Avatar: Fire & Ash Box Office Predictions: $115 Million Opening Weekend

While there have been times when the box office has struggled mightily this year, 2025 looks to go out on a big high note with the highly-anticipated Avatar: Fire & Ash. Box office forecasters Cinelytic projected Avatar: Fire & Ash to be one of the biggest drivers of the fourth-quarter box office, and it looks to fulfill that promise.

There have only been seven movies in cinematic history to pass the $2 billion worldwide mark. James Cameron has directed three of them — 1997’s Titanic ($2.26 billion), 2009’s Avatar ($2.92 billion) and 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water ($2.34 billion). The director recently defended himself against criticism of spending three decades on the Avatar franchise.

That trio $2 billion hits has paved the way for Cameron himself to become a billionaire, as he looks to add to his fortune with his third Avatar film. Avatar: Fire & Ice opens in more than 3,800 theaters on Friday, and will have no trouble taking the box office crown. Analysts are projecting a debut between $90 million and $105 million, but since most films have been over-performing lately, we’re putting Avatar: Fire & Ash at $115.8 million.

The Avatar Franchise Is More Known For Longevity Than Big Debuts

James Cameron — more than any other director past or present — has found a way to way to buck box office trends in a consistent fashion. Most movies rely on big splashy debuts while decreasing significantly from week to week before it leaves theaters, anywhere between 10 and 20 weeks after its opening. Take, for example, Avatar: Endgame.

The Marvel Cinematic Universe magnum opus debuted with a tally of $357.1 million that still stands as the opening weekend high water mark more than six years later. However, for the next three weeks it dropped 58.7%, 57.1%, and 52.6% respectively, amassing $771.3 million in the first four weeks.

It would remain in theaters for another 16 weeks, where it didn’t even make another $100 million, ending its run with $858.3 million domestic. Of course, this is all standard for most big-budget studio fare, with second-weekend drops in the 50% range becoming industry standard. However, James Cameron has found a way to buck those trends.

Titanic opened in mid-December 1997 with $28.6 million, taking the top spot at the box office, a position it would not relinquish until April 1998. It spent a whopping 15 weeks in a row atop the box office, the second most all-time behind E.T.‘s 16 weeks.

It was in theaters for 41 weeks, posting unprecedented week-to-week increases in four of its first nine weeks, and never posting a decrease of more than 50% until September 1998, its 38th week in theaters.

Both Avatar films followed similar trends, topping the box office with a solid (yet not earth-shattering) debut, and showcasing its longevity with minimal drops from week to week. Avatar opened to $77 million in December 2009, topping the box office for seven straight weeks, never posting a week-to-week decrease of more than 50% until its 16th frame in April 2010.

13 years later, fans showed up in much bigger numbers on opening weekend for 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water, topped the box office with $134.1 million, also keeping the throne for seven straight weeks. While it continued to post minimal week-to-week drops, the bigger debut lead to a second-weekend drop of 52.8%, though it still had no trouble taking $2.3 billion worldwide and $684 million domestic.

The forecasters at Cinelytic projected another $2 billion worldwide gross for Avatar: Fire & Ash, which seems easily attainable given how fans have turned out repeatedly for the first two movies. It also doesn’t hurt that there will be an Avengers: Doomsday preview attached to prints as well.

The Housemaid, David and Spongebob Squarepants Should Still Put Up Solid Numbers

A massive movie like Avatar: Fire & Ash opening used to mean that opposing studios would steer clear of that date, but that is not the case this year, with three very different counter-programming options available in Lionsgate’s The Housemaid, Angel Studios’ David and Paramount’s The Spongebob Movie: Search for Squarepants.

The Housemaid is an adaptation of Freida McFadden’s 2022 novel of the same name, starring Sydney Sweeney as the title character, who becomes a live-in housemaid for an affluent couple (Amanda Seyfried and Brandon Sklenar). The film from director Paul Feig is eyeing a second place finish this weekend with a predicted tally of $22.6 million.

Angel Studios’ David – an animated kid-friendly rendition of the David vs. Goliath biblical tale – could be the big surprise of the weekend with a third place finish of $20.8 million. The film is a follow-up of the TV series Young David and could very well follow in the faith-based footsteps of Angel’s surprise 2023 hit, Sound of Freedom.

Paramount’s The Spongebob Movie: The Search for Squarepants will be the first big-screen adventure featuring the beloved animated characters from Bikini Bottom since 2015’s The Spongebob Movie: Sponge Out of Water. While that movie opened to $55 million, this one is tracking much lower, with a fourth-place debut of $16.9 million.

Take a look at our predicted top 10 below for the weekend of December 19-21.