In the spring, the Minnesota Vikings sat pretty, knowing that Daniel Jones had the fast track to a starter’s job with the Indianapolis Colts.
The Vikings’ chance at securing a 4th-Round compensatory pick is in jeopardy. A drop in quarterback snap count could shift the reward to a late-round selection.
If Jones plays over three-fifths of snaps for his new team, Minnesota will earn a 4th-Round draft pick next April via the NFL’s compensatory process. Anthony Richardson, Jones’ competition, recently healed from a shoulder injury, but a couple of months ago, his 2025 fate seemed up in the air.
As the preseason nears, though, the Vikings’ compensatory dream of a 4th-Round selection is in jeopardy. Why? Well, Richardson has been tabbed as the starter for the preseason.
Vikings Could Be Looking at 5th-Round Comp Pick, Not a 4th
Keep an eye on Daniel Jones’ snaps this season.
Anthony Richardson, Not Daniel Jones, to Start in the Preseason
The Colts have one of the few true quarterback battles this summer. Out of the gate, Richardson has seized a frontrunner status.
The Athletic‘s James Boyd wrote Tuesday, “Indianapolis Colts coach Shane Steichen announced Tuesday afternoon, following a joint practice with the Ravens, that quarterback Anthony Richardson will start Thursday’s preseason opener in Baltimore.”
“The plan, Steichen said, is for Richardson to play about a quarter and a half before he is replaced by Daniel Jones, who will finish out the first half. Jones will then draw the start for the Colts’ second preseason game against the Green Bay Packers, where he’ll be allowed to play about a quarter and a half before being replaced by Richardson for half a quarter.”
Jones has plenty of time to retake the QB1 post, but Richardson resides in a better August spot.
A Total Tide Change at QB1 for Colts
Not long ago, Jones, as the QB1 in Indianapolis, felt like a quasi-inevitability. Richardson would need more care for his ailing shoulder, and Jones had turned heads at organized team activities and mandatory minicamp.
But when the rubber hit the road at training camp, Richardson returned to full health and has edged Jones from the QB1 spot on the depth chart. The Colts spent a 1st-Round pick on Richardson two years ago. It would just be better for everybody, except Jones, if he transforms into a reliable starter.
Jones, generally speaking, now feels like the underdog.
The Compensatory Stakes for Vikings
Why does this matter? It’s quite elementary. Here’s the easy way to visualize it:
— Daniel Jones Plays < Than 60.6% of Snaps in 2025 = a 5th-Round pick for Vikings.
— Daniel Jones Plays > More Than 60.6% of Snaps in 2025 = a 4th-Round pick for Vikings.
Ask any draft savant; there’s a steep, albeit unscientific, drop-off between the success rate of 4th- and 5th-Round picks.
Cheering for Daniel Jones
So, this is simple. You, the Vikings fan, are a Daniel Jones fan. You want him to succeed, win the QB1 battle, and thrive until the moment he reaches 60.6% of snaps in Indianapolis.
The easiest path to this request, along with the 4th-Round compensatory pick, is Jones winning the top job outright.
If he does not, then you will have to hope the Colts later bench Richardson for Jones — and pray that doesn’t happen too late in the season when the 60.6% threshold is kaput.
More on the Jones-Richardson Battle
CBS Sports‘ Bryan DeArdo weighed in on the Colts’ quarterback battle this week, probably because it’s the highest-profile competition of its kind.
He observed, “Both Richardson and Jones are trying to revive their careers this season. Richardson, the incumbent starter, was hampered by injuries during his first two seasons with the Colts. But when he was on the field, Richardson struggled with his accuracy as well as his ability to take care of the ball.”
“He’s completed just 50.6% of his regular-season passes and has thrown more interceptions (13) than touchdowns (11). Despite those numbers, Richardson does have a winning record (8-7) as the Colts’ starting quarterback. Like Richardson, Jones is also a former first-round pick. But unlike his new teammate, Jones has a losing record as an NFL starting quarterback after going 24-44-1 in his starts during his six seasons with the New York Giants.”
The Colts have a vested interest in Richardson prevailing, dampening Jones’ chances of earning the QB1 spot.
DeAardo added, “Jones is responsible, however, for helping lead the Giants to their only postseason win since New York’s upset of the Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI. While his record as the Giants’ starter wasn’t good, Jones did put up solid numbers during his years in the Big Apple. During that time, he completed 64.1% of his passes with 70 touchdowns and 47 interceptions.”
“He also rushed for 15 touchdowns (including seven during the 2022 season) while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Whoever wins the job will get a chance to lead a Colts offense that features former rushing champion Jonathan Taylor, rookie first-round pick Tyler Warren, and receivers Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce.”
Remember the number: 60.6%. That’s the total of snaps Jones must hit for the Vikings to procure a 4th-Rounder. Otherwise, it’s a 5th-Round pick.
