-
President Donald Trump and his Justice Department have issued doomsday warnings recently on what would happen if a federal appeals court rules against the administration in a legal challenge to his so-called reciprocal tariffs. James Lucier at Alpha Capital Partners said the court could issue a ruling later this month or next month.
The Trump administration sees complete disaster for the U.S. economy if its reciprocal tariffs are struck down, revealing its level of concern as a court is expected to issue a critical decision soon.
On July 31, a federal appeals court heard arguments in a case challenging the tariffs’ legal basis under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA), and the judges expressed deep skepticism about the administration’s side.
In a note this past week, James Lucier at Capital Alpha Partners said a decision is expected by the end of September, but could come as soon as late August. A unanimous or near-unanimous ruling could give the Supreme Court cover to avoid taking the case immediately and reject the administration’s request to issue a stay that would keep the tariffs in place in the meantime.
The dire warnings also represent “a remarkable change in tune by the administration, which until now has always insisted that it had legal authority to get the deals done one way or another even if the IEEPA tariffs were struck down,” he added.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs helped leverage a series of trade deals, including an agreement with the European Union, which pledged to invest $600 billion in the U.S. and buy $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products, with “vast amounts” of American weapons in the mix. Similarly, the U.S.-Japan trade deal entails $550 billion of investments from Tokyo.
The U.S. hasn’t received immediate cash transfers in those amounts. Still, in a letter to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit on Monday, Justice Department officials suggested the government would suddenly owe everyone money—leading to catastrophe.
“The President believes that our country would not be able to pay back the trillions of dollars that other countries have already committed to pay, which could lead to financial ruin,” wrote Solicitor General D. John Sauer and Assistant Attorney General Brett Shumate.
They also warned that unwinding the trade deals would lead to a “1929-style result.” That echoed a post from Trump on Truth Social days earlier, when he predicted another Great Depression would hit America if the court rules against his tariffs.
