Each year, fantasy football drafts are filled with pitfalls. These are players whose name value or last season’s stats cause them to go off the board much earlier than they should in season-long formats. Savvy managers realize that Average Draft Position (ADP) doesn’t always match up with what the experts really think.
To steer you clear of potential disappointments, we compared 2025 ADPs from season-long PPR leagues with rankings from two of the sharpest minds in the business: Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner of FantasyLabs. We’ve put together a list of players currently being selected much earlier than where our analysts have them rated. These aren’t obscure deep-league lottery tickets—they’re notable names who could undermine your season if you reach for them on draft day.
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Here are five of the biggest busts based on our expert vs. ADP gap.
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Javonte Williams, RB, Cowboys
Javonte Williams appears to be one of the more overdrafted running backs in 2025 fantasy football, particularly when his Average Draft Position (ADP) is compared with Raybon and Koerner’s rankings. While consensus ADP data places Williams around RB34, both experts have him much closer to RB43, highlighting a notable disparity. This suggests that fantasy drafters are still buying in based on his name recognition and early-career potential, rather than the player he is now.
Last season in Denver, Williams carried the ball 139 times for 513 rushing yards—an average of just 3.7 yards per carry—and found the end zone 4 times over 17 games. He also added 52 receptions for 346 yards but failed to score a receiving touchdown. Despite getting volume, the dynamic ability he displayed as a rookie was missing. Williams has never surpassed 12 fantasy points per game in any of his four NFL seasons and now heads into a new situation in Dallas with no guarantee of a lead-back role.
In Dallas, Williams joins a crowded backfield with Miles Sanders and rookies Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah. Williams has reportedly received some first-team reps in camp, but it’s too early to predict how the committee will shake out. If the Cowboys do split carries to open the season, drafting Williams where he’s currently going likely won’t yield a positive return. Raybon, in fact, has Williams at RB53, which would make him only the RB2 on his own team.
While there may still be hope for a post-hype breakout, the experts are pessimistic. Williams hasn’t recaptured his rookie year form, and his current competition, along with a diminished Dallas offensive line, make him a risky selection. Unless he falls to the late rounds, counting on him for significant production is likely a recipe for disappointment.
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Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
It isn’t just the running backs—our experts are also less optimistic about Dak Prescott’s outlook than much of the fantasy football community. Prescott’s reputation still holds weight, but Raybon is tempering expectations. Although Prescott is being drafted as the QB12 overall, Raybon ranks him all the way down at QB21. Koerner, on the other hand, is more optimistic, slotting Prescott at 11th among quarterbacks.
Prescott has been hampered by injuries in recent years, playing 12 or fewer games in two of the last three seasons, including just 8 contests last year. Even before his injury, he wasn’t posting outstanding numbers. In those 8 starts, Prescott threw 8 interceptions and just 11 touchdowns, while his completion percentage (64.7%) was his lowest since 2017. Now at age 32, his rushing production has also sharply diminished—he’s scored only 5 rushing touchdowns over the past four seasons.
The addition of George Pickens provides Prescott with another high-ceiling target to pair with CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, but both the offensive line and the running game remain areas of concern. While it’s unlikely the Cowboys will be less effective on the ground than they were last year, it’s tough to put too much confidence in a complete turnaround. With Dallas leaning heavily on Prescott and the passing attack, it is uncertain whether he’ll be able to withstand the demands of carrying the offense all season.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins
At first glance, Tua Tagovailoa’s fantasy profile seems solid—he topped the NFL in passing yards in 2023 and finished as the QB9 for fantasy. However, if you’re drafting him at his current 2025 ADP of QB16, you might be chasing past promise instead of today’s reality.
Let’s look at the expert consensus. Chris Raybon ranks Tua at QB20, while Sean Koerner puts him even further down at QB23. Both consider him more of a borderline QB2 than a dependable QB1 in standard leagues. Their caution is justified. In 2024, Tua missed six games after another concussion—his second extended absence for head injuries in three years—so risk of further injury has to be factored in.
Even when Tua played last year, his efficiency faltered. His average depth of target fell to 5.9—the lowest in the league. Despite a career-high 72.9% completion rate, this didn’t translate to big-time fantasy production; he threw just 19 touchdowns in 11 games and ranked as the QB21 in total fantasy points.
Tua still delivers excellent efficiency on short and intermediate passes and benefits from having Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as top options. But his lack of rushing production and ongoing durability concerns make it risky to expect a top-15 finish at his position. With more depth than ever in the late-round quarterback pool, Tua’s current draft price simply doesn’t account for the downside risk.
Best Ball rankings from some of the top industry experts are also available on FantasyLabs.
Davante Adams, WR, Rams
Davante Adams continues to be drafted as though he’s an elite fantasy option, but his current situation suggests he may come up short of expectations. He’s being selected around WR15, yet Raybon ranks him at WR20, indicating that managers might be hanging on to memories of the version of Adams from his days in Green Bay.
Now 32 years old, Adams is on the Rams and sharing looks with Puka Nacua. He’s no longer the clear top target in his offense, so between increased competition for targets and the natural effects of aging, it’s hard to justify using a third-round pick on him.
His path to Los Angeles involved a midseason trade last year: Adams began with the Raiders and then moved to the Jets, where he put up a solid 67 receptions for 854 yards and 7 touchdowns over 11 games. With the Rams, he’ll be stepping into the role Cooper Kupp left behind—a role that brought similar stats but also trended downward late in the season.
Adams still has plenty going for him as a polished route-runner and a threat near the end zone, but the days of expecting true WR1 upside are likely over. He’s still a quality player, just not the central focal point of his team’s passing game anymore. If you take him at WR15, you’re paying for a ceiling he’s unlikely to reach as a secondary option at age 32. Raybon’s ranking at WR20 is much more realistic, and drafting him higher than that is probably wishful thinking.
