ann Lee was one of the big talking points after the film’s premiere at Venice, and reactions from TIFF echoed praise for her. For now, I’m giving her the edge in the last spot.

Actresses Still In The Mix

Academy voters will have multiple options to recognize actresses who are veterans of the industry or represent the new age. The latter could be how Sydney Sweeney enters the race for Christy or how Chase Infiniti gets in for One Battle After Another.

As for Sweeney, her boxing biopic has been met with mostly positive reviews, but even those who don’t love it — like ScreenRant‘s Rachel Labonte — can’t deny the strength of the transformative role she undertakes. She remains one of Hollywood’s biggest young stars, and it could make sense for the Academy to “anoint” her as such with a nomination.

Then there’s the group of previous Oscar winners hoping to gain more recognition. This includes Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Laura Dern (Is This Thing On?), Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Jodie Foster (A Private Life), and Cate Blanchett (Father Mother Sister Brother).

The lukewarm reception to After the Hunt may have already ended Roberts’ chances of contending more seriously, while Foster and Blanchett need their films to gain a lot more traction to have better hopes. Lawrence was recognized with a Gotham nomination, showing that his could be the role that ends a 10-year Oscar nomination drought.

Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) is another name to keep an eye on. Focus is campaining her here instead of in Best Supporting Actress, and while critics have liked, but not loved, the film, her performance has been praised. Whether she’ll have the support to rise into the top 5 remains to be seen.

As for those hoping for their first Oscar nomination, Lucy Liu (Rosemead), June Squibb (Eleanor the Great), Tessa Thompson (Hedda), and Emma Mackey (Ella McCay) are worth keeping in mind. And again, Byrne’s chances are still very much alive. She and Thompson picked up Gotham nominations to help keep their performances in the discourse.

Chase Infiniti fits into this same class, as Warner Bros. will campaign her in Best Actress instead of in supporting. With her co-stars Regina Hall and Teyana Taylor vying for spots there, the decision helps avoid more competition between the actresses.

The question is whether the Academy will recognize her in her feature film debut, or if she could be snubbed as other One Battle After Another performances get recognition.

Predicted Best Actress Winner

It’s far too early to declare any race in the Oscars over, but it does feel like Best Actress already has a clear frontrunner in Jessie Buckley. Hamnet might be a movie with William Shakespeare, but it’s more focused on Agnes’ perspective. Buckley gives an incredibly emotional performance in the film, based on early reactions, that left many viewers in tears.

That type of response is powerful when it comes to the Oscars. Connecting with voters’ hearts on such a deep level can make her performance unforgettable. That’s why she’s already seen as such a definitive choice to be nominated. And while the other contenders have room to overtake her, this feels like Buckley’s award to lose.

The actress has been on the ascent since her breakout role in 2018’s Wild Rose and has played central roles in a few movies the Oscars recognized since then: The Lost Daughter and Women Talking. As she prepares to take a big swing in 2026 with The Bride!, becoming an Academy Award winner for Hamnet could make next year an unforgettable one for her.

Any of the other four predicted nominees could still pull ahead of her in the months ahead, depending on how the entire season plays out. An argument could be made that she’s peaking too early. Then again, Hamnet​​​​​​’s wide release in November should spark another round of praise to propel her forward.

As of right now, Buckley is my pick for the Oscars 2026 Best Actress winner. Maybe that will change, but maybe it won’t, and she’ll steamroll her way towards the Academy Award.

ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:

8/10

Location

Los Angeles, CA

Dates

March 15, 2026

Website

https://www.oscars.org/