Awards season is upon us, and so it’s my pleasure to bring you ScreenRant‘s Best Picture predictions for the Oscars 2026. I’ve been handling these prediction pieces for the last few years, keeping a close eye on the state of the race, and that’s no different as we look for what Academy voters will deem the best movies of 2025.
With Oscar nomination voting closed, nominations will be announced this week, on Thursday, January 22. That means its time for the final round of predictions regarding what movies will be in the Best Picture race.
Commentary and predictions updated on January 19
The Best Picture Nomination Frontrunners
Here are my final Oscars 2026 Best Picture nominations predictions, factoring in the response to the films so far, their festival premieres, and general momentum.
|
Rank |
Movie |
Release Date |
Distributor |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1) |
One Battle After Another |
September 26, 2025 |
Warner Bros. |
|
2) |
Sinners |
April 18, 2025 |
Warner Bros. |
|
3) |
Hamnet |
December 12, 2025 |
Focus Features |
|
4) |
Marty Supreme |
December 25, 2025 |
A24 |
|
5) |
Frankenstein |
November 7, 2025 |
Netflix |
|
6) |
Sentimental Value |
November 7, 2025 |
Neon |
|
7) |
The Secret Agent |
November 26, 2025 |
Neon |
|
8) |
Bugonia |
October 31, 2025 |
Focus Features |
|
9) |
Train Dreams |
November 21, 2025 |
Netflix |
|
10) |
It Was Just an Accident |
October 15, 2025 |
Neon |
Awards season has locked in a safe six group of nominees in this category. One Battle After Another, Sinners, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Frankenstein, and Sentimental Value are all locked into a nomination, and it would be stunning if any of these six were left out here.
The Secret Agent and Bugonia both jump back into my predicted nominees here after strong showings at various precursors, including the former’s wins at the Golden Globes and the latter’s large presence with the BAFTA longlists.
Netflix should get its second nominee of the year with Train Dreams, while Neon may secure its third with It Was Just an Accident. The latter has lost some of the stronger position it had months ago, making it possible that it will miss the cut thanks to any of the following films.
Movies Still In The Mix
Those 10 movies are far from the only titles that are in contention for Best Picture. There is a wide pack of other films with varying levels of opportunities to enter the race and move up into the previous section, knocking others down to here.
|
Movie |
Release Date |
Distributor |
|---|---|---|
|
Avatar: Fire and Ash |
December 19, 2025 |
20th Century Studios |
|
F1: The Movie |
June 27, 2025 |
Apple Studios |
|
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You |
October 10, 2025 |
A24 |
|
Jay Kelly |
December 5, 2025 |
Netflix |
|
No Other Choice |
TBD |
Neon |
|
Song Sung Blue |
December 25, 2025 |
Focus Features |
|
The Testament of Ann Lee |
December 25, 2025 |
Searchlight Pictures |
|
Wicked: For Good |
November 21, 2025 |
Universal Pictures |
Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good are both predicted misses right now, as Academy voters may feel less inclined to include these blockbusters thanks to how popular films like One Battle After Another and Sinners were with audiences. I won’t be fully shocked, though, if either sneaks in as the 10th nominee.
There’s also a chance that F1 could be the choice if a blockbuster does get in. Otherwise, the remaining films may snag a surprise nomination should they each have stronger showings overall than currently predicted.
Predicted Best Picture Winner
There really is no debate at this point that Best Picture is One Battle After Another‘s to lose. It’s won practically every precursor award its been nominated for and is expected to have one of the highest nomination counts for any film come Thursday. It’ll be tough to beat Paul Thomas Anderson’s film, but that won’t stop Sinners or another nominee from doing everything it can to try.
ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:
8/10
- Location
-
Los Angeles, CA
- Dates
-
March 15, 2026
- Website
-
https://www.oscars.org/
