Since the shutdown standoff commenced, it was Republicans who were confident that Democrats would crack in the face of a GOP plan to vote again and again on the same bill while offering zero concessions.
But after six failed votes in the past two weeks — and with poll results showing the GOP is taking slightly more of the blame while plans for “permanent” cuts from President Trump have yet to materialize — it’s Republican resolve that is increasingly in question.
High-profile GOP defectors are now openly pushing their leaders to reverse course and come to the negotiating table over the thorny issue of reviving expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies.
Read more: How the government shutdown affects your student loans, Social Security, and more
And Trump has said multiple times this week he is open to healthcare talks — albeit with a shifting message on timing — saying Thursday at a Cabinet meeting, “We are the ones that are saving healthcare.” He also responded to the sense in Washington that Democrats are gaining ground by saying it’s the Democrats who are divided.
For now, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson say nothing has changed but with an acknowledgment that things are at least stuck.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson are seen on Capitol Hill on October 7. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images) ·Andrew Harnik via Getty Images
Their stance is under ever-increasing pressure after the Senate gathered Thursday afternoon and once again failed to reach the 60-vote threshold to advance either a Republican or Democratic plan to end the shutdown.
The votes around the GOP plan have also seen zero movement — with the same three members of the Democratic caucus and one Republican crossing party lines each time — even amid a GOP pressure campaign that is fully focused on moving moderate Senate Democrats.
Thune recently suggested to reporters that additional weekend votes may be tabled, as “I don’t know if that does any good.”
The Democratic tone has meanwhile become one of increasing ebullience that the party has the political momentum.
“The Republicans are just falling apart, they cannot justify their position,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on MSNBC on Wednesday, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer adding to Punchbowl News, “Every day gets better for us.”
But the question for economic observers and markets tracking the mounting costs of the shutdown is whether any possible GOP opening for talks will be enough to pry open the government relatively quickly — or whether it could simply be the start of drawn-out healthcare talks as both issues are negotiated in parallel.
Sen. Schumer has said that both healthcare and the shutdown need to be on the table simultaneously but has also promised that talks on enhanced Affordable Care Act healthcare tax credits could be done within days.
Plenty are skeptical that those healthcare policy specifics — not to mention how plenty of Republicans are opposed to offering any sort of lifeline to Obamacare — can be ironed out quickly.
Overall, the estimates are that the lapse in government funding will offer a drag on annualized GDP growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points each week it lasts, though at least some of the shortfall is made up when the government reopens.
The locked gate to Fort McHenry National Monument and Historic Shrine is seen on October 3 in Baltimore due to the government shutdown. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images) ·Andrew Harnik via Getty Images
At the core of the standoff is the issue of enhanced Affordable Care Act healthcare tax credits that are set to expire at the end of this year. No action would mean increased premiums for Americans covered by these plans offered outside of employer-run programs.
Extending these credits, which were first introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, is just one of three Democratic requests but the only one where detailed negotiations appear likely.
Others are reversing Medicaid cuts enacted by Republicans this summer, as well as limiting the president’s ability to unilaterally cancel previously approved government spending.
Meanwhile, as Obamacare marketplace enrollees are set to get notices about increased rates within weeks, a number of Republican lawmakers have suggested an openness to talks on the issue, with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia offering the starkest break from her leadership.
The stalwart Trump ally sat for a CNN interview and said of the healthcare issue, “Everyone’s just getting destroyed,” calling on the House to come back into session in part to open the healthcare talks.
“This cliff is coming for millions and millions of Americans where their health insurance premiums are about to skyrocket, so put your money where your mouth is,” she said.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is seen near the Capitol in September. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images) ·Tom Williams via Getty Images
Another question — especially if the calls for talks increase but GOP leaders remain intransigent — is what shape the eventual talks take, with signs that some senators are beginning to look toward taking matters into their own hands.
“In terms of concrete offramps, our current thinking is that some kind of ‘Gang of X’ process in the Senate is the likeliest path out of the shutdown,” wrote Tobin Marcus of Wolfe Research in a note to clients this week.
“Some kind of bipartisan process mediated by Senate moderates, with the implicit blessing of leadership on both sides, strikes us as a face-saving way for everyone to get some of what they want,” he added.
And a recent Axios report found that process apparently underway, with retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat, emerging as a potential organizer.
The timing question revolves around whether Shaheen and other Democrats are willing to accept a promise of future talks to end a shutdown — or whether healthcare concessions need to be passed at the same time as any deal that opens the government.
Shaheen herself offered few clues when she spoke to reporters at the Capitol on Wednesday.
“I think we need to open the government back up, and I think people need to sit down and talk to each other,” she said.
Editor’s note: This article has been updated to clarify that six votes have failed since the shutdown commenced. Including an initial vote on Sept. 19, before the shutdown began, a total of seven votes have failed to pass.
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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