OPINION
By Andrew Morgan, Managing Director SFM
Alan Kohler (ABC) recently called out the gap between Australia’s climate ambition and its actual plan to get there. He’s right. Unless we get serious about natural carbon removal — at scale, and fast — these targets risk becoming just another policy headline.
The government has set out to reduce emissions by 6270% below 2005 levels by 2035 and reach net zero by 2050. According to CSIRO modelling, achieving the 2035 target will require removing about 100 million tonnes of CO? per year — roughly a third of our projected emissions that year — rising to about 150 million tonnes per year by 2050. The modelling also shows that to do this, we need around 10 million hectares of new forest by 2035 (half the size of Victoria), rising to about 15 million hectares by 2050 — more than twice the size of Tasmania. Most of that land would need to come from existing farmland, especially coastal and agriculturally productive regions. (ABC / CSIRO)
So, let’s be clear: land-based carbon removal isn’t optional; it’s essential. And the scale required is staggering. When we talk about meeting these targets, it’s not enough just to promise action: we must deliver credible, science based, sustainable models of carbon removal that also support communities, agriculture, and ecosystems.
At SFM, we’re not theorising about how to do this — we’re already doing it. We use proven models to turn ambition into action, converting underutilised farmland into high-integrity carbon forests that generate ACCUs, strengthen landscape resilience, and provide farmers with a stable, long-term income stream — all without displacing food production.
Importantly, this is not just about carbon. The plantation methodology is designed to deliver a dual benefit: sequestering carbon while also producing a sustainable supply of timber to meet ongoing demand for housing, fibre, and bioenergy. We can’t restore everything — we still need to eat, build, and fuel our lives, and our models show that with the right design, we don’t have to choose between climate action and economic productivity. We can — and must — do both.
Under our Tasmanian-based program, SFM has now planted almost 2 million trees across more than 2000 hectares in Tasmania, estimated to sequester over 500,000 tonnes of CO?. This is not small — and it’s not hypothetical. It’s real, local action at scale.
Susie Parsons, a seventh-generation farmer in Gretna Tasmania, who joined the program in early 2024 says the family is already benefiting from the financial return of leasing their land and can see the future opportunities it presents, both for their own property and for the environment.
“The additional value proposition of planting trees is the creation of shade and shelter belts, which can increase pasture production as well as improving water efficiency, soil quality and reducing salinity, waterlogging and erosion,” Ms Parsons said.
For landholders, SFM’s model delivers a blend of environmental benefits and economic return — exactly the kind of dual benefit model CSIRO says will be essential if we are to avoid unacceptable land use conflict in pursuit of our emissions targets.
SFM is now preparing to roll out similar programs across other regional areas of Australia. By maximising productivity from existing plantations and expanding the estate where it makes sense, we can deliver measurable emissions reductions while meeting national timber demand — a win-win for climate, industry, and communities.
Alan Kohler has warned that, “ambition without accountability is just advertising.” The CSIRO modelling underscores that, under current trajectories, we are falling short — particularly in the realm of carbon removal and land-based solutions. New forests, restoration, and agriculture forestry hybrids are not optional extras, but must be central to the climate strategy.
SFM’s novel model does more than tick boxes. It responds directly to the risks Kohler and CSIRO note:
- It uses rigorous carbon accounting and verification
- It works with farmers, not against them, preserving productive land while enhancing its utility
- It embeds ecological co-benefits (soil, water, resilience) that strengthen both legitimacy and outcome
To scale up proven models like those already utilised by SFM, Australia needs clear and durable carbon accounting regulations, strong incentives for landholders and forestry enterprises, land use planning that balances agriculture and forestry, and targeted investment in critical infrastructure.
If Australia is to meet its 2035 and 2050 climate targets, the CSIRO modelling shows that removing CO? through land-based natural solutions is not optional — it is essential. Alan Kohler was right to call for realism and for policies that deliver measurable emissions declines, not just rhetoric.
Australia’s future depends not just on targets on paper, but trees in the ground, partnerships with landholders, science in action, and accountability in outcomes. That is how we turn bold climate ambition into real, lasting progress.
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