The Financial Times as well as some pro-NATO military analysts say that we should expect President Trump to greenlight a limited number of long-range Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine. “The US president is expected to discuss potential deliveries and how Ukraine would use the weapon with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Friday,” FT writes.
But it’s all still up in the air (and Trump remains notoriously hard to predict), given Presidents Trump and Putin just had a “lengthy” and “positive and productive” phone call on Thursday, wherein the two lined up a series of high-level summits, including the expectation that Trump and Putin will have an eventual bilateral summit in Budapest to bring this “inglorious” War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end – as Trump put it in a Truth Social post.
Among many troubling aspects to this is that the systems would likely require American contractors to operate. Typically Tomahawks are launched by sea or air, but Ukraine will have to be given a ground-launched version.
Mainstream media has of late also confirmed Trump had already authorized US intelligence to help the Ukrainians with targeting energy sites deep inside Russia.
Whatever is handed over, which is unlikely to surpass several dozens, would have to be carefully used against “strategic targets”:
It is unclear how many Tomahawks the US would be willing to sell to Nato allies for Ukraine, especially since the Pentagon has been expending them at a higher rate than it has been buying them. “That’s what they’re probably arguing over right now within the Pentagon,” said Jim Townsend, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defence.
The US has bought only 202 Tomahawks since 2022, but has used at least 124 against the Houthis and Iran since 2024. It is also possible the US would use Tomahawks in any strike on Venezuelan soil. “If we do give Tomahawks, it won’t be a huge batch, and that means that Zelenskyy will have to be very careful in terms of how he uses these,” Townsend said, adding they would only be used on the most strategic targets with the greatest chance of success.
Already anticipating this, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has newly warned that Ukraine is plotting to use the long-range missiles to carry out “terrorist attacks” on Russia.
Zakharova said to reporters Wednesday that “the Kiev regime is not hiding its preparation of new terrorist attacks against our country aimed at escalating the conflict” – further underscoring that it was “obvious” these plans are being drawn up in anticipation of getting Tomahawks.
Alex Christoforou of The Duran podcast, commenting on the implications of Tomahawk transfers, offers the following perspective:
1. Further normalizes US/NATO direct attacks into Russia. In three years the US has accomplished what was seen as taboo for 80 years…it is acceptable for US to directly strike Russia. This is a precedent that will be leveraged in the future.
2. Further normalizes western boots on the ground in Ukraine. The US is making no secret of the fact that they will be in Ukraine operating the missiles. US/NATO boots on the ground are no longer off limits.
FT: The missiles could be delivered relatively quickly with the involvement of American contractors to assist in their use. This would eliminate the need for extensive training of Ukrainian troops and would allow the US to maintain control over targets and other issues.
Russia will likely respond “with irresponsible rhetoric that includes some nuclear saber-rattling,” as well as “a few larger strikes” on Ukraine.
At the very least, this will inject a new level of unpredictability into a conflict which is already spiraling toward direct NATO-Russia nuclear-armed confrontation.
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