Some of Hollywood’s biggest stars will vie to win Best Actor at the Oscars 2026, one year after Adrien Brody was awarded for The Brutalist. I’m excited to once again be in charge of tracking this race throughout awards season for ScreenRant and giving our take on who is the frontrunner, who is rising, and who is falling.
As usual, there is a strong mix of actors with differing careers and awards experience set to be major players in Best Actor. Previous winners like Leonardo DiCaprio and Daniel Day-Lewis have been linked to the category ever since their respective movies were announced. Timothée Chalamet is in a similar boat thanks to his ascension through the industry.
The actual Best Actor nominations will be announced this week on January 22, there’s no better time to make predictions for how the category will look.
Commentary and predictions updated on January 19
The Best Actor Nomination Frontrunners
With only five male performances eligible to be nominated by the Academy for Best Actor, the highly competitive field will include several strong contenders who miss the cut. The response to these performances, the awards they’ve received, and Oscar history help act as a guide. Here is my current Oscars 2026 Best Actor nominations prediction:
|
Rank |
Actor |
Movie |
|
1) |
Timothée Chalamet |
Marty Supreme |
|
2) |
Leonardo DiCaprio |
One Battle After Another |
|
3) |
Wagner Moura |
The Secret Agent |
|
4) |
Michael B. Jordan |
Sinners |
|
5) |
Ethan Hawke |
Blue Moon |
The two safest bets for nominations come Thursday are Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio. The stars have been entrenched in this race all season long. DiCaprio doesn’t appear at risk of a surprise snub, like what happened a few years ago with Killers of the Flower Moon.
Wagner Moura has continued to gain traction in this race, including his recent Golden Globes win. And while Michael B. Jordan lost to Moura there, he should still be recognized as a nominee come Oscar nomination morning.
Ethan Hawke is the one most at risk of missing out, in my mind, but he does have the Actor Awards nomination to support this positioning. Yet, he or Jordan could be on the outs if one of the following performances has enough support.
Actors Still In The Mix
The group of actors who are still very much alive in this race includes a great range of familiar faces. This includes previous winners like Brendan Fraser and George Clooney, as well as former nominees in Hugh Jackman and Jesse Plemons.
|
Actor |
Movie |
|---|---|
|
Brendan Fraser |
Rental Family |
|
Dwayne Johnson |
The Smashing Machine |
|
George Clooney |
Jay Kelly |
|
Hugh Jackman |
Song Sung Blue |
|
Jeremy Allen White |
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere |
|
Jesse Plemons |
Bugonia |
|
Joel Edgerton |
Train Dreams |
|
Lee Byung-hun |
No Other Choice |
|
Oscar Isaac |
Frankenstein |
The most likely actors to play “spoiler” are Plemons and Joel Edgerton. They’ve both done well throughout award season and are well-respected in the industry. I could also still see a world where Hugh Jackman or Brendan Fraser surprise thanks to the feel-good nature of their films.
Otherwise, I believe Clooney and Isaac are long shots after starring in big Netflix movies. Dwayne Johnson and Jeremy Allen White’s hopes that starring in a biopic would lead to Oscar glory should fall short, barring a huge surprise. Lee Byung-hun getting in would go against my prediction, but also wouldn’t be totally unexpected.
Predicted Best Actor Winner
Best Actor could really go in several directions by the time the 98th Academy Awards happen on March 15, 2026. But, my opinion on the race has continued to solidify and give the soon-to-be 30-year-old star the edge.
Chalamet is well-positioned to win the Best Actor Oscar this year. He ran a great campaign after his nomination for A Complete Unknown, so much so that his SAG win left me convinced he was going to deliver a surprise upset at the 2025 Oscars and become the youngest Best Actor winner ever.
That didn’t happen, but Marty Supreme is his chance to finally get that recognition. He’s already racked up key nominations and has started to win at major awards shows, too, thanks to Critics’ Choice Awards and Golden Globes. All the momentum is on his side.
Chalamet is viewed by many in the industry as a bright, young star who is making great career choices, so it’d make sense for this to be the moment Hollywood crowns him as the next face of the industry, putting him on his path to be one of the greats, as he wants to be.
It also helps that A24 has delivered Best Actor wins in two of the last three years. Chalamet gives them a good chance to go three for four after the Oscars 2026.
ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:
8/10
- Location
-
Los Angeles, CA
- Dates
-
March 15, 2026
- Website
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https://www.oscars.org/
